Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas is the main event for this Saturday’s huge PPV event at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
This bout features two of the best welterweights in the world unifying three of the four major spoilers, with Spence returning from another injury layoff to face the craftiest opponent of his career in the upset-minded Ugas.
Despite Ugas’ recent run, Spence is a prohibitive favorite at -550 to add the WBA title to his waist, while fellow champion Ugas comes in as +400.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Spence vs. Ugas on April 16.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
Odds for Errol Spence vs Yordenis Ugas
| Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Spence | -550 | Yordenis Ugas | +400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on April 13, 2022.
Spence vs Ugas betting predictions
Spence vs Ugas tale of the tape
| Errol Spence Jr. | Yordanis Ugas | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 72 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 27-0 (21 KO) | Record | 27-4 (12 KO) |
Spence vs Ugas betting preview
Ugas became the talk of the boxing world last October when he scored a dominant decision victory over aging legend Manny Pacquiao, who could not overcome the slick Cuban’s accuracy and movement.
Ironically, Ugas’ biggest victory came at Spence’s expense. Spence was originally penciled in for Pacquiao and surely would have won, but a detached retina forced Spence out and Ugas in.
The WBA champion is an accomplished amateur and a top-tier pro, with wins over the likes of Omar Figueroa, Jamal James, and Thomas Dulorme. The crafty Cuban had to claw his way into the spotlight after some early career setbacks, but his disciplined style and excellent counter-punching technique has elevated him as a legitimate top-tier welterweight.
Despite the long odds against him, Ugas cannot be counted out. He will have his work cut out for him against the consensus No. 1 fighter in the division. Spence was last seen in the ring putting a lopsided beating on Danny Garcia in December 2020, comprehensively beating him in his first fight after a terrifying car crash.
The 27-0 Spence has looked unbeatable against elite opposition. Besides Garcia, Spence outlasted Shawn Porter, handed Mikey Garcia his first defeat, and scored highlight-reel stoppages of Lamont Peterson and Kell Brook.
A southpaw with heavy hands who can fight and box, Spence is on the verge of greatness and continually tests himself against the best the division has to offer.
Spence vs Ugas picks
Though Ugas is a worthy challenger and a complex puzzle for most to solve, Spence is just as intelligent and has a distinct advantage in punching power and experience. Spence transitions seamlessly from a stalking power puncher to precise counter-punching, targets the body often, and carries his power from the beginning of the fight to the end.
We’ve seen him blast out fighters early, or weaken their resolve and hurt them late. “The Truth” broke Brook’s face by weakening him with a prolonged body assault before landing the kill shot. He also outlasted Porter long enough to hurt him and drop the iron-chinned battler in a grueling bout.
Ugas has to force Spence to commit to a conventional boxing match, and even then he’ll struggle to deal with Spence’s punch selection and offensive superiority. As good as Ugas is, his conservative pace gives Spence a chance at outworking him without fear of taking a big shot. If Porter and Danny Garcia couldn’t hurt him, Ugas certainly won’t.
Spence hasn’t been knocked down at all during his career, so it’s safe to say that Ugas’ best shots will roll right off Spence’s chin. From what we’ve seen of both men, Spence has the tools to deliver another big win.
The tactical Ugas doesn’t fight with a sense of urgency, so a Spence victory might be clear by the midpoint of the fight.
Pick: Spence to win (-550 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Spence will win, but the chances of him knocking Ugas out are slim. Ugas is a tremendous defender who can slip and counter, and Spence is likely to engage Ugas at his pace to avoid the same looping right hands that doomed Pacquiao. Both Spence and Ugas tend to scale back their offense as the fight drags onto the later rounds.
Of Spence’s 21 knockouts, only three of them have come after the sixth round. Even if Spence does seem to take his foot off the gas, he could win rounds by work rate alone, as Ugas tends to take his time to set up his shots.
If we get to round 7, then we’re likely going to the cards. In instances where Spence had a vulnerable opponent in front of him late in the fight, he is content to make it to the final bell and not risk the sure thing on the cards.
The best bet on Spence also happens to be the most likely outcome, and because of that, we are backing Spence to win by decision.
Pick: Spence by Decision or Technical Decision (-150 at DraftKings)
