Preseason favorite CJ Carr has come back from the dead to regain the lead in the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds at 30% after Notre Dame's Week 10 victory over Miami.
Hurricanes signal caller Darian Mensah (28%) is now the second choice after flopping in Miami's only game vs. a ranked opponent on their schedule.
Jeremiah Smith (25%) of Ohio State is now in third following a third straight loss for the Buckeyes.
Let's look at the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
Heisman Trophy odds
| Player |  Probability |
|---|---|
 CJ Carr |
30% |
 Darian Mensah |
28% |
 Jeremiah Smith |
25% |
 Drew Mestemaker |
6% |
 Devon Dampier |
6% |
 Gunner Stockton |
5% |
Odds as of 11-8. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Heisman Trophy favorites
CJ Carr (30%)
What a long, strange trip it's been for CJ Carr.
The preseason Heisman favorite was essentially left for dead before September even ended, with Carr and Notre Dame posting workmanlike wins prior to a loss to BYU.
But Carr's body of work suddenly looks a lot more compelling after a win over Miami, with 2,168 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only one interception.
Darian Mensah (28%)
Miami may have lost its one and only game vs. a ranked opponent, but it was by no means a blowout, and the statistical case for Darian Mensah remains strong.
Mensah has thrown for over 2,700 yards with 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
Jeremiah Smith (25%)
Despite hauling in seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State lost to Oregon, marking their first three-game losing streak in the regular season since 2011.
There is now talk that Smith may sit out of the rest of the season and prepare for the 2027 NFL Draft.
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Heisman Trophy prediction
CJ Carr to win
As far as I'm concerned, Mensah blew his chance at the award by losing to Notre Dame. The Irish have no ranked opponents left, and they don't have to play in a conference championship game.
As long as Carr avoids any self-inflicted wounds, this Heisman is his to lose.
Pick made on 11-8.
Heisman Trophy winners by position
| Position | Heisman Trophy Awards |
|---|---|
| Running back | 40 |
| Quarterback | 39 |
| Wide receiver | 4 |
| Tight end | 2 |
| Fullback | 2 |
| Halfback | 2 |
| Cornerback | 2 |
Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.
Heisman Trophy trends
Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.
- Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
- The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
- Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.
Heisman Trophy history
Here's a look at the last 10 Heisman Trophy winners and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
| Year | Winner (Position) | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Fernando Mendoza (QB) |
1.8% |
| 2024 |  Travis Hunter (CB/WR) |
2.8% |
| 2023 |  Jayden Daniels (QB) |
5.6% |
| 2022 |  Caleb Williams (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2021 |  Bryce Young (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2020 | Devonta Smith (WR) |
1% |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow (QB) |
0.5% |
| 2018 |  Kyler Murray (QB) |
4.8% |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2016 |  Lamar Jackson (QB) |
1% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Heisman Trophy Odds FAQs
CJ Carr is favored to win the Heisman Trophy.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025.
Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heisman Trophies.
