Our first featured boxing attraction for 2026 is a high-stakes junior welterweight showdown between Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson, two of the sport’s most talented and polarizing stars.
The winner of this fight will stake their claim as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
Stevenson enters as a -330 favorite in the boxing odds, while Lopez comes back at +250. Here are my best Lopez vs. Stevenson predictions and free betting picks from New York.
Lopez vs Stevenson prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Stevenson moneyline (-330 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Stevenson by decision (-210 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
However, Lopez is closer to a counter-puncher stylistically than a true pressure fighter, and that distinction matters here.
He has struggled against opponents who refuse to engage and don’t give him clean looks to react to. Jamaine Ortiz and Sandor Martin both exposed Lopez’s inability to cut off the ring or generate sustained offense on his own, yet he’s now expected to walk down and pressure perhaps the best defensive tactician in boxing today.
Shakur Stevenson’s dominance was on full display in his last fight against William Zepeda, where he beat a volume puncher at his own game using superior hand speed, timing, and ring IQ.
Unlike Lopez, Stevenson’s focus is never in question. He’s shown the confidence and adaptability to win fights however they present themselves. There are few fighters in the sport as complete as Stevenson.
The risk he takes here comes from conceding size to Lopez, as he can’t afford to get dragged into extended slugging exchanges at junior welterweight.
He’s the slicker boxer, and Lopez has historically struggled against fighters who stay defensively sound and don’t give him clean targets. When Lopez realizes he can’t pin Stevenson down, frustration tends to set in, and his adjustments often fall apart. That’s when openings appear, and Stevenson is ruthless about exploiting them.
Stylistically, Stevenson is all wrong for Lopez. He should control the pace, neutralize the offense, and systematically pull away as the fight progresses. Stevenson is the pick.
Best best analysis
Stevenson isn’t knocking Lopez out at junior welterweight, and Lopez hasn’t shown any flashes of the power he possessed at lightweight despite some dominant performances.
There isn’t much that Lopez can do to stop Stevenson’s movement, and Stevenson’s disciplined approach, along with his tight defense, will shut Lopez down. Stevenson winning by decision is my best bet.
Teofimo Lopez vs Shakur Stevenson odds
| Method of victory | Teofimo Lopez | Shakur Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +230 | -300 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +800 | +750 |
| Win by points or decision | +380 | -200 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of January 31.
Teofimo Lopez vs Shakur Stevenson tale of the tape
| Lopez | Stevenson | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| Junior Welterweight | Weight Class | Junior Welterweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 22-1 | Record | 24-0 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 11 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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