Week 8 discussion/relative strengths

Question

STD:   14-8-1Favorites went 2-2 and OVERs went 3-1.Hamilton showed it DOES have a pulse after all and breaking some people&#x27;s hearts with a backdoor cover.  Did the Sasquatches find a quarterback?Breaking the season down so far here are the results in different categories....Home favorites     8-13 ATS   11-10 O/UHome underdogs  4-4 ATS      5-3 O/UPast history has shown that the home favorite covering percentage is about average for the first 7 weeks of the season. Home dogs prior to this season covered about 52% before week 8, so that is pretty close to what we would expect.What isn&#x27;t expected is the plethora of OVERs in the CFL, as prior to this season before week 8 UNDERs covered at a 53% clip.This correlates with what is going on in sports in general.......scoring is up in the NFL, in the NBA, in the NCAA and  in the NHL and the linemaker has taken notice and raised totals quite significantly.  Offenses are better and a combination of rule changes favoring  offenses and officials who are flag happy on defenders have given the advantage to the offense.  It is difficult these days to be a defender or an official for that matter.  Officiating seems to be getting worse and they are being called on it.....we see visual evidence all the time of missed calls that cost teams points and games.  It is isn&#x27;t as easy as it looks,....if you&#x27;ve officiated games in any sport, it is a thankless profession and like offensive lineman in football you aren&#x27;t really noticed much unless you&#x27;ve done something wrong.Here are my estimated lines and totals for week 8.  I am not estimating what Vegas will put out and we&#x27;re finding every week that Vegas varies one or two lines/totals quite significantly from what I have.Redblacks         &#x2B;2.5             Eskimos     55with RayMontreal               -6              Toronto       53w/o Ray  Montreal             -11              Toronto        48Tiger Cats           &#x2B;4               Bombers     55Riders               &#x2B;3.5               Lions           52

Indigo999 · Answer

STD:   14-8-1Favorites went 2-2 and OVERs went 3-1.Hamilton showed it DOES have a pulse after all and breaking some people&#x27;s hearts with a backdoor cover.  Did the Sasquatches find a quarterback?Breaking the season down so far here are the results in different categories....Home favorites     8-13 ATS   11-10 O/UHome underdogs  4-4 ATS      5-3 O/UPast history has shown that the home favorite covering percentage is about average for the first 7 weeks of the season. Home dogs prior to this season covered about 52% before week 8, so that is pretty close to what we would expect.What isn&#x27;t expected is the plethora of OVERs in the CFL, as prior to this season before week 8 UNDERs covered at a 53% clip.This correlates with what is going on in sports in general.......scoring is up in the NFL, in the NBA, in the NCAA and  in the NHL and the linemaker has taken notice and raised totals quite significantly.  Offenses are better and a combination of rule changes favoring  offenses and officials who are flag happy on defenders have given the advantage to the offense.  It is difficult these days to be a defender or an official for that matter.  Officiating seems to be getting worse and they are being called on it.....we see visual evidence all the time of missed calls that cost teams points and games.  It is isn&#x27;t as easy as it looks,....if you&#x27;ve officiated games in any sport, it is a thankless profession and like offensive lineman in football you aren&#x27;t really noticed much unless you&#x27;ve done something wrong.Here are my estimated lines and totals for week 8.  I am not estimating what Vegas will put out and we&#x27;re finding every week that Vegas varies one or two lines/totals quite significantly from what I have.Redblacks         &#x2B;2.5             Eskimos     55with RayMontreal               -6              Toronto       53w/o Ray  Montreal             -11              Toronto        48Tiger Cats           &#x2B;4               Bombers     55Riders               &#x2B;3.5               Lions           52

Indigo999 · Answer

Divisional home dogs that lost last week as away dogs have been 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O/U.     Green RidersHome winless dogs have been 13-3 ATS, 12-3-1 O/U.......Winless home dogs week&gt;5    6-0 ATS, 5-0-1 O/UTiger Cats

Indigo999 · Answer

Teams off away dog losses now a home divisional dog to the same team as last week 4-7, 7-4 ATS.  Green Riders

Indigo999 · Answer

Home non-divisional dogs off 2 straight losses.30-14 ATS    Redblacks, Tiger CatsTeams that lost two straight, now a home non-divisional dog to a team that won on the road last game........6-7 ATS  Tiger CatsHome non-divisional dogs off two straight losses versus a team off a home win.........13-5-1 ATS  Redblacks

Indigo999 · Answer

Unbeaten away favorites off a home win 5-8 ATS, 6-7 SU, 5-8 O/UThis moves to 4-6 ATS, 5-5 SU, and 4-6 O/U in non-divisional games.

Indigo999 · Answer

Is it just me, or does anyone else notice that the Bombers and the Eskimos are almost mirror images of each other this year?Neither team has been crushing their opponents this year, who haven&#x27;t exactly been elite, with the exception of the Esks&#x27; two very good wins versus the Lions.When the big four of the West start playing each other starting next week, THAT oughta be interesting, though I don&#x27;t know how you can have many more games that have gone down to the wire, both straight up and/or against the spread as we have so far.  It&#x27;s almost been like an NBA game...tune into the last 3 minutes and you&#x27;ve watched pretty much the whole game.  Still it&#x27;s better because the CFL is NOT the NBA, and the NBA is basically unwatchable.I&#x27;d like to see Saskatchewan see the writing on the wall and say to themselves, "we&#x27;re out of it this year, there&#x27;s four teams that are better than us in our division, let&#x27;s see if we have a quarterback that could be our future", and then play him.  Your backup came into the game in the fourth and got you two touchdowns, why not play the guy?Otherwise the Green Riders they are gonna have to go on a search to find THE MAN, or hope that a Matt Nichols-type falls in their lap, or try to get Travis Lulay to come to the Riders.  Lulay, without knowing much about him seems like a satisfied guy that has proven everything in this league and he doesn&#x27;t seem the type to seek greener pastures, even if someone threw a bunch of money at him.  The guy is a winner and he could be a franchise changer for a team like the Riders.  Vince Young next year?.....yeah, seems a bit farfetched.  Pulling your hamstring first week  of training camp tells me you&#x27;re not into football all that much.

spottie2935 · Answer

Nice query&#x27;s.  Saskatchewan needs to run the ball like they did against the Argo&#x27;s.18 rushes for 110 yards.  They have to take pressure off of their QB&#x27;s.They have had QB problems for too long not to have addressed it more aggressively. Running the ball or having a strong O&#x27; line  so you can run the ball.  When Saskatchewan has run the ball well they are 2-1 and 3-0 ATS.  Now granted the poor Eastern teams they ran against were Montreal 16-17 cover but lost by one, Hamilton 37-20, and Toronto 38-27. To me it seems like since this is the only thing a small western Canada team has the people come no matter how good the team does.  I am not an expert, but it seems like the Mgmt has not done a good job getting talent.

Indigo999 · Answer

My belief is that running the ball and playing defense wins at home and quarterbacks and a passing game wins on the road in football.The reason that Montreal and Saskatchewan are winless on the road is that their quarterback play is bottom three in the league along with Hamilton, also winless.   And watch Toronto go winless on the road too if Ray is out for extended time.  Montreal has everything but consistent quarterback play, so I still could consider them as dogs, but the other teams on the road, I&#x27;ll need double digits to want to contemplate putting money on them.The top four quarterbacks&#x27; teams are the Eskimos, Stampeders, Lions and Blue Bombers....their road record?  7-3-1 straight up and 7-4 ATS.....3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS as away dogs.

Indigo999 · Answer

LInes are out.Mine in brackets.Ottawa          &#x2B;2.5  (&#x2B;2.5)     Edmonton  55   (55)Montreal                      no lineHamilton        &#x2B;2.5  (&#x2B;4)      Winnipeg    59.5  (55)Sask              &#x2B;3. (&#x2B;3.5)       BC             54.5  (52)

Indigo999 · Answer

Sask &#x2B;3.5 (&#x2B;3.5)      BC  54.5    52

Indigo999 · Answer

Ricky Ray status evidently still not definite.Big difference in the totals of the Bombers 59.5 versus mine of 55 and 54.5 of Vegas versus mine of 52.  The Riders score much more at home and Winnipeg has been a scoring machine this year and someone has ssid NO MORE OVERs in their games.

Indigo999 · Answer

A home non-divisional dog, in a game where both teams score &gt;20.....24-13-1   ATS            (&#x2B;3.64)19-18-1   SU             (-.39)35-2-1     O/U           (&#x2B;11.99)

Indigo999 · Answer

Grey Cup odds....to be played in Ottawa this year.Edmonton &#x2B;250Calgary &#x2B;300Bombers &#x2B;800Montreal &#x2B;1000Lions &#x2B;500The one that stands out is the Alouettes &#x2B;1000,  They will win the East and the way it is set up if it is the same as last year, (correct me if I&#x27;m wrong) the number 4 seed of the West will go to the East and play the number two seed, which will be either Toronto or Ottawa.  The winner of that game will play the Eastern Division champions on their home ground.  So, if the Western divisional team in a crossover wins the first playoff round, as happened last year,  they then will have to go on the road for a second straight road playoff game, likely to be in Montreal.  Montreal has proven they can beat the best on their home ground....they and Calgary have by far the best defenses in the league.Likely West 4th seeds?   BC or Winnipeg.  Montreal COULD beat either of those teams on their home ground, which would put them in the championship at 10:1 odds.  Most commonly in the the NFL and the CFL the team with the worse regular season record covers...in the last 14 years of the Super Bowl, the team with the worse regular season record has covered, you can look it up. This has been 3-0 the last three years, though only 1-2 straight up in the CFL.Because I like to know such things, the team with the worse record in the regular season, in the playoffs has an ATS  record of 28-14 in the CFL database since 2007. It leaves all kinds of hedging opportunities for the Als....I haven&#x27;t pulled the trigger on this yet, but I may.  They win the  division, they get a home playoff game and if they win, then the Grey Cup,...seems like a &#x2B;EV play.  And a worse team, Ottawa, won it last year against the most dominant CFL team, beating the Stamps.  Is it for sure?.....of course not, that is why it is &#x2B;1000.  If they got to the Grey Cup based on current form, they would be about &#x2B;6 on a neutral field, &#x2B;250 on the moneyline, in the championship game.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

WOW Indigo.. That is very impressive find...Narrowed it down a little as well to take out playoffs and total higher than 5025-1 to the over.. Now the question is, can Ottawa score 21&#x2B; points against Eskies? I say yes as the Eskimos have allowed 21&#x2B; points in 11 times in their last 13 road games..

Indigo999 · Answer

Good to see you Aussie,Even if we take out the opponent scoring &gt;20,...if the home dog scores &gt;20 in a regular season....points&gt;20 and HD  and playoffs=096-33-3 ATS84-47-1 SU89-39-4 O/U

spottie2935 · Answer

Good stuff as always Indigo.

I like the Alouettes to win the East but I have a hard time thinking the weak East can pull the upset again. If you are looking just for an easy hedge opportunity then I am behind that 100%. This is setting up to be a nice play, but the CFL is out of this world crazy at times.

I think I will have 2 or 3 plays this week. Waiting on some lines to show or move.

Indigo999 · Answer

Hi Spot,....yes, with hedging in mind....I would basically be betting that the Als would win the division and have the Eastern final at home, most probably against the West's fourth best team, where I would have them anywhere from 0 to +4 at home.

At 10 to 1, I could hedge the East Conference final as well before the Grey Cup if I wanted to.

spottie2935 · Answer

Your thought process is very strong, If this plays out like it should I like the Alouettes to be in the cup final !  Good fortune as always.

Indigo999 · Answer

Play:1)  Ottawa &#x2B;2.5Unbeaten away favorites are play againsts. Ottawa a classic underachiever this year so far.In my opinion this, or next week in Winnipeg is where some wheels will fall off for the Eskimos.Teams that are away non-divisional favorites that will be dogs their next game have been 8-17 ATS, 11-14 straight up.Teams that average &gt;25 points/game have been 31-22 ATS as home dogs, 18-12 ATS in non-divisional games.  This moves to 7-0-2 ATS if our play ON team is off back to back losses.HD and tA(points)&gt;25 and not DIV and p:L and pp:L

Indigo999 · Answer

To give a greater amount of games I queried the above without the parameter is needing to be a dog at home.H and tA(points)&gt;25 and not DIV and p:L and pp:L22-4-2 ATS, 23-5 ATS

Indigo999 · Answer

H and tA(points)&gt;25 and not DIV and p:L and pp:L22-4-2 ATS (&#x2B;11.82), 23-5 (&#x2B;14.43) straight up

shooter19 · Answer

Jeez Indigo. You must have some street cred cuz the line is up to Ottawa -2.5 on Pinny. I love the number you got. I feel Esks are over hyped and we see that this weekend. I remember last years east final where Edmonton was favoured in Ottawa by 3 and got killed. I see the same this game too. Also like the TiCats to get their first W.  I&#x27;m playing the first game after a coach firing card. Haha.

Indigo999 · Answer

Good to see you shooter.....Hamilton shows up in a lot of my indicated plays, I just don't know if I can play them. Winnipeg a scoring machine which is a recipe for success on the road and Mo Liggett is back who is a difference maker...plus they go through teams like water in the last three minutes if and when they need to, and they're playing a team that gave up 60 points a few weeks back....I'll say one thing, if Hamilton is in this one, they're gonna have to score a ton this week.

BC is also an indicated play, which I'm on the fence about. The past two weeks and this week have been very, very tough and favorites have been 5-3 and OVERs 7-1, typically not good for me.

The 80/20 left/right brained decision making percentage is there for weeks like this,....I can have all the data, but my right brain (feeling/gut part) has to go along with the information gleened that my left brain (rational part) loves.

This week, my right brain is freaking out like the robot on Lost in Space...."WARNING WILL ROBINSON!!!!!, WARNING, DON'T DONATE YOUR BANKROLL!! CAUTION!! CAUTION!!"

So, you're probably right that Hamilton will do it for you.....I just don't think I'll get on the horse with you on that one.

Indigo999 · Answer

Betting percentages on the King of Covers Contest.Edmonton/Ottawa OVER 59%BC/Sask OVER 58%Winn/Ham UNDER 57%Lions -2  71%Eskimos &#x2B;2- 65%Bombers -2- 63%We have a reverse line movement game in the Redblack game....some people swear by this, which is when the public picks one side and the line moves the opposite way.  Commonly, but not always, the public loses in this case.  According to others, it means that "smart" and/or "big money" has gone against the public.  It doesn&#x27;t happen often in the CFL, but  it often does in NCAA football and when it does there is always a call that Billy Walters has entered the building.  A lot of it is rumors and inuendo that  fly around  and very few people actually really know who&#x27;s behind reverse line movement and books aren&#x27;t all that keen for others to know the who and the why.Walters made a ton in college football, but his winning percentage was about 55% to have made his fortune.  And that is a lesson for new bettors, making a fortune was done by hitting a ton of singles first and then the homeruns came later.  Hitting singles should be your emphasis for the first 10 years of your betting life....wish I had a guy that told me that when I started out.The books have done their job with the Bomber/Tiger Cat total as the majority are on the UNDER.  Bookmakers in their perfect world, are like the discount stores of the world....they make junk look attractive by pricing it "on sale" and what (mostly) women would not normally buy, they will because the price is sooooo attractive.  "Honey I got it on sale."  "Yeah, did you get my beer?"Covers&#x27; contest are a great way to find out what the public is thinking...I estimate the public is wrong about 55% (there&#x27;s that percentage again) of the time.  Some that want to learn can use those percentages to get off a play that they "love", and a very, very few will just fade who the public loves.I actually use a smilar filter in college football.    I bet away underdogs almost exclusively and if the covers contest has my indicated away dog at over 50% of the public on them, my play becomes a no-play.  I&#x27;ve found that despite a historical 60% covering percentage for my indicated plays, if the public is in love with them, the covering percentage becomes around 45-50%.if anyone wants to dedicate themselves to this, take a look at the KOC list this year and look at the away underdogs that the public likes...if greater than 50% of the picks are on the dog. and you keep track this year, you&#x27;ll see that they will cover less than 50% of the time.  In the past I&#x27;ve gone back over at least 5 years of past betting history to check this out....they never win over the course of a season.This year in NCAA college football the public so far likes FIU &#x2B;17 in week 1 to cover over UCF.

thirdperson · Answer

Most unusual line movement has to be Ottawa as favourite instead of Edmonton. Normally, winners keep winning while losers lose. However not impossible for Ottawa which tends to play better (4-1 ATS?) against Edmonton in previous meetings. Champions are often overrated but oddly Ottawa seems to be covering pointspreads well? Also isn't Edmonton's ton of injuries supposed to matter eventually?

Week 8 discussion/relative strengths

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