The third and presumably final chapter of the best women’s boxing rivalry in the sport’s history is upon us as Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano collide for the undisputed junior welterweight title.
Taylor won the previous two bouts by close decisions, many considered controversial, and Serrano is determined to overcome her greatest rival in New York.
Here are my Taylor vs. Serrano predictions and free picks from MSG.
Taylor vs Serrano prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Serrano moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Neither fighter gets knocked down (-275 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Realistically, Katie Taylor should feel lucky she isn’t going into this fight on a three-fight losing streak. Chantelle Cameron outpointed her in their first fight two years ago, and she should have won in their rematch instead of losing a highly questionable decision.
Taylor landed 107 fewer punches in the second Amanda Serrano fight, had a point docked after delivering a headbutt, yet somehow came out on top in another questionable decision.
Taylor is a fantastic fighter and a great champion, but it’s clear that at this weight class and at 39 years old, she’s slowing down and can’t rely on grit to continue winning at a high level. Serrano performed better in the rematch and consistently landed the bigger shots throughout the fight, whereas in the first fight, Taylor managed to take over when Serrano slowed down past the sixth round.
Perhaps Taylor’s flash in the first fight was enough to sway the judges slightly in her favor, and the fact she kept coming forward in the second likely helped her out then, but there’s no doubt Serrano has the download and will benefit from a hometown crowd eager to see her finally beat Taylor.
Serrano still needs to cut off the ring and crowd Taylor on the ropes to minimize her output, and also, she can make things easier by directing her power shots to Taylor’s body in an attempt to sap her mobility.
These two cannot be in anything but a competitive fight, and I don’t see things changing that much the third time around.
However, the punishment Taylor has taken over her last five fights is more than she has in her entire professional career, and it’s starting to show. She’ll tough it out, but Serrano smells blood in the water and is ready for revenge. Serrano is the pick.
Best best analysis
We can’t trust the judges in this fight, but we can trust Taylor and Serrano’s chin and resolve. Despite landing heavy leather on each other in two wonderful fights, neither Taylor nor Serrano has come close to hitting the canvas, and that’s a trend the trilogy fight will likely follow.
When it comes to a good bet that has value and is likely to hit, I’m going with the prop of neither fighter being knocked down as my best bet for the fight.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano odds
| Method of victory | Katie Taylor | Amanda Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +150 | -185 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +2200 | +600 |
| Win by points or decision | +170 | -110 |
| Draw | +1200 | +1200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-11.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano tale of the tape
| Taylor | Serrano | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Super Lightweight | Weight Class | Super Lightweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 65.4 inches |
| 24-1 | Record | 47-3-1 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 31 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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