The king is back, and Joey Chestnut is ready to take back his crown on the Fourth of July at the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.
The 16-time champion returns after a one-year hiatus, and linemakers expect him to pick up where he left off, installing him as a -1800 favorite in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds.
Miki Sudo is also a -1800 favorite in the women's category, and her dominance has been no less impressive, with 10 Mustard Yellow Belts in an 11-year span.
With such lopsided odds on the favorites, books are offering other markets, including Over/Unders on hot dogs eaten, head-to-head matchups, and who will "win" in fields excluding Chestnut and Sudo.
Here are my three favorite Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions and free picks for July 4, 2025, including a fade of the champ.
2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions
Total hot dogs eaten by Joey Chestnut — Under 71.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Joey Chestnut is a legend who has absolutely dominated this competition, routinely beating his nearest competitor by 15+ hot dogs. Nobody else has ever surpassed 62 glizzies, while Chestnut has cracked the 70-dog plateau six times — including a record 76 in 2021.
That said, nobody can outrun (or outeat) Father Time forever. Chestnut is now 41 years old, and professional eaters decline with age just like other competitors. When Chestnut previously won the event in 2023, he did so with 62 dogs, and he ate 63 when he took the belt in 2022.
It will be a steamy 84 degrees in Coney Island on Friday, and it isn't easy to keep up a torrid eating pace in that sort of heat. In addition, you've got to question just how motivated he is to keep beating his own records after almost two decades at the top.
2025 Men's winner without Joey Chestnut — Patrick Bertoletti (-110 at DraftKings)
Patrick Bertoletti won the belt last year by devouring 58 dogs, five more than second-place Geoff Esper. He is at No. 2 in the rankings at Major League Eating (yes, this is a real thing), and being able to get him at a pick'em price to beat everyone except Chestnut is good value.
Bertoletti is aiming to join the exclusive 60-dog club in 2025, and eating next to Chestnut should keep him extra motivated as he tries to keep up.
Total hot dogs eaten by Miki Sudo — Over 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Miki Sudo's records might be even more impressive than Chestnut's. Not only has she claimed the women's championship in 10 of the last 11 years, but the amount of dogs she devours would place her in the Top 5 of the men's category.
The only year during that span where she didn't win was in 2021, when she chose not to compete because she was pregnant.
Mayoi Ebihara was Sudo's closest competition last year with 37 dogs eaten. However, the fast-rising 29-year-old isn't competing this year, which makes Michelle Lesco (career-best 30.75 dogs in 2021) the -105 favorite to win a field excluding Sudo.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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