The Formula 1 season kicked off last week with the Bahrain Grand Prix, in which Ferrari's Charles Leclerc admirably fought off a challenge from reigning Drivers' Champion Max Verstappen and claimed victory. Leclerc would be joined on the top two steps by his teammate Carlos Sainz Jr., as Ferrari enjoyed a perfect 1-2.
That 1-2 was made possible by a retirement from Verstappen, who fell victim to reliability issues in his Red Bull. Now car No. 1 will look to strike back at the location of last year's great drama, in Jeddah, though Saudi Arabian Grand Prix odds have Verstappen third after a disappointing qualifying.
We'll take a look at the field and break down some F1 betting value with our Saudi Arabian Grand Prix picks and predictions.
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 3/25/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Saudi Arabian picks (post-qualifying)
Race winner pick
We took Max Verstappen to top both qualifying and win the race on Friday and though he qualified a disappointing fourth, we aren't moving off him to win now.
Throughout practice, it was Verstappen and Charles Leclerc atop timing sheets but the constant refrain from F1 analysts was that Verstappen was struggling to find single-lap pace, while his long-run timing was on point. That concern was proven correct during Saturday's qualifying, when Verstappen simply could not convert the long pace he showed during practice into a single lap.
On the flip side, the Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. repeatedly proved to have fast-lap pace but were unable to put together a long run in free practice two — when conditions are most like race conditions — because of contact with the wall. We expected Verstappen and Red Bull to have a pace advantage here, where it's full throttle for nearly 80% of a single lap, and that could still be proven — just over the course of a full race as opposed to in a single fast lap.
Verstappen's race craft shouldn't be discounted here, either. Everyone remembers Verstappen at last year's Saudi Arabian Grand Prix because of the brake check controversy involving him and Lewis Hamilton but Verstappen also had a number of bold, impressive overtakes. Among those was a launch down the inside from the second row, where he'll start tomorrow, from a safety car restart.
Verstappen has the race craft and the long pace to win here — he has 50 laps to prove it.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Race win (+275)
Fastest lap pick
Hey, we mentioned it and we're going to repeat it: Ferrari's fast-lap pace is unquestionable here.
Leclerc was quickest in FP1, FP2 — which, again, along with qualifying is most similar to race conditions on track — FP3, and Q1, before going second-quickest in Q2 and Q3. Verstappen is favored to set the fastest lap but oddsmakers seemingly have gotten it backward as Ferrari's pace in a single lap has been proven here consistently.
Either Leclerc (+175) or his Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. (+400), who was quickest in Q2, are strong bets to set the fastest lap of the race. Leclerc is the superior driver, so we're going to take him here, but a play on either or both Ferrari drivers isn't a bad idea by any means.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest lap (+175)
Saudi Arabian predictions (pre-qualifying)
Double result pick
A competitive but frustrating Sunday turned into a nightmare for Max Verstappen at the season-opening grand prix in Bahrain, as a failed fight for first turned into a retirement with the Red Bull car suffering a loss of power. Despite the retirement, however, there was reason for optimism coming out of Bahrain.
While Ferrari earned the 1-2 and looked every bit the competitive car preseason promised it to be, Red Bull's power on the straights was evident. Verstappen posted the quickest times in sector one, made up of two long straights, and beat Charles Leclerc to the braking zone of turn one repeatedly during a several-laps-long fight. Red Bull's advantage over Ferrari in the straights averaged out to be around 6 kilometers per hour.
Red Bull's power advantage was a good sign for the team ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, at a place where power is king as roughly 80% of an F1 lap at the Jeddah street circuit is done at full throttle. The early returns backed that notion up, as Verstappen was second-fastest in FP1, 0.116 seconds back of Leclerc, on hard tires (the slowest compound) while Leclerc was on softs (the fastest compound). That repeated in FP2, when Leclerc again edged Verstappen by 0.14 seconds on softs, while Verstappen was on mediums.
F1 fans will remember qualifying in Jeddah just a few months ago in the penultimate race weekend, in which Verstappen was putting in the lap of a lifetime setting the fastest times in the first and second sectors, before locking up in the final corner and hitting the wall. He'll right the wrong of last season this weekend, taking pole position Saturday and winning on Sunday.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Fastest qualifier and race win (+150)
Points finish pick
The Shakespearean drama that is Alpine (formerly Renault) was, in its ideals, to launch into the upper echelon of F1 with the new regulations. While that was proven unlikely well before the start of this season, the complete openness of the midfield last weekend was encouraging for the French team. More encouraging still was that Alpine capitalized, joining Ferrari, Alfa Romeo, and Mercedes as the only teams to secure double points in Bahrain.
Like Red Bull, Alpine's power unit impressed in the first sector in Bahrain, with the times of Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon among the best outside of Red Bull and Ferrari. And like Red Bull, the performance of its power unit bodes very well ahead of an absolutely rapid lap in Jeddah. While there isn't a ton of value in either driver after the books picked up on a strong start, there's some value in choosing between Alonso and Ocon.
Alonso, a former world champion, seemingly has his reputation preceding him on the odds board as he is priced at -225 to finish in the points (Top 10) compared to -138 for Ocon. This is despite Ocon gaining four places to finish seventh, while Alonso slipped down to ninth after finishing eighth (results aided by late retirements) in Bahrain. That carried into Friday in Jeddah, where Ocon finished eighth in FP1 and FP2, while Alonso finished 10th and 12th.
Taking Ocon to finish in the points feels solid barring something unforeseen and provides a bit more safety than taking him to out-qualify Alonso (-120), with the former champion still capable of driving right on the edge in a one-lap setting.
Pick: Esteban Ocon - Points finish (-138)
