Week 16 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash at BMO Field between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Toronto Argonauts. The Argos will look to complete the series sweep after cruising to easy victories in the first three meetings between these rivals this season.
Oddsmakers expect them to do just that with CFL odds opening with the Argos as 10-point home favorites. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts on September 23.
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The Toronto Argonauts have owned this rivalry lately, winning five consecutive contests against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats by double-digits. However, this spot is heavily favorable towards a Ticats side that should be far more motivated in this one.
The Argos have been nothing short of dominant this season, but that has led to them wrapping up first place in the East with six weeks left to play. They'll be resting key starters on a rotating basis over the next month and a half and this week, and that includes the league's third-leading rusher A.J. Ouellette.
Backup running back Andrew Harris was already sidelined by a knee injury and the fact that the Argos are willing to go with an unproven third-string RB shows just how little they care about running up the score in this contest.
Other key starters who are banged up and won't be rushed onto the field anytime soon include left tackle Isiah Cage, receivers Kurleigh Gittens and Cam Phillips, and defensive backs Jamal Peters, DaShaun Amos, and Robertson Daniel.
While the Boatmen could take their foot off the pedal down the stretch, the Ticats are in the thick of the playoff race and playing their best football of the year. They've won three of their last four games, which includes a pair of impressive victories against the BC Lions and Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
When starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and backup Matthew Shiltz went down with injuries in Week 6, it looked like Hamilton's ugly season would get even worse. Third-string rookie Taylor Powell took over at QB and wasn't initially trusted to make plays downfield.
However, Powell has shown improvement every week and has completed 72.4% of his passes for 1,080 yards with eight touchdowns and two picks over the last four games. A big reason for that has been the tremendous job that Scott Milanovich has done since taking over as offensive coordinator last month. Milanovich is one of the best offensive minds in the Canadian game, and he's adjusted his system to Powell's strengths while also leaning more on the ground game and James Butler.
Back the Ticats to stay competitive against an Argos side that could end up playing in some close games towards the end of the regular season.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats +9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts same-game parlay
Tiger-Cats +9.5 (-115)
Chad Kelly Over 262.5 passing yards (-114)
James Butler Over 53.5 rushing yards (-114)
While some of Toronto's players might not play as hard during the final six weeks of the year, don't expect Chad Kelly's intensity to dip. This is a guy that really wants another shot at the NFL and adding the the Most Outstanding Player Award to his resume would be the cherry on top. Since coming off the IL in Week 10, Kelly has thrown for at least 275 yards in four of five contests.
Under Milanovich, the Ticats have finally been utilizing Butler way more often in the ground game. It also helps that Hamilton hasn't been getting blown out as often and therefore hasn't had to abandon the run game lately. Butler has rushed for more than 80 yards in three of five games with Milanovic at OC, and he's averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game over that span.
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Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has ticked down from Argonauts -10 to -9.5 while the total has moved up half a point to 49.5.
The Argos have been the most dominant team in the league this season, going 11-1 straight up and 9-3 against the spread while cashing the Over on their team total in 10 of 12 games. Toronto won the Grey Cup last year and boasts an even better squad thanks to an offense that averages a whopping 34.2 points per game.
The Ticats began this season with a 3-6 record, both SU and ATS. They've since gone 3-1 SU and ATS, but their defense remains a sore spot and ranks second-last in the league with 7.01 yards allowed per play.
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts trend to know
Hamilton is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts.
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, September 23, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Chris Edwards SLB (Questionable), Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB (Out), Duke Williams WR (Out), Kyle Wilson LB (Out).
Argonauts: A.J. Ouellette RB (Out), Andrew Harris RB (Out), Jamal Peters DB (Questionable), Isiah Cage LT (Out), Jared Brinkman DL (Out), Cam Phillips WR (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), DaShaun Amos DB (Out), Robertson Daniel DB (Out), Kurleigh Gittens WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
