Week 14 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a rematch between the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Elks. These teams faced off last week at McMahon Stadium with the Stampeders winning 26-18 but failing to cover the spread.
The Stamps have now won all three meetings this season and oddsmakers expect them to sweep the series with CFL betting lines opening with Calgary as a 7.5-point road favorite before growing to -9.5.
Here are our best free Stampeders vs. Elks picks and predictions for September 10.
Stampeders vs Elks best odds
Stampeders vs Elks picks and predictions
The Stamps failed to cover the 11.5-point spread at home last week but there's reason to think they'll be able to cover the slightly smaller spread on Saturday.
The Elks needed a desperate third-down touchdown pass from Taylor Cornelius in the fourth quarter to make the final scoreline respectable, and the Edmonton QB had arguably his best performance of the year in that contest.
Meanwhile, Calgary had a pedestrian 305 yards of offense, significantly lower than its average net offense of 351.1 yards per game and also much lower than Edmonton's 356 yards per game allowed.
I'm expecting regression from Cornelius in this one while also expecting positive regression from Calgary's usually explosive attack, against what has been a historically bad Elks stop-unit.
This line has slimmed from last week's number for two reasons: the closer-than-expected contest on Labour Day and the swap in home fields. However, the Elks haven't benefitted from the spacious design at Commonwealth Stadium, as they've failed to win a home game since 2019 and are 0-5 ATS this season — including a 43-point loss to the Stamps in July.
Obviously, this line was much more palatable when it hit the board at -7.5, so I hope you were tuning into the "Chez and Ro" show on Tuesday when we mentioned betting it. However, I'd still play this number all the way up to -10.
My best bet: Stampeders -9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Stampeders at Elks betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Stampeders are 7-4 with three of those defeats coming in close losses to the Grey Cup favorite Blue Bombers, and the other coming by a single point to the BC Lions when they looked like a contender with Nathan Rourke at the helm.
The Stamps have typically taken care of business when matched up against inferior opponents which includes three wins against the Elks — most recently a 26-18 victory on Monday.
Jake Maier has taken over for former two-time MOP winner Bo Levi Mitchell at quarterback but it looks like the right call so far with Mitchell's play on the decline.
Maier leads an offense that is second in the league in scoring (29.4 ppg), net offense (351.1 ypg), and yards per play (6.84). The Stamps also have an underrated defense that's second in the league in yards per play allowed and turnovers forced, while ranking third in sacks.
The Elks have been a bit more competitive in recent weeks but this is still a team with a league-worst 3-9 record and an average scoring margin of minus-12.8 ppg (by comparison the Redblacks have the second-worst scoring margin at minus-6.6 ppg).
They're also riddled with injuries, especially at the skill positions where their top running back (James Wilder Jr.) and two best receivers (Kenny Lawler and Emmanuel Arceneaux) are sidelined. The loss of Lawler really hurts since he's arguably the best wideout in the league and was single-handedly keeping them in games they had no business being in.
This has been a rebuilding year for the Elks in head coach Chris Jones' return to the franchise and he's been quick to swap players in and out of the lineup as he looks to find guys that fit his vision. This is a team that is clearly focused on the future, not the present.
Over/Under analysis
The total is a tough number to handicap with Edmonton ranking last in the league in both scoring (19.5 ppg) and scoring defense (32.3 ppg). That said, I have more faith in the Stamps' offense than their defense.
Sure, Calgary's defense has played well, but it has fewer game-breakers than its offense which rushes for a league-high 5.7 yards per carry, spreads the ball to multiple receivers, and has one of the best offensive lines in the game.
The Elks' secondary allows a league-worst 9.4 yards per pass attempt while also ranking last in passes knocked down, and is second-last in yards allowed per rush (5.1).
The Over has also gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between these rivals, including four straight contests in Edmonton.
Stampeders vs Elks game info
• Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Stampeders vs Elks key injuries
Stampeders: Kamar Jorden WR (Questionable), Natrell Jamerson DB (Out), Sean McEwen C (Out), Tre Roberson CB (Out), Titus Wall S (Out), Darius Williams DB (Out), Javien Elliot DB (Out).
Elks: Nyles Morgan LB (Out), Tre Ford QB (Out), Kenny Lawler WR (Out), Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), James Wilder Jr. RB (Out), Tony Washington OT (Out), Tre Watson LB (Out), Makana Henry DT (Out), Christian Rector DT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Stampeders vs Elks weather
Stampeders vs Elks betting trend to know
The Stampeders are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while the Elks are 5-16 ATS in their previous 21 games at home. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Elks.
