Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Smith's Lead Shrinks As Toney Closes In

The 2026 Heisman Trophy odds still go through Jeremiah Smith (38%) of the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah (22%) is closing in, as his his top wide-out, Malachi Toney (19%).

Let's look at the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Trophy odds

Player	Probability
Jeremiah Smith	38%
Darian Mensah	22%
Malachi Toney	19%
Trinidad Chambliss	4%
Jesse Legree	3%

Odds as of 10-26. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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Heisman Trophy favorites

Jeremiah Smith (38%)

Jeremiah Smith is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving already after Ohio State beat Indiana. However, he went for a season-low 68 yards, and saw his three-game multi-touchdown streak go by the boards.

To make matters worse, Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin is out indefintely following an arm injury. Smith fell from 43% to 38% during his bye week.

Darian Mensah (22%)

Darian Mensah went from 11% to 22% at Kalshi after piling up 326 yards and three TDs in Miami's victory over Florida State in Week 7. He stayed there after a 387-yard, four-TD day vs. Pitt in Week 8.

Miami is a Top 10 team in the nation, but plays only one ranked opponent (Notre Dame) all year. His Heisman campaign hinges on that game on November 7.

Malachi Toney (19%)

Malachi Toney shot up from 6% to 19% after tallying 194 yards and three TDs vs. Pitt in Week 8. It was his fifth 100-yard receiving game this season, and his third with multiple scores.

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Heisman Trophy prediction

Conner Weigman to win

Kalshi probability: 1%

Here's why Rob Paul is adding Conner Weigman to his Heisman portfolio for Week 8:

"It might sound insane to say Weigman should be in the Heisman conversation at midseason, but he has the numbers, and if Houston upsets Utah this Saturday, he's going to see his probability jump. Do I think Weigman will win the Heisman? Of course not, but if he beats Utah (Houston has never lost to the Utes), he's an easy sell candidate for a profit down the line. And while it all hinges on a win Saturday, Weigman should be priced higher than he is right now due to his sheer productivity."

Pick made on 10-22.

Heisman Trophy winners by position

Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.

Heisman Trophy trends

Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.

• Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
  
  
• The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
  
  
• Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.

Heisman Trophy history

Here's a look at the last 10 Heisman Trophy winners and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.

Year	Winner (Position)	Preseason Odds
2025	Fernando Mendoza (QB)	1.8%
2024	Travis Hunter (CB/WR)	2.8%
2023	Jayden Daniels (QB)	5.6%
2022	Caleb Williams (QB)	12.5%
2021	Bryce Young (QB)	12.5%
2020	Devonta Smith (WR)	1%
2019	Joe Burrow (QB)	0.5%
2018	Kyler Murray (QB)	4.8%
2017	Baker Mayfield (QB)	12.5%
2016	Lamar Jackson (QB)	1%

Heisman Trophy Odds FAQs

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