For the first time since September, the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds go through someone other than Jeremiah Smith of the Ohio State Buckeyes.
USC knocked Ohio State off their perch in Week 9, opening the door for Darian Mensah (36%) of the Miami Hurricanes. His top target, Malachi Toney (21%), remains in the Top 3 ahead of Miami's biggest game of the year at Notre Dame.
Let's look at the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
Heisman Trophy odds
| Player |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Darian Mensah |
36% |
 Jeremiah Smith |
23% |
| Malachi Toney |
16% |
 CJ Carr |
8% |
 Trinidad Chambliss |
6% |
 Devon Dampier |
2% |
Odds as of 11-2. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Heisman Trophy favorites
Darian Mensah (36%)
Miami narrowly escaped with a 38-35 win over UNC in Week 9, but the public liked what they saw from Darian Mensah, who went 22-for-29 with three touchdowns. He's thrown for 25 scores while getting picked off only once in 2026.
The Hurricanes are now the No. 1 team in the nation despite not playing a ranked opponent yet. Their one and only ranked foe all season, Notre Dame, is on deck, setting up a make-or-break tilt for Mensah.
Jeremiah Smith (23%)
Life without Julian Sayin has been rough for Ohio State so far. The Buckeyes lost their second game of the season, at USC, despite Jeremiah Smith hauling in 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Smith was a 58% possibility to win this award just three weeks ago.
Malachi Toney (16%)
Malachi Toney was much more muted vs. UNC (seven catches, 75 yards, two TDs) after going for 194 yards and three TDs vs. Pitt in Week 8, hence the drop from 21% in the Heisman odds.
Toney will be trying to avoid Smith's fate vs. the Fighting Irish this weekend.
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Heisman Trophy prediction
Charlie Becker to win
Here's why Rob Paul is adding Charlie Becker to his Heisman portfolio for Week 9:
"It's the Year of the Wide Receiver in college football, and if there's any player with a less than 2% probability who could move up the Heisman board (to then flip the contract for a profit), it's Charlie Becker.
He's Indiana's best player, and even with the Hoosiers taking a step back this season after winning the national title, Becker has managed to take his game up a notch.
His best game of the season came against an Ohio State defense ranked No. 1 by SP+, and he's been on a tear since the middle of last season when injuries opened the door for him to have a bigger role.
Since Nov. 8 of last season, Becker has 69 receptions for 1,248 receiving yards and 11 TDs with zero drops over his last 15 games (five of those games came against teams ranked in the top 10).
If Indiana wins out and Becker keeps up his pace, the projected top 10 pick will see his Heisman probability rise."
Pick made on 10-29.
Heisman Trophy winners by position
| Position | Heisman Trophy Awards |
|---|---|
| Running back | 40 |
| Quarterback | 39 |
| Wide receiver | 4 |
| Tight end | 2 |
| Fullback | 2 |
| Halfback | 2 |
| Cornerback | 2 |
Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.
Heisman Trophy trends
Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.
- Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
- The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
- Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.
Heisman Trophy history
Here's a look at the last 10 Heisman Trophy winners and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
| Year | Winner (Position) | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Fernando Mendoza (QB) |
1.8% |
| 2024 |  Travis Hunter (CB/WR) |
2.8% |
| 2023 |  Jayden Daniels (QB) |
5.6% |
| 2022 |  Caleb Williams (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2021 |  Bryce Young (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2020 | Devonta Smith (WR) |
1% |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow (QB) |
0.5% |
| 2018 |  Kyler Murray (QB) |
4.8% |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield (QB) |
12.5% |
| 2016 |  Lamar Jackson (QB) |
1% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Heisman Trophy Odds FAQs
Darian Mensah is favored to win the Heisman Trophy.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025.
Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heisman Trophies.
