David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde Predictions, Picks & Odds for November 22

David Benavidez makes the first defense of his light heavyweight title against former title challenger Anthony Yarde in our featured boxing attraction of the weekend.

Benavidez is a -900 favorite while Yarde is a +550 underdog.

Here are my free Boxing: Benavidez vs. Yarde predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, November 22. 

Benavidez vs Yarde prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Benavidez moneyline (-900 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Benavidez to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-155 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
David Benavidez is looking to carve his own path to greatness and thin out the herd at light heavyweight, and now that he's been elevated to a full championship status with the WBC, he turns his attention to two-time title challenger Anthony Yarde. As Benavidez bides his time for a unification bout with Dmitry Bivol, Yarde figures to serve as a solid measuring stick for the new champion, as two of his three defeats came to former champions Sergey Kovalev and Artur Beterbiev, and he is known for packing considerable stopping power. However, Benavidez must be prepared as Yarde is in the tail end of his prime and will likely not get another shot at a world title if he fails to win this weekend. 

After a pair of fights at light heavyweight, we can tell that Benavidez is not the same as he was at super middleweight. That isn't a bad thing, as Benavidez is still the same effective pressure fighter and has matured into a true top-tier fighter, as evident in his one-sided victories over former champion Oleksandr Gvozdyk and previously unbeaten David Morrell. He may not have the titanic size advantage he enjoyed previously, but he's looked comfortable, quick on his feet, and demonstrated a solid adjustment to his new division against two very good fighters. 

Yarde can, and does, have the kind of power where he can't be counted out in any fight, though he also has a gas tank and style that conflict with one another. It's been the story of Yarde's career, where he's demonstrated flashes of brilliance only to be done in by his poor conditioning. He looked impressive early against Kovalev and Beterbiev, only for him to run out of gas and options as he was battered and finished by both fighters, simply because he was too tired to defend himself. Worse yet, he's coming off a trilogy win over regional rival Lyndon Arthur, and he looked listless and disengaged. No offense to Arthur, but that is not the kind of fighter to have a trilogy with and still be considered a legitimate world title contender. 

Benavidez tends to start slow and gauge his opponent's approach, then makes his adjustments and walks them down with body punches and rapid-fire combinations. Those early moments might mean Yarde could still have something left past the halfway point, but Benavidez is likely to attack Yarde to the body right away, and he'll be able to draw Yarde into exchanges where he can sneak those shots in while Yarde is swinging away. Beating Benavidez requires a fighter who can disrupt his timing, keep him outside, and use effective footwork. That couldn't be any less representative of Yarde's abilities. This is Benavidez's fight to lose, and he's the pick. 

Best best analysis
Benavidez won’t fall behind in the early rounds, as Yarde will be right there in front of him, trying to make something happen early. Under Benavidez’s pressure and body punches, Yarde will have the steam beaten out of him by the midway point, and Benavidez will push for a stoppage. My best bet is that Benavidez gets the win by knockout. 

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David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-19.

David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde tale of the tape

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