Week 17 in the CFL is headlined by a rematch of last year's Grey Cup showdown between the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Argos edged the Bombers to win their 18th title in that previous clash and have rolled to the league's best record in 2023 while the Bombers are once again a contender with a 10-4 mark.
CFL odds opened with the Bombers as 3-point home favorites for this marquee matchup but after reports came out that the Argos would rest star quarterback Chad Kelly that number jumped to -7. Here are my best free Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers CFL picks for Friday, September 29.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers best odds
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
The Toronto Argonauts have been dominant this year, going 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +12.4 points per game. What's most impressive about that record is that their only loss came in a contest where they lost star quarterback Chad Kelly in the second quarter. Backup QB Cameron Dukes looked terrible in relief completing just 8-of-15 passes for 63 yards and a pick and he's expected to start on Friday.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have had a week off to stew on an upset loss to the Ticats in Week 15. The Bombers are tied for the best record in the West Division but despite their +11.1 ppg scoring margin, they've covered the spread just three times in their last nine games.
While the Bombers seem to be having a tough time with inconsistency and maintaining focus week-to-week (especially on the defensive side of the ball), their biggest issue seems to be performing on the road. With the exception of an outlier loss to the Lions at IG Field in Week 3, the Bombers have been perfect in Winnipeg going 6-1 SU and ATS. They are allowing just 12.4 ppg in their last five games at home but that number has soared to 27.8 ppg in their previous five contests on the road.
With this matchup taking place at IG, Winnipeg should be at its best version of itself on defense. Another reason I like the Bombers in this spot is that they still have something to play for since they have the same record as the Lions and have split the head-to-head series this season. Meanwhile, the Argos clinched first place in the East two weeks ago which led to them resting a slew of starters last weekend.
It appears that head coach Ryan Dinwiddie will look to rest starters on a rotating basis for the rest of the regular season and this week that includes Kelly who has anchored the league's top offense. There's a big dropoff from Kelly to Dukes and Winnipeg's group of veteran defenders will be sure to take advantage of that inexperience under center.
On the other side of the ball, the Argos are missing three starters in their secondary (Jamal Peters, DaShaun Amos, and Robertson Daniel) and face a highly talented group of Winnipeg receivers. You can still get this line at under the key number of 7 at some books so hammer that number but even at 7, this is a bet worth putting a couple of units on.
My best bet: Blue Bombers -6.5 (-120 at FanDuel).
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board on Tuesday with the Bombers installed as 3-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 50.5. However, when reports came out that Dukes was taking first-team reps in practice and would start on Friday this line surged to Bombers -7 while the total ticked down to 49.
The Argos explosive offense has been a money machine for bettors this season. With the exception of Week 9 against the Stampeders when Kelly exited with an ankle injury, the Argos have gone 10-2 ATS and 11-1 to the Over on their team total. That said, with Kelly out of action in that contest the Boatmen finished with just seven points (scored when he was still on the field) in a 20-7 loss.
The Bombers have also been incredible on offense with reigning two-time MOP Zach Collaros having the best pass efficiency rating (115) in the CFL while running back Brady Oliveira leads the league in rushing yards (1,190).
These teams have also been excellent on defense with the Bombers limiting opponents to a league-low 20.9 ppg and the Argos just behind them with 21.4 ppg allowed. The Argos will need that defense firing on all cylinders if they want to pull off the upset here.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers trend to know
The Bombers have gone 35-16-1 against the spread in their last 52 games at home. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | IG Field, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Friday, September 29, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Argonauts: Chad Kelly QB (Doubtful), Isiah Cage OT (Questionable), DaShaun Amos DB (Out), Robertson Daniel DB (Out), Jamal Peters DB (Out), Wynton McManis LB (Out), Andrew Harris RB (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), Kurleigh Gittens WR (Out), Cam Phillips WR (Out).
Blue Bombers: Dalton Schoen WR (Questionable), Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Alden Darby Jr. SLB (Out), Janarion Grant WR/KR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
