Are you ready for the XFL in primetime? The 2023 edition of this spring football league puts its two best offenses on display when the Houston Roughnecks visit the Seattle Sea Dragons.
Wade Phillips’ Roughnecks are undefeated through four weeks this season and have looked like the class of the XFL, but they'll have to be sharp if they want to keep that record perfect.
That’s because they’ll have to deal with arguably the best and most balanced offense in the XFL when they take on the Sea Dragons.
I break down the XFL odds for this Week 5 matchup and bring you the best bet in my XFL free betting picks for Roughnecks vs. Sea Dragons.
Roughnecks vs Sea Dragons odds
| Houston Roughnecks | Seattle Sea Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (-110) | Spread | +3.5 (-110) |
| -165 | Moneyline | +140 |
| Over 41.5 (-110) | Total | Under 41.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 15, 2023.
Roughnecks vs Sea Dragons picks and predictions
The Houston Roughnecks have looked a cut above the rest during this XFL season. Not only are they a perfect 4-0, but they haven’t played a game closer than nine points. This is the most complete-looking roster from top to bottom in the league.
The Roughnecks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, allowing just 4.2 yards per play and 13.8 points per game while also leading the XFL in sacks, but it’s no surprise a Wade Phillips-coached team has a good defense.
However, you can make the case that this Roughnecks defense has yet to be tested. They've played the Orlando Guardians — the worst team in the league — twice, the San Antonio Brahmas and the Arlington Renegades, the other two lowest-scoring teams in the league.
The matchup against the Seattle Sea Dragons won’t be as easy. The Sea Dragons’ offensive coordinator is June Jones, the former head coach of the Roughnecks in version 2.0 of the XFL and he's built the most balanced offense in the XFL.
Sea Dragons quarterback Ben DiNucci leads the XFL in passing yards, is completing nearly 70% of his attempts, and has thrown eight touchdowns. He’s the only QB to throw for more than 1,000 yards through four games.
His wide receiver trio of Josh Gordon, Jahcour Pearson, and Blake Jackson is the best in the league, while running back Morgan Ellison leads the XFL with 239 yards at a clip of 5.1 yards per carry.
What's more surprising is that this Roughnecks offense has been almost as good as the defense. QB Brandon Silvers is second in passing yards with 962, and his 10 TD passes lead the league. Running back Max Borghi is the XFL’s Austin Ekeler, used in both on the ground and the passing attack.
Silvers should be able to move the ball downfield against the Sea Dragons. In a Week 3 meeting against the Vegas Vipers, they allowed Brett Hundley to throw for 228 yards on just 13 completions.
In a showcase of the XFL’s best offenses, I’m betting those offenses show up and go Over this total.
My best bet: Over 41.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Roughnecks vs Sea Dragons spread analysis
The Roughnecks opened this game as 3-point road favorites and have been moved to -3.5 as of Wednesday evening. That’s a lot of respect for a road team in this spring league, but Houston hasn’t really given oddsmakers much of a choice.
The roster is the most talented from top to bottom in the XFL and not only are the Roughnecks a perfect 4-0 straight up, but they're also 4-0 against the spread as well, never playing a game closer than nine points.
I would lean toward the Roughnecks here as well. They have the better defense, and while DiNucci has racked up the yards for the Sea Dragons, he's had a problem with turnovers this season, throwing four interceptions and fumbling five times. That won’t play well against an aggressive Houston defense.
Roughnecks vs Sea Dragons Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup is on the board at 41.5. That’s one of the higher totals we've seen during version 3.0 of the XFL but it's deserved in a game featuring two of the best offenses in the league.
We’ve already broken down why we like the Over above, but for good measure, Houston averages a league-best 30.5 points per game, while Seattle puts up a respectable 20.3 points per game.
Roughnecks vs Sea Dragons betting trend to know
The Roughnecks and Sea Dragons are a combined 5-3 to the Over this season.
| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle Washington |
| Date: | Thursday, March 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
