The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Calgary Stampeders face off in Week 19 of CFL action on Friday night.
The Ti-Cats are coming off a crucial victory against the Roughriders but need to keep winning if they want to make the playoffs, while the Stamps are fighting for home-field advantage in the first round. CFL betting lines opened with Calgary as a 7.5-point home favorite before growing to -8.5.
Here are my best free Tiger-Cats vs. Stampeders CFL betting picks and predictions for October 14.
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders picks and predictions
The Ti-Cats might have erupted for 424 yards and 48 points against the Blue Bombers and their top-rated defense a month ago, but that was a clear outlier in what has been an ugly season for their offense.
They have failed to score more than 18 points in three of their last four games and rank last in the CFL in both fumbles lost (14) and interceptions (19). Quarterback Dane Evans had been a turnover machine for much of the year, and although he kept things clean in Weeks 15 and 16, he reverted to his sloppy ways last Friday by throwing a pair of picks.
That's bad news against a Stampeders' defense that leads the league in turnovers forced (40). Calgary also leads the league in sacks and should be able to pressure Evans with Hamilton's offensive line giving him subpar protection.
With the Stamps coming off a pair of dominant defensive showings where they limited the Argos to two points and the Lions to 11, I'm fading the Tabbies on their team total.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats team total Under 21 (-108 at BetRegal)
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders spread analysis
The Stampeders are coming off a bye week after stomping the Argos 29-2 at McMahon Stadium in Week 17. Their defense held the Boatmen to just 296 yards in that contest and had three interceptions, while their offense piled up 161 yards on the ground.
They used a similar recipe in their Week 16 win against BC, limiting the Lions to 295 yards and 11 points while controlling the clock with 144 rushing yards.
Calgary has won four of its last five games and is tied with BC for second in the West with a 10-5 record — although the Leos hold the tiebreaker.
The Tiger-Cats are 5-10 but still have a decent chance at making the playoffs with the Roughriders (aiming for a crossover berth) having just a half-game lead on them in the standings. Hamilton edged the Riders 18-14 last week but has gone just 2-4 straight up and against the spread in its last six games.
Although the Tabbies rank a respectable fourth in the league in both yards per play and opponent yards per play, they've struggled to win thanks to turnover issues and a worrying tendency to collapse down the stretch. That's what happened when these teams met up in Week 2 in Hamilton when the Stamps stormed back from a 24-3 halftime deficit to beat the Ti-Cats in overtime.
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders Over/Under analysis
The Stampeders have a very balanced attack and lead the league with 30.8 points per game, while the Ti-Cats are second-last with 27.4 ppg allowed. That said, there are plenty of reasons to think we might see a lower-scoring battle on Saturday.
Both of these teams are coming off impressive defensive showings and their stop units match up very well against the strengths of each attack.
In recent weeks, Calgary has become increasingly reliant on its ground game which leads the league with 115.4 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry. However, the Ti-Cats allow the fewest rushing yards per game and yards per carry (4.6) and could get back All-Star linebacker Simoni Lawrence.
Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats lean on Evans and their aerial attack but will face a Stampeders defense that's second in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8) and opponent pass efficiency rating (87.9).
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Stampeders.
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders game info
|Location:||McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB|
|Date:||Friday, October 14, 2022|
|Kickoff:||9:30 p.m. ET|
Tiger-Cats vs Stampeders key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Simoni Lawrence LB (Questionable), Micah Johnson DT (Questionable), Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out), Chris Van Zeyl OT (Out).
Stampeders: Derek Dennis LT (Out), Malik Henry WR (Questionable), Kamar Jordan WR (Out), Tre Roberson CB (Out), Titus Wall S (Questionable), Natrell Jamerson DB (Out), Darius Williams DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.