Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Carr is Favored Over Manning Ahead of Season Openers

CJ Carr is favored in the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds with Week 0 on deck. His Notre Dame Fighting Irish will open their season on Sept. 6 vs. Wisconsin.

Close behind him is Arch Manning, last year's preseason favorite to win the Heisman, with Texas' opener taking place on Sept. 5 vs. Texas State.

Below are the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Trophy odds

Player Name	Probability
CJ Carr	12%
Arch Manning	10%
Darian Mensah	8%
Trinidad Chambliss	8%
Julian Sayin	7%
Jeremiah Smith	7%
Dante Moore	6%
Josh Hoover	5%
Keelon Russell	5%
John Mateer	4%

Odds as of 8-26. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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Heisman Trophy favorites

CJ Carr (12%)

CJ Carr had a golden arm for the "Golden Domers" last year, throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns.

The Notre Dame man completed 66.6% of his passes, and will front a team that's toward the top of the college football win totals in 2026.

Arch Manning (10%)

Arch Manning, who was favored in the 2025 preseason Heisman odds, is a close second choice despite a disappointing 2025 campaign for Texas.

The Longhorns did go 7-1 down the stretch last year, however, with Manning throwing for 15 scores and rushing for another five.

Darian Mensah (8%)

Miami QB Darian Mensah is a Duke transfer that threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season with 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions. 

The ACC is considered the weakest of the "Power 4" conferences this year, with only three schools in the preseason Top 25. Miami is the only one in the Top 15.

This affords Mensah the chance to pile up some solid stats vs. some brand-name opposition.

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Heisman Trophy prediction

Demond Williams Jr. to win

Kalshi probability: 2%

Demond Williams Jr. has a lot more going for him than it seems at first glance.

He plays quarterback in the current standard-bearer conference in college football, the Big Ten. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2025 with over 600 rushing yards added in, accounting for 31 total touchdowns. 

Washington is ranked No. 17 to start the season and hosts rival Washington State on NBC in their opener, giving Williams Jr. a platform to throw himself into the Heisman conversation immediately.

The Huskies' schedule is back-loaded with Indiana and Oregon to close out the year. But you're getting a great buy-low opportunity here that could offer a solid cash-out option by November, if nothing else.

Pick made on 8-26.

Heisman Trophy winners by position

Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.

Heisman Trophy trends

Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.

• Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
  
  
• The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
  
  
• Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.

Heisman Trophy history

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