America celebrates a milestone 250th anniversary of independence this July 4, and among the various festivities across the country will be the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, a neighborhood of Brooklyn, NY.
Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo are the overwhelming favorites in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, but my hot dog eating contest predictions have identified some intriguing value plays for the competition.
Find out why I believe Geoffrey Esper should be in your portfolio on Saturday afternoon, and don't miss coverage beginning with the women's competition at 10:45 p.m. ET on ESPN3, ESPN2, and ABC.
Who will win the men's hot dog eating contest?
| Name |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | 91% | -1011 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | 7% | +1329 |
| James Webb | 4% | +2400 |
| Geoffrey Esper | 1% | +9900 |
| Crazy Legs Conti | 1% | +9900 |
Odds as of 7-1. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Best picks to win the men's hot dog eating contest
Joey Chestnut (-1011 at Kalshi)
There's hardly any value in backing a favorite this big, but there's no value in a losing ticket, either.
Joey Chestnut has won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest all but two years since 2006. He was only beaten once, when Matt Stonie out-ate "Jaws" 62.5 to 62 in 2015.
Chestnut was barred from the competition by Nathan's Famous in 2024 due to a sponsorship conflict. There was speculation that Chestnut would miss the competition for the second time in three years due to a legal issue, but that is not the case.
Chestnut holds the world record with 76 HDBs (hot dogs plus buns) eaten over a 10-minute span, earned in this competition in 2021. No other competitor has even reached 60 HDBs since then, including 2024 winner Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti (58.5).
Geoffrey Esper (+9900 at Kalshi)
If you must chase a long shot in this contest, take a flyer on Geoffrey Esper.
Esper has been second in this contest in four of the past five years, peaking at 53 HDBs in 2024.
He is a world-record holder in 19 disciplines of Major League Eating, including Hooters Wings (281 in 10 minutes) and SPAM (9.75 pounds in 10 minutes).
Who will win the women's hot dog eating contest?
| Name | Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Miki Sudo | 88% | -809 |
| Michelle Lesco | 7% | +1329 |
| Domenica Dee | 4% | +2400 |
| Cherish Brown | 2% | +4900 |
| Larell Marie Mele | 2% | +4900 |
Odds as of 7-1.
Best picks to win the women's hot dog eating contest
Miki Sudo (-733 at Kalshi)
If I could only bet either Sudo or Chestnut to win, I would take Sudo in a heartbeat.
Sudo should be a bigger favorite than Chestnut. She is actually undefeated since her first Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest appearance in 2014, and the only reason she didn't win it in 2021 is because she skipped it due to pregnancy.
Sudo is the women's world-record holder with 51 HDBs and has repeatedly crushed her biggest challenger — Michelle Lesco — by double-digit dogs.
Domenica Dee (+2400 at Kalshi)
The women's contest is crying out for a new challenger for Sudo, and Domenica Dee offers promise.
Dee made waves as a rookie last year, beating a field of perennial also-rans in a qualifier with 23.5 HDBs consumed, and checking in third in the big dance with 21.5 HDBs, just 1.25 off Michelle Lesco's second-place effort.
Best Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest prop picks
In addition to outright winner markets, Kalshi also offers markets on "number of hot dogs eaten" for multiple competitors, with various alternate lines on Chestnut and Sudo available. You can also predict whether or not the world records will be broken, and who the winner will be without Chestnut and Sudo (if Chestnut wins and your pick comes second, you win).
Joey Chestnut 72+ hot dogs eaten — No (-163 at Kalshi)
Yes, I believe Chestnut will win. No, I don't think he'll break his own record of 76 HBDs, or even come that close.
Since Chestnut reached that incredible mark in 2021, he's only consumed 63, 62, and 70.5 wieners in three subsequent competitions.
Take this down to -180.
Winner without Chestnut — Geoffrey Esper (+1011 at Kalshi)
I think Bertoletti's title and 58 HDBs in 2024 is being way overvalued in this market. How quickly we forget that Bertoletti, an infrequent competitor at Nathan's, only downed 46.5 dogs in 2025.
Esper is in good form at the moment, as he just defended his Strawberry Shortcake Eating Contest title in Mattituck, NY on June 20.
This is playable to +750.
I'm also looking at Esper to eat 51+ hot dogs at -104, which would be two shy of his personal best.
Domenica Dee 25+ hot dogs eaten (+355 at Kalshi)
I like the price we're getting on Dee to go for a lifetime best. It's only 1.5 HDBs off her personal record set last year.
Dismiss the No. 3-ranked women's professional eater at your own peril.
This is a play for me at +200 or better.
Recent Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winners
Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.
| Year | Men's Winner | Hot Dogs | Women's Winner | Hot Dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Joey Chestnut | 70.5 | Miki Sudo | 33 |
| 2024 | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Miki Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
| 2012 | Joey Chestnut | 68 | Sonya Thomas | 45 |
| 2011 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Sonya Thomas | 40 |
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest rules
In order to compete in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, a person must be under contract with Major League Eating (MLE), which has sanctioned the event since 1997. The men's field is typically about 20 contestants deep and typically includes:
- Any past champions
- Winners of regional qualifying contests
- Wild-card winners of a qualifier
- Special invitees of MLE
The contestant who consumes (and keeps down) the most hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes is declared the winner. Vomiting results in an instant DQ.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs
Who are the favorites to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Joey Chestnut is a -1011 favorite to win the men's 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Miki Sudo is a -733 favorite to win the women's 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest held?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is held at the original Nathan's Famous location on the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Coney Island, a neighborhood of Brooklyn, NY.
When is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest begins at 10:45 a.m. ET on July 4 with the women's competition. The men will compete at 12:30 p.m. ET.
How can I watch the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The women's competition will be broadcast live on ESPN3, and encored later in the day. The men's competition will be aired live on both ABC and ESPN2.
When did the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest start?
The first verified Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest took place in 1972 and was won by Jason Schechter, who ate 14 hot dogs and buns, paltry by today's standards.
