Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the clear-cut 48% favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds following another monster performance vs. Iowa in Week 5.
Darian Mensah of Miami and Keelon Russell of Alabama are next in running, but are well behind at 10% each heading into Week 6.
Let's look at the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
Heisman Trophy odds
| Player |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith |
48% |
 Darian Mensah |
10% |
 Keelon Russell |
10% |
 CJ Carr |
9% |
 Trinidad Chambliss |
6% |
 Arch Manning |
3% |
 Gunner Stockton |
3% |
Odds as of 10-5. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Heisman Trophy favorites
Jeremiah Smith (48%)
Jeremiah Smith had been hanging around the Heisman Trophy discussion in the single-digits all season, until uncorking back-to-back 200-yard receiving performances vs. Illinois and Iowa, respectively.
The junior amassed six touchdowns over the last two weeks, helping him take a stranglehold on the Heisman race.
Darian Mensah (10%)
Darian Mensah has been ruthlessly efficient as a passer this season, completing 84.2% of his throws. He's tossed 15 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Miami is a Top 10 team in the nation, but plays only one ranked opponent (Notre Dame) all year. His Heisman campaign hinges on that game on November 7.
Keelon Russell (10%)
An Alabama win over Mississippi State helped Keelon Russell supplant Kamario Taylor for a Top 3 spot in the Heisman probabilities.
Russell threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the 56-23 victory, while rushing for his fourth TD of 2026.
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Heisman Trophy prediction
Julian Sayin to win
It's difficult for a wide receiver, even one of Jeremiah Smith's caliber, to create separation from his quarterback when it comes to the Heisman Trophy discussion.
Sayin was way higher than 3% just a couple of weeks ago. The minute he throws a TD pass to someone not named Smith again, attention will turn back to him, and Smith will fall out of favor.
Buy in at this bargain basement price and cash out at least half of it once Sayin rises to 8%.
Pick made on 9-29.
Heisman Trophy winners by position
| Position | Heisman Trophy Awards |
|---|---|
| Running back | 40 |
| Quarterback | 39 |
| Wide receiver | 4 |
| Tight end | 2 |
| Fullback | 2 |
| Halfback | 2 |
| Cornerback | 2 |
Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.
Heisman Trophy trends
Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.
- Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
- The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
- Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.
Heisman Trophy history
Here's a look at the last 10 Heisman Trophy winners and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
| Year | Winner (Position) | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Fernando Mendoza (QB) |
1.8% |
| 2024 |  Travis Hunter (CB/WR) |
2.8% |
| 2023 |  Jayden Daniels (QB) |
5.6% |
| 2022 |  Caleb Williams (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2021 | Bryce Young (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2020 | Devonta Smith (WR) |
1% |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow (QB) |
0.5% |
| 2018 |  Kyler Murray (QB) |
4.8% |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2016 |  Lamar Jackson (QB) |
1% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Heisman Trophy Odds FAQs
Jeremiah Smith is favored to win the Heisman Trophy.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025.
Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heisman Trophies.
