Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up with the FitzMagic Show in the Sunshine State. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for “Monday Night Football,” with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1.5; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5
Tampa Bay’s hot start behind backup quarterback – but maybe not for long – Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the biggest stories of the young season. Fitzpatrick, subbing for the suspended Jameis Winston, led a stunning road upset of New Orleans in Week 1, then helped the Buccaneers (2-0 SU and ATS) oust defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 27-21 as a 3-point home favorite last week.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is in a bit of disrepair and despair, still without holdout running back Le’Veon Bell and still seeking its first win of the season, after going 13-3 last year. The Steelers (0-1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) fell victim to Kansas City in Week 2, losing 42-37 as a 4.5-point home chalk.
CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, have seen a 4.5-point fence-jumping swing on this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
“On pointspread action, 78 percent of all dollars are on Tampa Bay. We took a mid-five-figure bet on Bucs -1.5,” Bernanke said of the number CG has been dealing the past few hours, while noting the total has gone from 52.5 to 55. “Eighty-one percent of all dollars on the total are on the Over. The ideal result as of now would be a low-scoring Steelers win that covers all numbers.”
William Hill US has seen similar line movement, but isn’t looking at much liability to either side tonight.
“We’re dead even to the game, and all the money is for the Over – a ton of money,” Bogdanovich said, pointing to WillHill’s opening total of 52.5 reaching 55, just as it has at CG. “We’re just rooting for the Under.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.