Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 Odds: Mayweather Opens as Favorite

A rematch years in the making lands at the Sphere in Las Vegas and streams globally on Netflix. Here’s an early look at Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 odds.

Chris Vasile - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Vasile • Betting Analyst
Feb 23, 2026 • 20:36 ET • 4 min read
Manny Pacquiao against Floyd Mayweather during their boxing bout.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Manny Pacquiao gainst Floyd Mayweather during their boxing bout.

The first fight broke records. The rematch will break the internet.

Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao meet again on September 19 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, streaming globally on Netflix.

Sportsbooks have released opening odds for the September 19 rematch, installing Mayweather as a -225 favorite over Pacquiao.

Mayweather vs Pacquiao odds

Fighter Odds
Floyd Mayweather Jr.  -225
Manny Pacquiao +171

Odds as of February 23. 

Mayweather opened as a -225 favorite, slightly shorter than his -240 closing price in their first meeting. That suggests books are accounting for age and inactivity, while still respecting his defensive style and previous head-to-head edge.

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Breaking down the opening line

With the rematch confirmed as a sanctioned professional bout under standard rules, sportsbooks had a clear framework for pricing risk. Twelve three-minute rounds, official judges, approved gloves, and commission oversight reduce uncertainty and allow bookmakers to lean on traditional boxing models when setting a line.

That structure helps explain why Mayweather opened as a -225 favorite. Oddsmakers can reference the first fight’s tactical pace and decision outcome rather than guessing how exhibition-style rules might affect volatility.

The first fight blueprint

The pair's first fight on May 2, 2015, went 12 rounds, and Mayweather won a clear unanimous decision as a -240 favorite.

That fight drew a record 4.4 million pay-per-view buys and more than $600 million in revenue. Events of that scale attract massive betting handle, meaning sportsbooks should expect significant early action when lines open.

It wasn’t dramatic. It was controlled. Mayweather set the pace, defended well, and landed cleaner shots. Pacquiao had a few strong moments, but he couldn’t consistently break through.

The important part for bettors: it went the distance, and it was tactical, not violent.

With both fighters now approaching 50, the opening line of Mayweather -225 suggests sportsbooks expect a similar tactical script, favoring control and experience over volatility.

Pacquiao opening at +171 creates a natural underdog draw, and early public action could test whether that number holds.

Current form and activity 

Floyd Mayweather officially retired in 2017 after beating Conor McGregor, but he’s stayed active through exhibitions and high-profile events. At 48, he’s still involved in the spotlight and is scheduled for another exhibition bout in April against Mike Tyson.

Manny Pacquiao retired in 2021 before returning to the ring last July, fighting Mario Barrios to a majority draw in a WBC welterweight title bout. He showed flashes of his old speed, but at 47, the pace isn’t what it once was. Pacquiao is also set for an April exhibition against Ruslan Provodnikov.

For bettors, the key question is timing. Both fighters are staying active, but neither has been in consistent, elite-level competition in recent years. That uncertainty is now reflected in a line that makes Mayweather a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one.

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Chris Vasile Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Chris Vasile is a betting analyst with over 13 years of experience breaking down soccer betting markets, with additional coverage across the WNBA and NFL. He focuses on finding numbers that are slow to adjust — whether it’s due to scheduling spots, player usage, or recent form — and explaining why a line is worth playing. His work has appeared across major betting and sports media platforms, including Covers, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and SportsGrid, where he’s delivered sharp analysis on both mainstream and niche markets. At Covers, he contributes to major tournament coverage and daily betting content, with a particular focus on soccer. He also runs the Game Day Wagers YouTube channel, where he shares daily picks and betting insights tailored for serious bettors.

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