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What is the most important gambling concept that there is? Which concept separates the winners from the losers? What is the one idea that permeates all successful thinking and theorizing on the subject of gambling? In my opinion, it is the little-known statistical concept of self-weighting versus non-self-weighting gambling experiences.
A self-weighting gambling experience is when your expectation and variance are the same from play to play. But what does that mean, and why is it so important? To answer these questions, let's start with a simple example.
Why are all successful gamblers statisticians? To answer this, think about all the games that can be beat. This includes poker, blackjack, sports betting, and progressive slot machines, just to name a few. It does not include roulette, craps, baccarat, super pan nine, and non-progressive slot machines. The reason the games in the first group are beatable is that successful non-self-weighting strategies are available