Week 4

Vegas rules states for a legal game 55 minutes minimum must be played.  There was an incident in Las Vegas a few years ago where visiting Wisconsin was about a 12 point favorite at UNLV...and were leading 23-0 in the second half and mysteriously(?) the power went out in the stadium before the legal time amount had been played....the game was ruled void for betting purposes and all betting  tickets were refunded.

We are in a middle of a weather delay with the Riders up 23-0 with a minute or so left in the first half.  Canadian rules state that if one team is up by >17 points and the game needs to be postponed that the team up gets the two points, which should have no bearing on what Vegas rules is a legal game.  If you have questions about that, talk to you bookmaker NOW, not after the game as sometimes they make arbiitary decisions that favor their wallets.

Indigo week 4 lines....

1)   Redblacks      -1   Bombers 56

2)   Alouettes      +9   Tiger Cats 55

3)   Argonauts    +4   Lions 55

4)   Roughriders -3'  Stampders 54

 

If the lines are in the neighorhood of what I have them at....early leans to Redblacks, Riders and Bombers OVER

 

 

 

Game becomes complete in the Riders/Argos game.

Perhaps for the new Argos' coach, the light bulb will come on and James Franklin will go the way of Jonathan Jennings and be put on the scrap heap.

Otherwise, we'll have no choice but to keep fading the Argos as their defense is bad as well....they are looking very much like the worst team in the league and the bookies are going to have to put out lines in excess of 7 points at home and 13 on the road to be able to back them.

Lines are out, Indigoo lines in brackets.

 

Alouettes        +12'  (+9')        Tiger Cats     56'   (56)

Redblacks         -3'    (-1)         Bombers       54'   (56)

Argos              +6'    (+4)         Lions            55   (57')  

 

Have to tip my hat the bookmakers this week, these lines are meant to dissuade action on one side and those sides I would lean to, the lines are shaded to make one hesitate to take the side I'd want.  In other words, the lines are skewed to give value towards the side of the bookmaker.

It's doubtful I'd take the Redblacks giving more than a field goal.  Every season I admire the Redblacks program more and more, but this week there is a very good possibility that they will lose either the running game or the turonver battle, which are predictors of losing for a home favorite.

Home favorites losing the rushing yards battle cover 22% of the time, and those home favorites losing the turnover battle cover 22% of the time.

 

 

Last line up

Roughriders -3   (-3')    Stampeders   51  (54)  

Play:

1)  Roughriders -3

For quite a few years the Stampeders crushed everyone in their path and this year it is payback time.  The Stamps' defense, their staple in their Grey Cup seasons is now below average.  Bo Levi injured last game to his throwing shoulder or collarbone area, doubtful he'll play with that type of injury, but I'd actually prefer he'd play as his 5 yard dink passes would be right up the Riders' alley.  At least Arbuckle will be a threat down the field for Calgary, but if he starts it will be his baptism of fire in a hostile environment, especially after his heroics that won the game for Calgary against the Lions.    I'd expect he'd throw a couple of interceptions against the good Sask secondary.  Turnover advantage in every football code leads to victories.

Fajardo threw for 430 yards against the Argos and actually probably left 50+ passing  yards on the table missing some open receivers.  Is he THAT awesome or is the Argos' defense that pathetic?....it's probably a bit in between.  One thing I know is that it will be the coaching blunder of the year if they decide to go back to Zach over Fajardo at quarterback when he gets healthy.

We'll take Saskatchewan who I rank right now as the third best team in the league after Ottawa and Winnipeg.

 

Home divisional dogs of >7 points have been 3-11 ATS....Alouettes.

Home non-divisional dogs of >6 points have been 25-6 ATS, a perfect 8-0 ATS and sraight up before game 6!!!...    Argos

Could we really take the Argos?

If I heard that anyone but James Franklin was starting at qb, I would....I promised myself after watching him play against the Riders that I would never open my wallet with him quarterbacking for the rest of my normal life....but what if I pleaded insanity?

Thinking it over.

 

A couple of trends that I've discovered in the last couple of days...1)  Big non-divisional home dogs tend to cover, and 2)  Big divisional home dogs have gone OVER.  If you haven't discovered this by now handicappers when doing your research, always separate divisional games versus non-divisional games.....IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

2)  Montreal/Hamilton OVER 56'

Home divisional dogs of >=7 points before week 14 have been 9-1 OVER.

Home divisional dogs of >=7 points and a total of >50 have been 8-0 OVER, going OVER by an average of 11 points with the average points scored of 65.

12-8 ATS season to date.

I have a 29-12 ATS angle favoring Winnipeg, but for whatever the reason, this has not performed too well in a team's fourth game....probably will pass on this game, as my initial feeling was to take Ottawa.

Here is the angle that you can copy and paste  in to sportsdatabase.com

AD and line-n:line>7 and playoffs=0 and not DIV  and game number<6 and game number

 

Hmmm, Bombers although it is week 4, have only played 2 games, this mightly cause me to re-thinks it Mateys.

72% of the King of Covers population on the Bombers....we don't like that, as the public loses about 55-57% of the time in the CFL.

And what's not to love?....Bombers been a covering machine the last 2+ seasons.....I reckon my friend Mister Polar Bear will be on 'em this week again and he's not been astray too often this season when he stays off the firewater.

Here's another interesting look at the game...

Teams that have been outyarded their last game and now are away dogs have been 163-129 ATS, covering about 55.8% of the time.

If they won that game despite being outyarded, this moves to 45-31 ATS, 59.2% cover rate.

If our team is an away dog in a non-divisional game and  won despite being outyarded  last week, this moves to 20-12 ATS, 62.5%......Bombers

 

Decided to go with the data:

Taking the mighty, mighty, Bombers

Plays:

3)   Bombers +4  -107

2)   Alouettes OVER 56'

1)   Riders -3

 

Great info.

Sure tboon, gratitude is a very underrated quality in life..have a very good season.

Probably the last play for me this week.

The Argos are gosh awful and most times when you lose it looks foolish, but this one will be particularly so.

The data for this is very strong, and I tend to play games based more on data than I could, that is for sure.

Play:

4)   Argos +7

based on a 25-6 ATS angle and 8-0 against the spread/straight up angle mentioned in thread 86.  I also expect the Argos to win the rushing yards battle and non-divisional home dogs that out rush their opponent have been 50-15 ATS.

did you know that the lions have 3 away wins in their last 18 road games

good luck this week as always

no, I didn't know that, but of course I do know that Mr. James Franklin is supposed to be riding the pine tomorrow and Mr. Bethel-Thompson is set to lead the Argos (to greatness).   Could/should be the beginning of the end for Franklin's CFL career.

Even if an amoeba is playing quarterback that is 7 points/game better than what they've been getting.

All games with the exception of the Argos, has moved the way I've played them, must be that million dollars I am putting on each game that is intimidating the lines maker....

Not.

I look for the Alouettes to give Hamilton some difficulty for awhile tomorrow, but not strong enough for me to put money on the game.  Putting money on both the Alouettes and the Argos on on the same weekened would be asking too much of myself.

Looking like Bo Levi is out for awhile....Arbuckle is gonna have to be some facsimile of Fajardo for Calgary to hang with the Sasquatches in Riderville.  This would be the game of the season for Saskatchewan....a chance to knock off the defending champs at home in front of their rabid fans.

 

streak>2 and p:margin>=20 and pp:margin>=18 and total>50 and line<=6

I am taking the risk on both crappy CFL teams.

Good luck this week.

I took MTL +13 relying only on this query:

Montreal is now +13.5 -104 at Pinnacle. And the under dropped to under 55 -111. 

Soon after posting their CFL openers Pinnacle had Montreal +4 -107 for the 1Q. Now it's +3.5 -101. 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts guys. Either lots of smart people or somebody with a lot of money has driven the total down...typically in the CFL my plays move against me about 60% of the time....this is one of those other times where it would have benefited me to wait...we won't be correct every time in our assessments.