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CLEMSON COVERS BIG NUMBERS
You won't often see a Power 5 team favored by 30+ points against a conference rival – but that's what bettors are dealing with Saturday as the Clemson Tigers find themselves giving up more than five touchdowns against visiting Louisville. The Tigers have been a strong cover option when facing the largest possible spreads, having gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 35 or more points. Clemson has averaged a whopping 50.4 points in that seven-game stretch, while allowing just 29 total points. It's the first time on record that Louisville has been an underdog of 30 or more points.
Given the chasm between the teams – and that Clemson already has three home wins by 30 or more points this season – the sharp play might be on the home team -38. Louisville might also struggle to reach its team total, which sits at around 12; the Cardinals have scored just 37 total points in their three road games.
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HALL ON THE WAY BACK?
The Missouri Tigers might have their No. 1 receiver back in the lineup for Saturday's game against Florida. Emanuel Hall traveled with the team to Gainesville in hopes of hitting the field for the first time since suffering a groin injury in a 43-29 loss to Georgia back on Sept. 29. Hall had been on fire heading into that game, hauling in 18 passes for 430 yards and three touchdowns in three games before being held without a reception against the Bulldogs. His return would be a significant one for a Tigers team that has just one victory in five games after opening the season with three straight wins.
Even if Hall sees limited action, his return bolsters the Tigers' shot at going over on their team total of 24.5. While Missouri did face weaker competition, it has averaged 43.7 points in three games with a healthy Hall this season.
TAKE YOUR TIME, FOLKS
Fans heading to War Memorial Stadium probably won't miss much if they don't show up until the second half. The host Wyoming Cowboys are coming off an impressive 34-21 victory over Colorado State last weekend, but still possess the most anemic first-half offense in the nation as they welcome San Jose State on Saturday. Wyoming has mustered just 5.4 first-half points per game against FBS opponents – but even that might be enough to secure a halftime lead against a Spartans unit that is averaging a minuscule 3.8 first-half road points against FBS foes, the second-lowest away average in the nation.
Even with a rock-bottom first-half total of 18.5, it's hard to reconcile these teams doing much scoring. Bettors should lean toward the under, even with San Jose State scoring 24 first-half points in its previous game, a 50-37 home triumph over UNLV.
ALL ABOUT POSSESSSION
Louisiana-Monroe would love nothing more than to pull off a home upset Saturday against Georgia Southern – but to do so, the Warhawks will need to take much better care of the football. Despite coming off back-to-back victories over Coastal Carolina and Texas State, UL-Monroe enters this one with an ugly minus-6 turnover differential, with just nine turnovers gained and 15 turnovers lost. That won't play well at all against a streaking Eagles team that leads the country in turnover differential at plus-16 (22 turnovers gained, three turnovers lost). Georgia Southern is the only Division I team that hasn't thrown an interception.
Not only does the turnover gap make the visitors a terrific cover play at -6.5, but bettors might want to consider Georgia Southern turning one of those turnovers into a touchdown, which would cash the defensive/special teams score.
BACKFIELD REINFORCEMENTS FOR AZTECS
The San Diego State backfield is about to be a lot more robust, with two key players returning to the fold. Running back Juwan Washington will return to action for the first time since suffering a fractured collarbone in a Sept. 22 victory over Eastern Michigan. Washington is one of the top rushing threats in the nation, with 513 yards and five touchdowns through parts of four games. He won't start Saturday against New Mexico – Chase Jasmin will assume that role – but should see carries. Fullback Isaac Lessard (neck) will also return to the lineup, though he won't start, either.
SDSU should use its potent rush attack to punish a Lobos team that ranks eighth in the 12-team Mountain West in rushing yards allowed per game (171.5) and tied for second in rushing scores allowed (17). The Aztecs are a good play both against the spread (-10) and on the over for their team total of 28.5 (-110).
OLIVER GOOD TO GO
The Houston Cougars might have their best defensive player back in the fold for Saturday's game against Southern Methodist. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver missed last week's 57-36 victory over South Florida with a knee injury but was reportedly close to playing. He's considered day-to-day but is trending upward for this weekend's showdown with the Mustangs. Oliver is widely expected to be a first-round pick in next year's NFL draft; the Houston native has had a sensational season to date, with 51 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble.
If Oliver returns as expected, bettors should downgrade their expectations for the SMU offense; look at the under on their 27.5-point team total (-110) if he's back in the fold.
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WHO’S UNDER CENTER FOR UCLA?
There's some mystery surrounding who will be under center for UCLA this weekend as the Bruins face off against the host Oregon Ducks. Senior Wilton Speight practiced with the starting unit Wednesday after getting the start in place of the injured Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. But Thompson-Robinson returned to practice Tuesday, leaving both players' status for the Oregon game in doubt. Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 1,176 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, while Speight has 413 passing yards with two TDs and three INTs.
The uncertainty surrounding UCLA's QB situation, combined with Oregon's Justin Herbert returning to practice as he continues his recovery from a concussion, puts the betting focus back on the Ducks. This line dropped from Oregon -13 to -8.5 with word that Herbert might miss the game, so now is the time to consider backing the hosts.
MARSHALL THE MAN FOR G-TECH
TaQuon Marshall is ready to return to the Georgia Tech lineup for this Saturday's encounter with rival North Carolina. Head coach Paul Johnson says Marshall will be the starting quarterback for this weekend's game after missing last week's 49-28 win over Virginia Tech with an upper-body injury. Freshman Tobias Oliver filled in, and promptly ran for 215 yards and three scores in the one-sided victory, earning conference Rookie of the Week honors. Oliver and Marshall rank first and second on the team in rushing yards and have combined for 19 scores on the ground.
The return of Marshall will enhance the Yellow Jackets' triple-option attack sufficiently to make the over on their team total an attractive option. With the favorite having gone 4-1 ATS in the last five games of the series, bettors might also want to consider the Yellow Jackets to cover at -6.
NO HARNESS ON HENDERSON
Memphis' electrifying running back will have no limitations when he hits the gridiron this weekend against East Carolina. Darrell Henderson aggravated a leg injury early in the Tigers' 65-33 loss to Missouri on Oct. 20, finishing with just four carries for 15 yards. Head coach Mike Norvell says Henderson won't be on a snap count against ECU as he looks to reach the 100-yard plateau for the sixth time in nine games. The junior standout ranks second in the nation in rushing yards with 1,155, just seven behind Wisconsin Badgers star Jonathan Taylor.
With the Tigers favored by nearly two touchdowns and Henderson averaging an absurd 10.1 yards per carry on the season, taking a Memphis touchdown as the first scoring play is a decent option at +120.
SEMINOLES TAKE HIT
Discipline issues have forced the Florida State Seminoles to be without their top receiving option for the first half of their Saturday afternoon matchup with host N.C. State. Senior wide receiver Nyqwan Murray has been suspended for the opening two quarters against the Wolfpack after throwing punches during last week's loss to Clemson. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart was blunt in his assessment of Murray's actions, calling him "mentally weak." Murray has had a sensational season to date, racking up 40 catches for 536 yards and four touchdowns in eight games.
With Murray out of the lineup, the Wolfpack look like a solid choice to cover both the first-quarter and first-half spreads. N.C. State is also a strong play at -7 on the full-game spread.
DUCKS’ WINGS GET CLIPPED
The Oregon Ducks could be in a whole heap of trouble on the offensive side of the ball this weekend against visiting UCLA. Junior quarterback Justin Herbert missed practice Tuesday as he recovers from a concussion suffered in last weekend's game against the Arizona Wildcats. He was placed in the concussion protocol after the game despite not being removed from the 44-15 loss. Herbert has had an up-and-down campaign in his third year at the helm of the Ducks' offense, completing just 59.6 percent of his passes for 2,069 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight games.
Oddsmakers are bracing for Herbert's absence, dropping the line from Oregon -13 all the way down to -7.5. We recommend jumping on the Bruins at this number, which will likely shrink even further if Herbert doesn't show progress in his recovery.
