F1 Belgian Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds – Spa-Francorchamps 2025

Lando Norris starts at the pole position for the fourth time in 2025. He's won each of the other three races where he's started with the lead, and we expect another on Sunday.

Eric Rosales - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jul 26, 2025 • 12:05 ET • 4 min read
Lando Norris McLaren F1
Photo By - Imagn Images. Lando Norris has been perfect from the pole position in 2025.

The 2025 F1 season is halfway home, and the McLaren teammates are setting the standard again, this time for the Belgian Grand Prix.

Lando Norris won the pole for Sunday’s race. He's nine points back of the overall points leader and teammate Oscar Piastri, who will start second.

Ferrari’s Charles LeClerc will start in the second row with Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, who sits a distant third in the overall standings.

Continue reading for free Formula 1 betting picks and predictions and F1 odds for the Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday, July 27.

2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix prediction and picks

  • Race prediction: Norris to win (+110)
  • Best bet: Verstappen podium finish (-175)

2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix odds

Driver bet365
McLaren Lando Norris  +110
McLaren Oscar Piastri +137
Red Bull Max Verstappen +650
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +1200
Mercedes George Russell +3300
Ferrari Lewis Hamilton +10000
Williams Alex Albon  +10000
VCARB Isack Hadjar  +10000
Red Bull Yuki Tsunoda +10000
Mercedes Kimi Antonelli  +25000
Kick Sauber Gabriel Bortoleto  +25000
VCARB Liam Lawson +25000
Haas Oliver Bearman +40000
Alpine Pierre Gasly +40000
Kick Sauber Nico Hulkenberg  +50000
Haas Esteban Ocon +50000
Williams Carlos Sainz +50000
Aston Martin Fernando Alonso  +50000
Alpine Franco Colapinto +100000
Aston Martin Lance Stroll +100000

Odds as of 7-26.

F1 Belgian Grand Prix 2025 pre-qualifying favorites

Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are drawing the shortest odds to win the 2025 Belgian Grand Prix in the lead-up to weekend qualifying. 

Norris has won four races this year, including two straight, while Piastri has five victories under his belt. Both drivers have finished on the podium in 10 of 12 events, helping lead McLaren to the top spot in the Constructors' Standings by a healthy margin.

And Belgium could represent a first for one of them as neither has won the Belgian Grand Prix. Norris has particularly struggled, never finishing better than fifth in six attempts. Piastri came close in 2024, though, finishing as the runner-up to Lewis Hamilton.

With a win this weekend, Hamilton would match Michael Schumacher for most Belgian GP checkered flags in F1 history. The odds appear stacked against him at +1400, and he's yet to record a podium finish in 2025, his first season with Ferrari. 

However, his win at Spa-Francorchamps in 2024 was his last victory and only second since 2021. Can he - or Max Verstappen, the guy who won here three straight years from 2021-23 - turn back the clock, or will McLaren continue its torrid pace?

F1 Belgian Grand Prix 2025 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (+110 at bet365)

The race start for Sunday mirrors the finish last time out in Britain, with Norris taking the checkered flag and Piastri finishing in second.

Norris accomplished that feat after starting in third – the first time he’s come from behind to take a win this season.

His record as a frontrunner is perfect this season, as he’s gone on to win all three times he’s won the pole.

If Norris does match Piastri in the wins column, it will be because of his ability to race in the rain at Spa-Francorchamps, with showers in Sunday's forecast.

Best bet: Max Verstappen podium finish (-175 at bet365)

It’s been McLaren’s year, and more headlines are coming from off the track at the Red Bull camp than on it, but Max Verstappen has shown his ability as a driver with what’s clearly been an inferior car.

He’s been really fast at Belgium, running the fastest lap in qualifying the previous three years (though losing the pole each time for various infractions), and taking the checkered flag three of the last four.

After a disappointing fifth in Britain after starting with the pole, I like him to bounce back and find his way on the podium Sunday.

F1 Belgian Grand Prix 2025 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Lando Norris 2 Oscar Piastri
3 Charles Leclerc 4 Max Verstappen
5 Alex Albon 6 George Russell
7 Yuki Tsunoda 8 Isack Hadjar
9 Liam Lawson 10 Gabriel Bortoleto
11 Esteban Ocon 12 Oliver Bearman
13 Pierre Gasly 14 Nico Hulkenberg
15 Carlos Sainz 16 Lewis Hamilton
17 Franco Colapinto 18 Kimi Antonelli
19 Fernando Alonso 20 Lance Stroll

Previous F1 Belgian Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2024 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2019 Charles Leclerc Ferrari

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Charles Leclerc +400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $400 if Leclerc wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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