The 98th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre.
To get ready for the event, we're rounding out our Oscars picks and predictions with four underdog picks worth considering.
Let's break down the Oscars odds, starting with the biggest race of the bunch: "Sinners" vs. "One Battle After Another" in Best Picture.
4 Oscars underdogs worth targeting
1. Best Picture: "Sinners"
Chalk reigns. Or, at least, it has in recent years. The last time a film won Best Picture with plus-money odds was when "Parasite" won in 2020 (for the 2019 calendar year), according to Sports Odds History.
"Oppenheimer" and "Everything Everywhere All at Once" were behemoths on the day of their respective ceremonies, and even if last year's gap narrowed between "Anora" and "Conclave," the favorite ultimately prevailed.
But hey, it's not called an "underdog" for nothing!
While "One Battle After Another" is the betting favorite, and Paul Thomas Anderson probably locked up Best Director with his DGA win over the weekend, there is a world where "Sinners" takes home Best Picture, making it worth a stab at +300.
Sinners has more nominations (16) than any movie in Academy Awards history. Two of the three films with 14 (the previous record) won Best Picture, while the third ("La La Land") was a considerable favorite.
And even if Anderson wins Best Director, that doesn't always mean Best Picture will follow. Yes, five of the last six Best Picture winners have had that year's Best Director at the helm (Jane Campion for "The Power of the Dog" is the exception). But five of the 10 from 2010-19 didn't cross over.
"Sinners" made nearly $300 million at the domestic box office. It was a bona fide hit that stayed in the consciousness throughout the year. The early release is no longer a Best Picture death knell (see "Oppenheimer" and "Everything Everywhere All at Once"), and it was critically acclaimed. As a value proposition, it's worth a speculative wager for those reasons alone.
2. Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"
This pick is a true "long shot." Conventional wisdom has Timothee Chalamet taking home his long-expected first Best Actor trophy in his third nomination for his work in "Marty Supreme."
But it wouldn't be the first time a "young" actor gets passed over for an iconic role in favor of a seasoned veteran. Look at Leonardo DiCaprio (who, himself, is nominated here for "One Battle After Another"). Leo was nominated four times before finally winning for "The Revenant" in 2016. Oh, and don't forget that he didn't even get nominated for "Titanic" or "The Departed," films that won Best Picture with him in the lead role.
Leo winning here would be a fun bit of business, echoing the past. Still, if we want to target true value, Ethan Hawke is a Hollywood mainstay who is well-respected throughout the industry and has a pair of Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations under his belt, but no wins.
I like him as a true dark horse in frequent collaborator Richard Linklater's "Blue Moon." It would be the biggest Best Actor upset, as it's become one of the chalkiest categories around, but he's a great "he's due" option.
3. Best Supporting Actress: Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas, "Sentimental Value"
This category has been all over the place throughout awards season. For a spell, Amy Madigan had leapfrogged everyone for her role in the horror movie "Weapons." That edge disappeared when Teyana Taylor won at the Golden Globes, pushing her to betting favorite status for the Oscars.
So while that may indicate Taylor will carry momentum into the Oscars, it's not a lock. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas has been present at every milestone along the way, picking up a couple of wins in the process, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
With the race fairly tight as it is, she is a slight underdog relative to Taylor or Madigan.
Taylor is appropriately favored, but I don't think Madigan should be in the second spot. "Weapons" isn't represented in any other category. While that isn't a disqualifier, "Sentimental Value" is stronger than it may have initially seemed, especially after Stellan Skarsgard won for Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes.
Yes, there's danger that Lileaas and Elle Fanning cancel each other out in the category, but I'm not overly concerned. Lileaas has received the most vociferous praise among that cast (Skarsgard excluded, perhaps), and I like her as the top challenger to Taylor here.
4. Best Cinematography: "Train Dreams"
That "Train Dreams" is represented in Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay (from the novella by Denis Johnson), it has a legitimate shot at snagging a victory here. It might not be a true long shot; it's currently running third behind "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another," and with neither figuring to be an overwhelming favorite in this particular category, this is one of the safer underdog picks to take.
The film's visual language, as it explores the Pacific Northwest forests by way of lumberjacks, is its calling card. "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" will clean up in other categories, so spreading the love to a well-liked movie such as "Train Dreams," especially since some of its tricks are truly remarkable (following the falling tree, for example).
