The 98th Academy Awards are well on their way, and prediction markets are moving swiftly in response to the latest headlines from the world of film. But the official nominations are yet to be announced, which means there’s still a (small) chance that some of the names dominating the markets won’t even be on the list.
The nominations markets are hotting up, though, as traders put their money on the stars and titles they think are guaranteed to get a mention when that all-important announcement comes.
Key Takeaways:
- The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed on 22 January
- Every Oscars category has five nominees, with the exception of Best Picture which has 10
- Prediction markets are available for both Oscar nominees and Oscar winners
Let’s take a look at some of the Oscar nominations markets attracting the most attention right now, as we count down the days to the big reveal.
Oscar Nomination Markets: The latest from Kalshi
There are 24 different award categories at the Oscars, but as always attention is firmly focussed on a handful of the most hotly contested prizes. Over the past few days, we’ve seen significant price jumps (and falls) for some of the biggest names in Hollywood.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets allow users to trade ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on specific films and actors, with prices fluctuating in real-time based on precursor wins like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
Here is the current state of play for the nomination markets across the six major categories:
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Oscar Nominations for Best Picture
Frankenstein and Sentimental Value are currently trading as near certainties, with 97% implied probability of a nomination for each title. Bugonia has also risen in price in recent days; it’s now sitting at 89%.
There are still some good opportunities in the market for those betting on a late-season surge, though. Long shots include F1, currently trading around 21¢.
Oscar Nominations for Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is the clear market leader with a 99% probability. That’s fueled by his recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice momentum. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) is also now seen as a near definite, though his price for the actual win remains far lower than Chalamet's.
Ethan Hawke is another strong ‘yes’ at 76%. The price of a ‘yes’ for Jesse Plemons has risen recently, but at just 35¢ he could still be the value play to go for.
Oscar Nominations for Best Actress
Dominant forces in the nomination market for Best Actress include Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), at 99% and 98% respectively.
The implied probability of Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) has jumped. She’s now sitting at a 79% chance to secure a nod. The price of Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) is also on the rise, she’s at 44¢.
Oscar Nominations for Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is widely expected to scoop this prize, so it’ll come as no surprise that he’s top of the nominations market at 99%. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) also comes at a hefty price of 94¢.
The prices of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) have plummeted since the Golden Globes, but this isn’t the only precursor event. Both are still in with a chance of nomination.
Oscar Nominations for Best Supporting Actor
Traders are putting their money on Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), whose price is up to 98¢ following international precursor events.
The price of Paul Mescal (Hamnet) is also on the rise. He’s surged to an 88% nomination probability, putting him up there with the favorites in the supporting actor market.
Oscar Nominations for Best Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) is the clear frontrunner for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Her price is now up to 99¢. Amy Madigan and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas also have implied probabilities over 90%.
Keep an eye on Ariana Grande (Wicked For Good). Once at 93¢, her price fell to 40¢ ahead of the Golden Globes, but it’s since been rising steadily. Her probability is now sitting at 53%.
Oscars Prediction Markets Explained
Precursor events, like the Golden Globes for example, can impact the prices of Oscars prediction markets. But this event, in particular, is far from a sure-fire way of predicting who will and won’t be nominated. To find out why, take a look at our guide to Oscars prediction markets.
FAQs
Is a 90¢ price on Kalshi a guarantee of a nomination?
A price over 90¢ isn’t a guarantee, but it’s a strong statistical indicator that a person will be on the nominations list. It reflects the collective confidence of traders who lose real money if they are wrong.
Can I sell my ‘Yes’ contracts before the nominations are actually announced?
Yes, Kalshi is an exchange, so you can trade your position at any time to lock in profits or cut losses. If your 50¢ pick rises to 80¢ after a precursor event, you can sell immediately without waiting for the Academy's reveal.
Why do Kalshi prices differ so much from Polymarket?
Each platform has a different pool of traders and different liquidity levels. Kalshi attracts more institutional/legal traders, while Polymarket is global and crypto-based. This price gap is often used by savvy traders for arbitrage.
Does a Golden Globe win automatically spike a nomination price?
Not necessarily. Traders will typically buy based on rumours and sell when news is confirmed. Sometimes, this can result in prices dipping following a Globe win, rather than spiking. In some cases, implied momentum can be more impactful than an actual win.
