XFL Week 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Defense Will Be On Display for Sunday’s Lone Game

Sunday's XFL action sees the lowest total of the Week when San Antonio plays host to Arlington. With both South Divison offenses underwhelming thus far, our Week 5 XFL picks expect a low-scoring four quarters between the Renegades and Brahmas.

Last Updated: Mar 18, 2023 7:02 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Willie Taylor Arlington Renegades XFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 in the XFL wasn’t exactly ripe with drama, as the closest final was nine points, but Week 5 promises more intrigue.

Two of the top teams in the North Division, the DC Defenders and the St. Louis Battlehawks, do battle in a rematch of a hotly contested and high-scoring Week 3 meeting. One of the Vegas Vipers or Orlando Guardians will bust out for their first win. And, in the South, the Arlington Renegades and the San Antonio Brahmas open a home-and-home series over the next two weeks.

I break down the week’s spring football odds and bring you my free XFL picks for Week 5.

XFL picks for Week 5

Picks made on 3/16/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Week 5 XFL odds and predictions

D.C. Defenders vs St. Louis Battlehawks

Saturday, 7:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+

D.C. Defenders St. Louis Battlehawks
-1.5 (-110) Spread +1.5 (-110)
-125 Moneyline +105
Over 42.5 Total Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 16, 2023.

The DC Defenders will look to keep their record perfect and improve to 5-0 this week, but it won’t be easy as they head to the most raucous venue in the XFL, The Dome, home of the 3-1 St. Louis Battlehawks.

This is the second meeting between these two teams in the last three weeks. The Defenders came out on top in what was one of the highest-scoring games during this XFL season, winning 34-28. That game will also be remembered for the brawl at the end after the Battlehawks were upset with some Defenders players and the officials.

Things might be even more intense in The Dome this weekend as the Battlehawks are out for revenge.

It helps that they are coming off one of their most complete performances of the season, defeating the Arlington Renegades 24-11 in their home opener. Quarterback A.J. McCarron had another efficient game, going 20-for-27 for 214 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

If he limits the turnovers this week (he had three in that week three meeting) the Battlehawks will have a great opportunity to move the football through the air vs. a defense that has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 595 yards and six touchdowns while completing 67.5% of their passes the last two weeks.

Defenders' QB Jordan Ta’amu has been better the last few weeks, but DC is still a run-heavy offense and managed just 3.5 yards per carry when these two last met. 

St. Louis will ride the arm of its quarterback and the momentum of its home crowd to exact some revenge on the Defenders, handing them their first loss of the season.

Pick: Battlehawks moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)

Orlando Guardians vs Vegas Vipers

Saturday, 10:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+

Orlando Guardians Vegas Vipers
+7 (-110) Spread -7 (-110)
+275 Moneyline -330
Over 42 Total Under 42

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 16, 2023

There will be only one remaining winless XFL team this week after Orlando Guardians visit the Vegas Vipers. Despite both teams being 0-4, not all things are created equal. That couldn’t be more clear as the Vipers are favored by a touchdown in this matchup.

It’s been kind of a tough go for Vegas this season. The Vipers lost by two in their opener, where they didn’t allow an offensive touchdown but had two pick-sixes. The weather has been a big issue in two games. And, when Brett Hundley finally balls out for them, he gets hurt almost immediately.

Hundley has been practicing all week, but spring football stalwart Luis Perez was solid in last week’s loss to the DC Defenders so it will be interesting to see who will get the call for the Vipers under center.

Hundley gave this team a big boost in his lone start for the Vipers, throwing for 224 yards and two touchdowns while adding 66 yards and a score on the ground in a Week 3 loss to the Seattle Sea Dragons. Next is a Guardians' defense that allows a league-worst 29.8 points per game.

On offense, the Guardians have had trouble scoring, but QB Paxton Lynch has been playing better and the team has some respectable yardage numbers, ranking fifth in passing yards, and third in rushing yards per attempt. Their biggest problem has been punching it in.

The Vipers give up the next most points per game at 25.5 and their 366.8 yards surrendered per game is the worst in the XFL. Somehow this becomes a surprising shootout.

Pick: Over 42 (-110 at DraftKings)

Arlington Renegades vs San Antonio Brahmas

Sunday, 9:00 pm ET, ESPN2/ESPN+

Arlington Renegades San Antonio Brahmas
+3 (-110) Spread -3 (-110)
+125 Moneyline -145
Over 35.5 Total Under 35.5

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 16, 2023.

There is a game this week featuring two winless teams but this matchup between the Arlington Renegades and the San Antonio Brahmas might be the least intriguing of Week 5. Well, it certainly has the lowest total of the week at 35.5.

These two South Division foes play each other in back-to-back weeks in what could go a long way in determining who will end up facing the Houston Roughnecks in the playoffs.

Arlington might be the most underwhelming 2-2 team in the XFL. The Renegades haven’t scored more than 14 points in a game since Week 1, Bob Stoops hasn’t really figured out what to do at the quarterback position, and they are getting nothing out of the running game getting just 2.6 yards per carry. As a result, the team ranks dead last in the XFL in yards per game.

San Antonio’s offense isn’t much better and is a big reason why the team is just 1-3 through four weeks. The Brahams run a dink-and-dunk offense with Jack Coan at QB and the results are uninspiring. They rank next to last in scoring at 16 points per game, and yards per game.

Conversely, the defenses haven’t been awful. Arlington ranks third in yards allowed per game and gives up 19 points per game, while San Antonio ranks fifth in yards per game and surrenders 16.8 points per game.

This game should be tight, and that means low scoring for these two.

Pick: Under 35.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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