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Emergency Thread for "THE SYSTEM"

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by jaw1:

kine thanks for the info ..question..will u be listing the system plays or do we do the research ourselfs?im not lazy but dont have a lot of time to do it..either way..good luck and thanks...


I'll be glad to post the plays, but normally someone will beat me to posting them so just check this thread or the my daily thread and it will be there.
 
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Posted: #102
Please post the system plays daily when they occur. Thank you!
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:

KP add friend please.


You got it - DONE
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by Dussey:

Thank you KP. Quick question: While the rules are simple to follow, will you have a thread with the plays for discussion?

Thanks again.



As I noted at the beginning of this thread, I will post the plays, but they are actually NOT up for discussion.  The reason being is that the more you look into these plays, the more you will find reasons NOT to play it.  Listen, we are going to be betting on the worst teams in the country with this system so any discussion would center around why we shouldn't trust them/play them.  I will be posting other "alert" plays that I like and I will post why I like them and I am all for discussion of those.
 
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Posted: #105
Thanks for these  pre-system plays KP....

Great stuff     
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by titans270986:

have u back tested past last season bro?


My bud Tone10 did and three years ago it did awesome, two years ago was around .500, and last year was the 37-10.  The problem with backtesting is that we don't know where a team was in Kenpom's ranking AT THAT POINT OF THE SEASON and we also can only go by the closing line that covers posts in their database so its a little tough to do.  Also, this is a modern system playing off of the motivations and attitudes of current college players.  With facebook, twitter, and a ton of other webistes and tools this is a new day of handicapping, backtesting this system wouldn't be very helpful.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by cburk:

KP, great write up and explanation, as always, your research is incredible.

Quick question, what line do you go by?  Opening line or at any point during the day if it goes to 6.5 make it a play?

Illi St is currently at -6 and they are 230 on kp, if it goes to 6.5 is it a play, or does the line have to open at 6.5?

Thank you very much for all your contributions to the forum!


I, personally, go by the lines available to me at Matchbook.  The rest of my friend's here are welcome to use whatever number they like.  The funny thing about the system is that we will almost always be on the number that is getting BETTER for us (aka - the line moving in our direction to get an even better number).  I WOULD NOT buy points etc. to get the number to 6.5.  One of the main reasons why is that we are making this play based on the perceptions of bettors (that our time sucks worse) AND the perception of the home teams (that they should win and win convincingly).  Buying points just to make this is a system play isn't how the system should work.  I will elaborate more on this point when I have time.
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by MidniteWriter:

Regarding Systems: I don't doubt that this is a good system. Systems can point you in the right direction, but many give out numerous games and to bet all of them blindly without further investigation would be wrong. Your system would probably be immune to the problem of too many games selected, but I am not sure. Still, checking fir reasins why a team that is rated so lowly would be favored in your system should be analysed further as there could be a legit injury reason. Also, systems change. However, I am a believer in them to the extent that they point you in a direction. With further handicapping, they can truly help.  



With all due respect, I completely disagree.  Of the 37 wins in 47 games the system had last year, you could have found A TON of reasons to not bet these games.  If you want to use this system to pick out games to study that is fine, but I can GUARANTEE that when you study them, you will make them a no-play or you will want to bet the home team. 

Yesterday, before I realized that Portland St/Sac St game fit the system, I studied it and was going to pound Portland St for a ton of reasons (very valid reasons) and then when I realized it was a system play, I trusted the system and made the bet and it cashed. 

Believe me, as I have already said, I DONT LIKE SYSTEMS and I love pure analysis of the games, but that being said, I like winning money more so I'll be following the system until it gives me reasons to throw it out.
 
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Posted: #109
are you going to be posting every system play?? sorry if this question has already been answered but I didn't look through 5 pages yet
 
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Posted: #110
KP,

Whats your take on a similar system to fade road favorites with poor kenpom rankings? 

Do you see any value there?  There is always value in the home favorites.

Thanks for the input brother 
 
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Posted: #111

disregard last post....my question was already answered

great system Kine

 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by swahili:

why cant you just  buy to 6.5 ?


Already touched on this, but one HUGE factor for this system is the "perception" of the home team that they should win and dominate.  Most of the time in this system its because they have already bet their upcoming opponent on their opponent's home court so they will be a sort of "letdown" effect for the home team (this is one of many reasons for the system).  If you just bought multiple points to make a game 6.5, it doesn't change the fact that both of these teams are very evenly matched and that you will most likely be getting the home team's best game.  Again, I will try to elaborate more on this when I get an opportunity.
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

I don't think this is us betting against Vegas who is increasing the line in an attempt to trap us into thinking it is a steam play or smart money that is moving the line up. The line is moving up because the Public likes favorites and if there is just too much Public money coming in on the favs, then they have to move the line up to attract money on the dog. That's where we come in and say "Thank you very much for the extra 1.5 to 2 points!"

So we are in effect looking for overinflated lines on favorites. Now sometimes it will be sharp money that drives it up, in which case we could be in trouble, but at least we are still getting a couple extra points.

Now, if a line goes down, it might not be the Square Public driving it down as they like favs. More often, when a fav is bet down, it is sharper money. So it is for that reason that we might think twice about playing the favs. But we are still getting some value in the extra 1.5 to 2 points. 

In the long run, it's all about getting value. It might not work on this game or that game, but over the course of many games, we will win a few just because of the extra points and that can be a profitable system.

GL


Very true - I don't believe in "Trap" lines anyway (ESPECIALLY with these types of teams we will be betting).  Its the fact that we are getting crazy value because a)the home team is getting credit for 4-5 points in the spread that they don't deserve, b)money will often go to the favorites thus moving the line in our favor even more, c) we are getting the more focused team (and often the team that has revenge from earlier in the year). 
 
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Posted: #114
KP ...my man


Just curious if this has bene discussed, but just my thought. Have you looked at the system losses and tried to find a correlation in the plays that lose? Maybe the are ranked  in a certain range in kenpom or on the tail end of road games or have a lookahead etc.

Just trying to kick it around and work out any kinks(not that you need my help)


GL brother and keep em comin'
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Boilermaker:

KP,

Whats your take on a similar system to fade road favorites with poor kenpom rankings? 

Do you see any value there?  There is always value in the home favorites.

Thanks for the input brother 


When dealing with bottom ranked teams - you are always better off if you:

TAKE THE POINTS

THROW OUT WHAT HAPPENED LAST TIME THEY MET

DONT GIVE CREDIT FOR HOMECOURT

So I am in favor of any system or theory of betting that has you backing teams that are getting points when they face other bottom level competition
 
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Posted: #116
Betting on the worst teams,gotta love that,lol

GL on your plays this year,and I will have to second the fact that if you want to follow the Prof.plays,the less you look at them the better,as I have taken his plays from this system you will find alot of reasons to go the other way,and you wont hurt his feelings by doing that.
I just hope we dont get alot of the cry babies playing them,thats how you get 20 pages of trash.
 
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Posted: #117

I have a stupid question. What is the chances of these lines being manipulated by the books because of this forum. I am sure that they monitor these threads to keep abreast of any new "systems" that come up. Maybe everyone could just read your thread and figure out what teams to play. It is a very simple system to follow and doesn't take much time. Simply log onto kenpom and use fan match. The teams and their rankings are right there.

Thanks Kine

 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

KP ...my man


Just curious if this has bene discussed, but just my thought. Have you looked at the system losses and tried to find a correlation in the plays that lose? Maybe the are ranked  in a certain range in kenpom or on the tail end of road games or have a lookahead etc.

Just trying to kick it around and work out any kinks(not that you need my help)


GL brother and keep em comin'


I did and the only factor that occured more than once was a injury to a starter.  So in 2 of the 10 losses, the system play didn't cover when our team was missing one starter due to injury.  But before you get to excited, it also won numerous times when a starter was missing as well so it isn't an auto "no-play" just because of the injury. 

The main reason why is that the lines on these games don't really move when there are injuries.  Most of the time, nobody even knows that there are injuries and often most bettors overreact to that knowledge anyway.  Its one thing to have Jimmer injured for BYU, but is it really that big a hit for Centenary when their fourth starter averaging 6.2 points per game is out?  Probably not, but m ore importantly, it isn't going to be reflected in the line so we shouldn't worry about it.  Awesome question and I wish I had a more concrete answer for it.
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by underwraps12:

Yes its 170 now, but Friday night after they finished their game kenpom had them at 180


Underwraps is right, when I checked the Kenpom ranking for Penn, the rankings hadn't been updated yet to reflect Friday's game.  On Saturday, Penn was ranked 180, my apologies for my oversight.  System was 5-0 yesterday including the Penn non-cover, I'll update in the post below. 
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I did and the only factor that occured more than once was a injury to a starter.  So in 2 of the 10 losses, the system play didn't cover when our team was missing one starter due to injury.  But before you get to excited, it also won numerous times when a starter was missing as well so it isn't an auto "no-play" just because of the injury. 

The main reason why is that the lines on these games don't really move when there are injuries.  Most of the time, nobody even knows that there are injuries and often most bettors overreact to that knowledge anyway.  Its one thing to have Jimmer injured for BYU, but is it really that big a hit for Centenary when their fourth starter averaging 6.2 points per game is out?  Probably not, but m ore importantly, it isn't going to be reflected in the line so we shouldn't worry about it.  Awesome question and I wish I had a more concrete answer for it.


Gotcha. Maybe you could keep track of the teams you are playing ranks in kenpom and maybe how many road games in a row they had before or perhaps if they won/lost their previous game....

Just spitballing
 
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Posted: #121
Drake

Thank Me Later
 
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Posted: #122
Jan 29th "Pre" System: 5-0

#293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win)
#259 Portland St. -9, won by 6 (system win)
#180 Penn -9, won by 2 in OT (system win)


 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

Drake didnt score a single point in 6 minutes

why are you laughing...
you think this is a joke
then you start another thread
NROPP had it on ML and +6
Professor systems had it 6.5
WIN WIN SITUATION ASSHOLE
 
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Posted: #124

Drake hit!!  Awesome

 
 
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Posted: #125
As I mentioned above, the line for Drake never got to 6.5 on Matchbook so it was a "pre" system play for me (if you want me to include in in the pre-system stats just let me know - it makes no difference to me).  Congrats to all who hit it and gobbled up the 6.5 at your books. 

Today, the near system plays are 2-0 with Niagara easily covering against Siena and Drake easily covering against ISU. 

The only other "near" "pre" system play would be CMU +9 against Akron (current Kenpom ranking 178), feel free to do whatever you like with that game. 
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