Week 1 Indigo lines

Obviously the books put out lines for the NFL months in advance and they put out CFL lines the Monday of the following weekend's games.  The CFL can be beaten and it is a regression league for you newbies out there.  I am not predicting what the books' lines will be, I am using my own relative strength lines and when there has been a differential my lines have been better than the books' 55-60% of the time in the past three seasons.  Posting lines helps me with my handicapping and it stimulates thought and sometimes, disucssion.  Every year it seems, we get a couple of people that announce on my thread that my lines are soooo off.  What that means is I will have very different opinions than what the bookmakers' opinions will be in some cases, usually once or twice a week.  Opinions are cheap and sometimes entertaining, and for some they can be very frustrating who don't get it... don't get your knickers in a knot when they differ.  If you feel that I am an imbecile, attempt to make money by fading me........ok?  It increases the ratings when  my readers rellize that not all are  adoring fans.

Week 1

Home team/away team/total

1)  Tiger Cats -4 Riders 54 

No excuses this year for the Tiger Cats....the other three divisional rivals are down, Masoli has had two full years to get all the nuances  of the league and to get chemistry with his receivers, etc., they had better do something BIG this year.  I was perplexed they couldn't beat Ottawa last year and I will put them into the "head case" basket if they don't produce this year.

2)  Edmonton -8 Montreal 55

Edmonton always seems to have high hopes and with the exception of their Grey Cup winning season with Riley quarterbacking them, they have fallen far, far short.  This year they're picked last and have a new quarterback in Harris.  Their defense is usually a sieve, but this year it may have to win some games for this team.  Montreal I've picked to be a back door covering machine.  It remains to be seen whether Mike Sherman can coach in the CFL.  He is trying to produce a big smash mouth type of team and I don't know if you can do that in the 3 down league.  He is seemingly wanting to win all of his games 17-14, but the problem is that his defense allows over 30.

3)  Calgary -6  Ottawa 48

It will be interesting to see if Ottawa's quarterback is effective or not this year, whoever that may be.  I've suspected that Ottawa's success is based more on their offensive coaching rather than on their actual quarterback play.  We'll find out soon enough with Harris now a Eskimo.  Ottawa typically plays Calgary very tough in their early season games and of course there is the Grey Cup revenge angle....teams throughout the years typically play very well against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs the year before.

4)  BC pik Bombers 56

Bombers should be the early season favorites to win the GC.  They haven't taken the next step to win the post-season division yet.   A lot of things point to them being the best in the West, but their very good pointspread record the past two seasons have me maybe avoiding them early season, unless Mister Bookmaker puts out an irresistable line, like making them a field goal dog or more here,....not likely I'd say.  Lions made the biggest splash in getting Riley....who is tough, but who tends to fling the ball all over the lot, and sometimes the other team catches a lot of his passes.  Their defense should be much improved with the new coach coming over from Calgary, but being head honcho is a lot different than being a coordinator.

Good fortune to all this season except for the books, let them get pissed off that we are winning.

Early indicators are to play the Als, Riders and Redblacks as away dogs.

Bombers possibly, but only as away dogs, NOT as a pik or away favorites.

Oh Indigo I really think Als, Riders and Redblacks are going to be really week this year to losing players. No elite quarterbacks at all be careful

Hi Freaky,...nice to see you...yes, makes it tough when your CFL team doesn't have an elite quarterback.  Obviously no one has made a play or can the pull the trigger yet on a CFL regular season game.

Toronto crushed in their first exhibition game and James Franklin is talking about how he is a new man.  Between him and ex-Lion Jennings we have heard the same thing over and over again.

The league as a whole this year looks to be down at the quarterback position and on the road your quarterback will be the key piece in covering games.  

Doubt that?  Look at Peyton Manning's, Tom Brady's  (132-81-8), Aaron Rodgers' (82-57) and Drew Brees'  (125-100-6) road record in the NFL

Hi Guys !  We are getting close now.

I hope Peg is -3.  They did what they were supposed to in the preseason.  I dont discredit the preseason as much as most people.  Depth is important  too.

As this league goes so do the Dogs that mean Al's,Riders,Argo's in most games. Lions, Peg and Esks on the road and then there is Calgary.

The Al's and Argo's may struggle again but I don't foresee a 12 game cover drought like the Al's in 2017.  They won't be terrible.  Collaros might be poised to have a good year.    

Nice to see you back spottie, and indigo I truly value your opinion

likewise freak,  here is to a great season  

Some week one trends.

Teams that won <12 games last year as away dogs in game 1, have been 21-9 ATS, probables....   Als, Redblacks

On the other hand those teams winning >=12 games have gone 1-6  on the road,..........versus Riders

Rumour has it that Mike Sherman is deciding between taking a club coaching position in Brazil or to accept a a voluntary assistant offensive line coaching position in his son's Pop Warner team in Texas.

He announced on twitter that he'll make a decision on his coaching future in the next 24 hours.

And no lie, there actually is a NFL rules type league burgeoning  in Brazil, from what I've heard.

You know how on Forrest Gump, they are talking to Forrest and he is telling us, "Momma, she has got the cancer.".......that is us, and the CFL....a sickness, truly.

There are people out there  who think a cure will be found any day now.

Ok, a few lines have trickled in from Bookmaker...one surprise.

Bookmaker opener                       mine

Tiger Cats -2'    49'                    -4    54

Eskimos  -10     52'                    -6    55

Stamps    -6'     52'                     -6'   48

Lions       -3      52'                     -3   56   

Perhaps the bookmaker is a freemason or a numerologist as they seem to have a strange fascination with the number 52.  Wasn't expecting that we'd be getting  3 points for the Bombers....yummy.             

Plays:

1)   Montreal UNDER 52

2)   Ottawa UNDER 52'

East non-divisional away week 1 dogs with less wins last year than their week 1 opponent have been 2-11 O/U (-4.88) 

Plays:

3)   Tiger Cats UNDER 49'

Away non-divisional dogs week  that won >9 games last season and also won more games than their week 1 opponent have been 19-5 ATS and 9-15 O/U the first 4 games of the season.

I am pretty conflicted about the side in this game...West teams in this situation have been very, very good, but the line is screaming to take the Riders, which we don't like taking what the bookies are enticing us to do.

If I see a +3 with the Riders I will take them

4)  Alouettes +10

A hold your nose play.  In Pro American and Canadian football it has been very good to play on teams that have stunk their previous season in their first game of the following season.....it is regression at its finest and of course it looks pretty foolish if Montreal doesn't cover.  Putting your name plus your money behind a game can be tough, especially when taking a previously terrible team.  Some of you guys should try it some time and put your record behind your picks.   

Do I think Montreal is a Grey Cup contender?....no amigo, but I expect they'll be cashing more than they have the past couple of seasons.  

Days of the week matter in the CFL....non-weekend away dogs have been 46-24 ATS the first three games of the season as away dogs, and dogs of >7 points have been 13-7 ATS on Thursday and Friday games.  "That's strange you say, how could a day of the week possibly matter?" 

I don't know why, but that's what the data says....it may be pure randomness, but the database is going back 10+ years.  Some of you will need a rational reason why.....I don't.

Eastern division teams do play poorly in the West, but not early season, as they are 24-15 ATS in their first three games of the season on Thursday/Friday games and 11-4 ATS as dogs of greater than 7 points on those same days.

And, I am a Pipkin fan,...he has showed me much, much more than James Franklin  for the Argos and Davis for  Ottawa so far. Montreal's issues has been their butterfingered receivers and their bad defense and probably also bad coaching,......I think Pipkin will have a very good season this year for Montreal and quarterbacks are the ones that cover games on the road.  I like that the Alouettes have a former CFL quarterback coaching them, a very good hire I think, given the circumstances.

Wow you have cuts, good luck indigo

As long as those cuts don't get infected I'm fine with it Freak.

Play:

5) Riders +3

Western division teams as away dogs versus the east, regular season, 61-39 ATS.

If those West division teams are in games 1-5 this moves to 21-8 ATS and 7-1 ATS if they won >10 games last season.

Riders.

Riders and Collaros.  I maybe have been thinking too much but IF this guy plays okay the Riders can do very well.  They have been okay even without good QB play.

Some team is going to take down the Stamps one of these years.

I spoke about regression earlier....fading last year's results will win you more than you'll lose.  I researched once on how teams do in week one by fading what would have been the line last year, calculated purely on points differential from the end of the previous year....those teams who had the disadvantaged line covered about 60% of the time, when the difference was >3 points.  I'll make the point that this line isn't what Vegas would have put out as a line, but purely based on points differential.

An example is week 1 NFL for the coming season,...Green Bay had an average per game points differential of -1.50 last year, and the Bears had a +8.62 differential.  Subtracting the Packers differential from the Bears gives you a 10.12 difference/game, and adding the Bears home field advantage of 3 points...the calculated line would be Bears  -13.75.  

So, we're all over the Bears this year because they're giving only 3.5/4 points, right?

Nope, we go against the calculated advantage, when there's >3 points of difference between our line and Vegas'.

So, let's calculate the points differential line for the CFL in week 1.

End of season points differential for regular season games only in brackets.

a)  Hamilton (3.46)            Saskatchewan (.33)   

b)  Edmonton (.12)            Montreal (-9.94)

c)  Calgary (8.50)              Ottawa (1.00)

d)  British Columbia (-1.94) Winnipeg (+8.24) 

Calculated lines, giving  home field advantage of 3 points

1)  Hamilton -6.13

2)  Edmonton -13.06

3)  Ottawa -10.50

4)  BC +7.18 

In regression early season mode, we'd be looking at the Riders, the Alouettes and the Lions.   

Correction thread #22 above, number 3 calculated line should be:

3) Calgary -10.50

Thanks Bold....always look forward to this league.

1) Riders +3 loss ....they might have themselves a qb,...the rookie looked very, very impressive.  They missed two kicks and allowed a special teams touchdown,...Riders' defense looked very good against one of the best offenses in the CFL.

2) Riders UNDER win

3) Montreal UNDER

4) Montreal +10

5) Ottawa UNDER