College football betting in the SEC begins this week with several games featuring some of NCAA football's most prestigious programs, including the Florida Gators who head to Mississippi to face the Ole Miss Rebels.
Florida posted an 11-2 record and an Orange Bowl victory in 2019, while Ole Miss will head into the season with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin after finishing 4-8 last year.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best picks and predictions for Florida vs Ole Miss on Saturday, September 26, with kickoff at noon ET.
Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a hot and humid day at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. Temperatures will be between 66 and 84 degrees, with humidity at 86 percent. There is a currently a 37 percent chance of rain with breezes reaching up to 4 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Florida: None
Mississippi: Sam Williams LB (out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Florida's offense should be exciting this year. Once Kyle Trask took over as their starting quarterback in Week 3, the Gators averaged 33.4 points per game over their final 10 games of the year.
Trask returns after completing 67 percent of his passes for 2941 yards and 25 touchdowns last year, and he should have plenty of weapons including Kyle Pitts, who might be the top tight end in the nation, wide receiver Trevon Grimes and running back Dameon Pearce. Florida also added former five-star RB recruit Lorenzo Lingard, who transferred from Miami.
Ole Miss had the worst pass defense in the SEC last year, surrendering 278.3 yards per game through the air, and could be just as bad this year needing to replace two starters in their secondary, their entire defensive line, and one of their top linebackers in Sam Williams who is currently suspended.
As for the Rebels offense, they're still figuring out their identity with Matt Corral getting the starting QB job over John Rhys Plumlee, their leading rusher from a year ago. Kiffin and new offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby will look to make the offense more balanced after relying on their running game in 2020 but implementing changes like that takes time.
Ole Miss won't be able to keep pace with Florida's high-paced attack in their first game of the year. Take the Gators to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Florida -13.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Gators lost some defensive studs from last year's team in cornerback CJ Henderson, along with pass rushers Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga. But there's still plenty of talent and experience from a stop unit that held opponents to just 14.4 points per game in 2019, good for eighth-best in the country.
Zachary Carter and Georgia transfer Brenton Cox should provide the pass rush, Ventrell Miller and James Houston are tackling machines at linebacker, while Marco Wilson and Shawn Davis anchor the secondary.
Sure Ole Miss didn't have a great defense last year, but that's by SEC standards. They still held opponents to 26.5 points per game and surrendered more than 28 points only three times in 12 games, with two of those contests coming against Alabama and LSU, which had historically dominant attacks.
It's tough to bite on the Over with a big number like this on opening weekend, especially between a pair of SEC programs.
PREDICTION: Under 60 (-110)
First Quarter Bet
While Ole Miss ranked 50th in the nation in scoring defense against FBS foes last season, they were an impressive 22nd in scoring defense during the first quarter, allowing just 4.4 points per game.
The Gators were even more stingy in the opening frame, holding opponents to just 3.6 ppg. When you combine that with the fact that both teams will be playing their first game of the season on Saturday, you can expect a slower start in this one.
PREDICTION: First Quarter Under 14 (-110)
Florida vs Mississippi betting card
- Florida -13.5 (-110)
- Under 60 (-110)
- First Quarter Under 14 (-110)
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