The Big 12 begins its college football betting season this weekend with non-conference matchups, which includes the Texas Longhorns hosting the UTEP Miners.
Tom Herman is known for his record as an underdog, but the Longhorns are one of the betting favorites to win the Big 12 title in 2020, so it feels like it’s put up or shut up time for Herman, Sam Ehlinger and Co.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best college football picks and predictions UTEP vs. Texas on Saturday, September 12 with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET.
UTEP Miners vs Texas Longhorns betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for football in Texas. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-to-low 80s for kickoff and minimal wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Injuries
UTEP: Quadraiz Wadley RB (Out).
Texas: Jake Smith WR (Out), B.J. Foster DB (Questionable), Isaiah Hookfin OL (Questionable), Daniel Young RB (Out), Dajon Harrison WR (Out), Willie Tyler OL (Out), Troy Omeire RB (Out), Marquez Bimage DL (Out), Derrian Brown RB (Out), Kennedy Lewis (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
While Herman has a solid record in his coaching career as an underdog, it’s a different story when Texas has been getting big points. The Longhorns are 3-4 ATS when they have been -18 or greater on the spread since Herman has been the head coach. However, the Over is 5-2 in those games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UTEP vs. Texas.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
With Texas is coming off an 8-5 season (7-6 ATS) which had to be labeled a disappointment, Herman comes into this season with several changes to his coaching staff, but most importantly, he gets the return of Ehlinger to look forward to.
The Longhorns’ offense was explosive last year with Ehlinger at the helm, ranking 15th in scoring with 35.2 per game against FBS opponents and 13th in total offense at 466.5 yards per game. And there is reason to believe that explosiveness can carry over to 2020.
For one, Ehlinger has improved his completion percentage every year he has been at Texas, and while he loses a big target in Devin Duvernay, the word is out of camp is that Michigan transfer Tarik Black has looked outstanding. Ehlinger also has an awesome stable of great running backs at his disposal led, by Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson, but look out for 5-star recruit Bijan Robinson.
Now, this is a massive spread, and deservedly so: the Miners were one of the worst teams in the country last season. They didn’t get a conference win in the C-USA and have struggled to find consistent quarterback play.
But it is hard to determine how Herman will approach this game. Obviously, the Longhorns haven’t been great at covering large spreads during his tenure. In four non-conference games when Texas was -19 or greater, it has only outscored opponents 45-41 in the fourth quarter. I won’t be shocked if the Longhorns cover, but 43 is a lot of points.
PREDICTION: UTEP +43 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Now, the total trend for Texas is far more interesting. The Over is 5-2 when they are favored by 18 or more during the Herman era. The offense obviously will be getting all the headlines in Austin, but it’s the defense that will have to take the next step if Texas really wants to be a College Football Playoff contender.
Chris Ash comes in to run the defense. While Ash may be known for having um, little success at Rutgers, he is well-regarded when it comes to coaching defenses at Wisconsin and Ohio State. Texas always has talented players on the defensive side of the ball, but they just haven’t been able to put a good product on the field.
The Longhorns gave up over 430 yards per game and almost six yards per play last season, numbers that ranked 89th and 91st in the country. With a new system in place for Texas and UTEP already having a game under its belt, the Miners might be able to do just enough on offense (a score or two?) to send this one above the number.
PREDICTION: Over 58.5 (-110)
First-half Spread
As we’ve talked about a lot, 43 points is a lot to cover, particularly when you consider that most of these teams have had nowhere near a full offseason program. That said, Ehlinger is the best quarterback in the Big 12 this season and has three seasons under his belt. If anyone can be prepared to lead an offense in this situation...it’s him.
And Texas has a history of getting off to good starts when they are heavily favored against non-power five opponents: in four games such games when laying 18 points or more, Texas has outscored its opponents 97-0 in the first half. So, maybe the best bet in this game is to take the Longhorns to get out to a big lead early, leaning on Ehlinger and those great backs, before letting off the gas late.
PREDICTION: Texas -27.5 (-105)
UTEP vs Texas betting card
- UTEP +43 (-110)
- Over 58.5 (-110)
- Texas -27.5 First Half (-105)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA UTEP vs. Texas picks, you could win $61.16 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on college football?
You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.
