Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Mensah Fending Off Surging Smith

CJ Carr's status as the No. 1 choice in the Heisman Trophy odds lasted just one game, with Darian Mensah (and wide receiver Malachi Toney) making all sorts of noise in Miami's first two blowout wins.

Mensah is already up to 16% and has Miami's offense rolling, with Toney (16 receptions, 330 yards, four touchdowns in two games) headlining Rob Paul's Heisman Hedge Fund.  

Meanwhile, Arch Manning and Jeremiah Smith are on the rise after dueling it out in Austin over the weekend, but are both behind Mensah and Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr in the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Trophy odds

Player	Probability
Darian Mensah	16%
CJ Carr	12%
Jeremiah Smith	11%
Arch Manning	10%
Malachi Toney	8%
Trinidad Chambliss	7%
Kamario Taylor	5%
Gunner Stockton	4%
Josh Hoover	4%
Jayden Maiava	4%
Julian Sayin	3%
Sam Leavitt	3%

Odds as of 9-14. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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Heisman Trophy favorites

Darian Mensah (16%)

It only took one game for us to have a new favorite atop the Heisman board, with Darian Mensah skyrocketing into the first spot after throwing for 401 yards and five touchdowns in Miami's Week 1 win over Stanford. 

His probability has doubled from 8% to 16%, and he maintained that status with 252 yards and three touchdowns in the first half against Florida A&M. 

CJ Carr (12%)

CJ Carr's season got off to a solid, if not spectacular, start in Notre Dame's win over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field: 239 yards and two touchdowns on 19-for-29 passing.

He was much more efficient in a 52-0 win over Rice, going 16-for-20 for 253 yards and four touchdowns. As long as Notre Dame is at or near the top of the National Championship odds, Carr will remain in the conversation.

Jeremiah Smith (11%)

While Jeremiah Smith's Heisman statement was subdued after Ohio State blew its 20-point lead to Texas, his performance didn't go unnoticed.

He caught eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown in Austin a week after going 8/151/2 against Ball State. If he can maintain anything close to that level of production through the season, he'll remain inside the Top 3.

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Heisman Trophy prediction

Demond Williams Jr. to win

Kalshi probability: 2%

Demond Williams Jr. has a lot more going for him than it seems at first glance.

He plays quarterback in the current standard-bearer conference in college football, the Big Ten. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2025 with over 600 rushing yards added in, accounting for 31 total touchdowns. 

Washington is ranked No. 17 to start the season and hosts rival Washington State on NBC in their opener, giving Williams Jr. a platform to throw himself into the Heisman conversation immediately.

The Huskies' schedule is back-loaded with Indiana and Oregon to close out the year. But you're getting a great buy-low opportunity here that could offer a solid cash-out option by November, if nothing else.

Pick made on 8-26.

Heisman Trophy winners by position

Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.

Heisman Trophy trends

Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.

• Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
  
  
• The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
  
  
• Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.

Heisman Trophy history

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