Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)
Starting Bankroll ($1000)
Current Bankroll ($3306.84)
Record (21-6)
Play #28
Texas Over 55 (-110) CFB
$330.68 to win $300.60
Check back when this one goes final, there will be multiple plays on Saturday.
If u can't get my number and u want it, just buy it there. U should be risking an amount and not playing to win. U will make slightly less but that will work out because we are not flat betting, we are recalculating after each bet.
FalconWins
Falcon Sports
My plan for Saturday is coming together nicely. I've been going into each day with a rough outline of a plan but everything is subject to change during the day as lines move.
But (The Grand Challenge) is a process for me.
1. Update all data from all leagues. Everything must be kept current. Data that i use must be updated before any game can be ran through the Power Totals Formula.
2. Run games through the 8 step formula to identify my Power Total. Then compare my Mathematical Power Total to the books Perceived Total.
3. Line shop the potential Top plays to narrow down the group.
4. Run through a final filter to make the selection certain.
5. Make wager at the best book of the 5-6 that I have Daily access too. Spread around the bet if possible.
6. Email my small group of associates which includes my very good friend that runs a small local book. He is number one that the play goes too. In fact he is the only person thats one step ahead like me.
7. Post on Covers and hope for the best.
On my board right now and yes just like Sheldon and Leonard, I have a white board on a stand in my office. There are 3 selections written on this board right now. U have the first one. The next 2 are just potential plays right now. Lines could change today, enough that potential future selections would be changed.
That's a peek into my war room. What does your war room and plan look like?
Falcon Sports
I do want to discuss the (elephant in the room) this morning.
First off, I really enjoy posting (The Grand Challenge) on Covers. And I thank Covers for allowing me to do this.
But here is my dilemma and its a real dilemma. I stated before that I've dramatically increased my personal wagers. My entire bankroll, I'm risking 5% on each play and recalculating after each wager. That is becoming a large wager (large for me). I have no problem getting the wager for (The Grand Challenge) turned in, exactly as I post it.
But my real wager is coming from the 5% of the entire bankroll that I'm trying to get down. I now cannot get all this down against the opener on the overnight.
So here is my problem and perhaps someone can figure this out. I make the wager for The Grand Challenge and then email it out to some guys that are hitting it large, then I post it on Covers and its hit by several hundred bettors. Then if I have to wait to finish my entire wager, ill either get a worse line because its moved because of the bets coming in or I have to pay for it.
If I make a bet risking $3000 at (-110) it will return about $2775 or close but guess what it returns at (-120) or (-130) odds. My return is much much worse. So I'm screwing myself out of money.
This is becoming a real life problem for me. Any thoughts on solving it?
One solution is this. Just wait until about 90 minutes before games start. Do my process and make my entire wager. I suppose this is one solution but its difficult because I see some plays that jump off the board and if I wait to play them, the line is going to move.
It is becoming an issue getting my entire wager down at time, price and number that I want.
I won't leave Covers over any comments made, I stopped reading those. Boom that problem was fixed but if it continues to cost me money, then I can't continue to post the plays.
This was not a problem when my wagers were small but as they grow this is becoming a real issue.
Thoughts, PM or email me, don't comment here. I've told u that I'm not reading them.
Falcon Sports
Falcon,
I always look forward to your posts for both your insights and your plays. No doubt you're one of the better cappers around here, and you also have the wisdom to ignore the knuckleheads. I guess I'm missing somethingn tho, because I don't understand the problem. Why aren't you making your plays before posting?
Ok, so I've been walking and getting my 15,000 daily steps in. I haven't missed one day from doing this since March 1.
I think the answer to my problem may be to just wait. Stop hitting the opener and your foolish if u think they are going to let me continue to bet 3k on a cbb opener. There is no way for me to continue to be able to do this.
So if I just simply wait to do anything. I won't run the games through the Formula. If I avoid doing this, not even I will know the potential plays, so I won't know what I'm missing out on.
If I just wait, I can maneuver around, get my bet in. Let my guys get there bets in, then post the play, all say within 30 minutes of a start.
Seems like trouble but possible.
I've always been a ($100-$500) bettor. My interest are in my models. Getting down large amounts of money and I'm talking a couple grand and up has never been an issue for me because I just didn't do it. I don't need the money, I rely zero on any money from the sports betting business and id advise 99% of u to do the same. Keep this a fun hobby.
But its a real issue to get a large bet on an overnight cbb play, when your starting to beat their brains out.
Or I could just stop The Grand Challenge and do this. Just post all the potential plays for today. Today there is probably 20. Just put them all out there. Then privately do the 3 that are the Top ones in the Grand Challenge today.
But Play #29 will be posted later today and it will be minutes before the start of game, so check back.
Falcon Sports
I will say a couple more things and then I've got to start looking at the night games. I have Play #29 but not Play #30 yet for sure. Ive got the three for today in mind and written down but they are not locked in yet. I have to wait until Play #28 goes final.
I've seen alot in this business over the past 37 years and I've worked with alot of things myself. I've been model building exclusively since 2009 (I think).
I've never had anything like this Power Totals Formula. It has opened up a lot of things with alot of possibilities. When u know or as close to knowing that I can get,,,,, that your going to hit (57.14%) Winners or better, if u use the best. Or your going to hit 55% if u play them all.
That is one powerful thing in this business. If I wanted to, I could just continue to bet small ($100-$500) per play and then sale the plays for ($100-$200) per month. Add up what 500 people would give u, if u had that many people paying for plays. I could get 100 or more very easy but I'm not doing that. I've done that, anytime u open to the public, u will deal with crazies, I'm too old to deal with crazy, why do u think I stopped reading comments. I don't do crazy. I have a small successful side hustle (non gambling) and its private as well. I pick and choose who I want to deal with. Let me say that one more time for future reference. I pick and choose who I deal with.
See you for Play #29 later today.
Falcon Sports
Man this guy loves to talk. I respect his picks and I’ve made money but he loves to toot his own horn. It’s your thread falcon but ease up on patting yourself on the back and just post the plays. Good luck. And yes we know you are trying to go to tunica today you only mentioned it 10 times.
Man he 'likes to toot his own horn' and you are making human like sausage references?
Local shrink in these threads might put the two together and surmise, NO, you didn't eat a sandwich, BUT, you are hungry Big Willy and lets leave it to sports and cut the sexual tension you are portraying in here.
You can say almost whatever you like and Falcon can say whatever he likes in his thread and of course you can tell me to eat shit..... no one cares but I just thought it was interesting to comment here as a sharp/older man who knows how to read between the lines
And frankly, I agree, I just care about lines personally but Falcon is to be respected because he can deliver unlike some who like to open their mouth with a hoot face - lips out like they are used to it (whatever floats your boat, U.S. is not Russia!)
Established in 1995,
ur goin to b served a sandwich soon.
spit my coffee out 
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