Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, October 10 at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.
This should be a classic matchup of opposites with the elite striker in Barboza taking on a grappling specialist in Amirkhani. UFC odds have Barboza as a -245 favorite while Amirkhani, who signed on to replace Sodiq Yusuff last week, comes back at +194.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this featherweight bout and give our picks and predictions for Barboza vs Amirkhani at UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen on October 10.
Barboza vs Amirkhani fight odds
| Method of Victory | Edson Barboza | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | -245 | +194 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +120 | +1,800 |
| Win by Points | +280 | +550 |
| Win by Submission | +2,300 | +420 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
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Barboza vs Amirkhani betting preview
Barboza is coming off his featherweight debut in May, where he lost via split decision to Dan Ige. He has now lost five of his last six fights, although all of those defeats came against highly-ranked fighters.
The 34-year-old Brazilian has been competing in the UFC since 2010 and was a lightweight contender for years before deciding to drop down to 145-pound weight division last December. With a background in Muay Thai, Barboza is a versatile striker who utilizes devastating kicks to every level.
Amirkhani is fresh off a first-round submission victory over Danny Henry at UFC 251 in July, allowing him to bounce back from a knockout loss to Shane Burgos last November. The Finnish fighter with Kurdish roots has won three of his last four fights and is 6-2 at the UFC level with three wins coming via submission.
Amirkhani is a dangerous grappler who averages 3.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and has ten career submission wins. While more than 50 percent of his significant strikes come on the ground, he has improved his boxing over the years.
Barboza vs Amirkhani Tale of the Tape
| Edson Barboza | Makwan Amirkhani | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 145 lbs | Weight | 146 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 20-9 (12 KO) | Record | 16-4 (1 KO) |
Barboza vs Amirkhani UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Barboza to win by points +280 - Amirkhani might have a far better record over the last few years, but Barboza has faced far superior opponents. Virtually all of Amirkhani's wins have come against unranked foes and in his only two fights against ranked opponents - Shane Burgos and Arnold Allen - he lost.
As for Barboza, his last two losses came by split decision against Dan Ige and Paul Felder, who are both currently ranked in the Top 10 of their divisions, and both fights could have easily gone Barboza's way.
Two of Barboza's other defeats over the last three years came against the cream of the lightweight division in Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov. And his lone win since 2018 was an impressive knockout of Dan Hooker who is currently No. 4 in the lightweight rankings.
While Amirkhani is dangerous on the ground, Barboza should be able to keep this fight standing up thanks to his impressive 80 percent takedown defense, and keep in mind that number is deflated by the eight times he was taken down in one fight against Khabib. While Amirkhani's boxing is solid, Barboza's striking is on a whole other level.
We think Barboza will win the fight due to his advantage standing up, but at -245 there isn't much value in taking the outright bet (unless you use it in a parlay). But considering that eight of his last 13 fights have gone the distance - including four of his previous six wins - there is value in betting on him to win via points.
