It’s official. The Chicago Bears plan to get their money’s worth out of quarterback Nick Foles when they host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4.
Foles helped orchestrate an incredible comeback in Week 3, leading the Bears to a 30-26 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, after trailing 26-10 entering the fourth quarter. The NFL betting odds have Chicago as a slight 2.5-point underdog hosting the Colts, who rebounded from a Week 1 upset with two straight wins over Minnesota and the New York Jets.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Colts vs. Bears on October 4.
Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears betting preview
Weather
Game-time temperatures will be in the mid-50s with winds blowing north at 10 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Colts: TJ Carrie CB (Out), Parris Campbell WR (Out), Marlon Mack RB (Out), Michael Pittman Jr. WR (Out).
Bears: Tarik Cohen RB (Out), Sherrick McManis S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Colts are 11-3 ATS in last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Bears.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This spread opened as big as Colts -3 and dropped as low as -2 before settling in around -2.5 upon news that “Big D… armed… Nick” would get the start over Mitchell Trubisky in Week 4.
Honestly, any reaction based on that QB switch seems a little “knee jerky”, since Foles didn’t exactly set the field on fire and the Falcons are known for collapsing like a dollar store lawn chair. In fact, you could say Chicago is lucky to be 3-0 SU with remarkable comebacks needed in Week 1 and Week 3 (and an uninspired win over the New York Giants sandwiched in between).
The Colts aren’t getting much credit here. Yes, they got upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 1 and they’ve run through the likes of the Vikings and Jets in the past two weeks – teams with a combined 0-6 record.
That season opener should be taken a little lightly, since it was essentially a preseason game and Jacksonville may not be as bad as its season win total indicated. As for the past two games, Indianapolis has handled its business, coming away with one-sided wins while comfortably covering the spread. What else do you want?
Philip Rivers is developing chemistry with his new targets and the defense has been a game-changer, ranked fifth in Football Outsiders DVOA and presenting a dangerous foe for Foles after creating six takeaways on the season.
Give us Indy under the field goal.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
The Bears’ rushing game is very fragile with versatile back Tarik Cohen out for the season and David Montgomery playing through some nagging hamstring issues. Chicago has looked to the ground game to take the pressure off the now-benched Trubisky and runs into a Colts defense allowing the fewest yards overall and a mere 93 yards rushing per game.
Yes, those stats have been built against pop-gun offenses, but Indianapolis has allowed only four yards per carry to opposing rushers while keeping QBs to a league-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Foles isn’t a major step up from the likes of Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold – in fact he may be worse than two of those guys – so Chicago isn’t threatening anyone right now.
As for the Colts, third downs continue to be a sore spot. Indianapolis has an NFL-worst 30.3 percent third-down conversion rate and Rivers is completing only 59 percent of his throws on third downs for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt.
The Bears have a legit stop unit and get stingy when they must. Despite ranking in the middle of the road in most yardage categories, Chicago is holding foes to under 31 percent success on third downs and giving up just 20.7 points per outing, with a defensive red-zone TD percentage of less than 42 percent – third lowest in the NFL. Bend but don’t break is the case in the Windy City.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Player prop pick
Former Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham played a big role in Sunday’s comeback win over Atlanta, reeling in six of the 10 balls thrown his way for 60 yards and two touchdowns. It was his best performance in three games for Chicago and his most notable effort since his days in Seattle back in 2017.
While Foles will likely lean on his TEs for check-downs when plays fall apart, don’t bank on Graham recording another Sunday like that versus the Colts. Indianapolis has given up only 32 total yards to tight ends this season – lowest in the league – and allowed a total of 787 yards to the position last year (49 yards per game).
The Colts have a deep and versatile linebacker corps, headlined by Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker and Bobby Okereke. They’ll keep Graham preoccupied with blocking their pass pressure while being able to defend passes when he releases.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Graham Under 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
Colts vs Bears betting card
- Indianapolis -2.5 (-115)
- Under 45 (-110)
- Jimmy Graham Under 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
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