The Dallas Wings finally broke through with their first win of the 2025 WNBA season and now take aim at a struggling Chicago Sky team still stuck in neutral at 0-4 heading into tonight’s matchup.
While the Sky have plenty of problems to sort out, their biggest liability is on defense—especially beyond the arc. Opponents have been feasting from deep, and that spells trouble against a sniper like Arike Ogunbowale.
I’m locking in on Ogunbowale to take full advantage of Chicago’s perimeter lapses in my Wings vs. Sky predictions. Back her points total or 3-point props as Dallas looks to stack wins against a winless Sky squad.
Here are my best WNBA picks on Thursday, May 29.
Wings vs Sky predictions
My Wings vs Sky best bet: Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 threes (-110 FanDuel)
The first five games of the new season have been a transition period for Arike Ogunbowale.
With No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers joining her in the Dallas Wings backcourt, Ogunbowale can play off the ball more and focus on scoring. This is a stark contrast to past seasons for the Wings’ sparkplug, who's been ball-dominant throughout her career.
While her output has been up and down in the opening four games, Arike started to settle in during Dallas’ win over Connecticut on Tuesday.
She scored 17 of her 19 total points in the second half, including making three straight 3-pointers in the third quarter. She went 4-for-10 from the field in the second half, with a 3-for-8 count from outside.
“Just trying to be more aggressive,” Ogunbowale told DallasHoopsJournal.com after finding her form in the 2H. “I don’t think I’ve been as aggressive as I’ve been. I’ve just been trying to get used to the system, trying not to overdo it, and still share the ball. But I definitely had to get back to myself — and I think I did in the second half.”
Ogunbowale has a perfect opportunity to carry that momentum over into tonight’s matchup with the Chicago Sky.
The Sky sit dead last in the WNBA in defensive rating (113.6), rooted in poor perimeter protection. Chicago has watched foes launch up 30.5 3-point attempts per contest while knocking down an average of 13.8 triples (45%).
The Sky allowed Phoenix to connect on 16 threes and gave up 94 points in Tuesday’s loss, as four different members of the Mercury made three 3-pointers. Chicago has a strong interior but the aging legs of guards like Kia Nurse and Courtney Vandersloot are slow closing out on outside shooters.
WNBA player models for Ogunbowale range from 2.3 to 2.8 makes from distance, but I’m much more bullish on her output from outside tonight. Given her focused roll as a shooter and the Sky’s piss-poor defense, I see her knocking down at least three from downtown.
Paige Bueckers pick: Open the Sky to Have Her Way
My best bet
Paige Bueckers SGP 15+ points/5+ assists (+120 bet365)
Bueckers stuffed the stat sheet in Dallas’ win over Connecticut, scoring 21 points while dishing out seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.
The Wings really found their footing on Tuesday after an inconsistent start to the schedule and you can see players figuring out their roles on a roster that underwent a major overhaul this offseason.
Chicago’s defense is dreadful and the backcourt isn’t providing much pushback against opponents. Rival guards are smoking the Sky for 55.6 points per game — a WNBA high. Chicago has played at a quicker tempo — sitting third in pace rating — but isn’t controlled, leading to a league-high 19.8 turnovers.
Teams have quickly flipped those miscues into easy buckets the other way, with the Sky getting cooked in transition and on fastbreaks. Bueckers loves to get out and run and will be at the wheel of this offense, either scoring or setting up her teammates.
Player projections sit around 15-plus points and flirt with seven assists. She’s averaging 14.6 points and more than six dimes in her first five games, with most of those contests coming against far stingier defense.
This same game parlay of 15+ points and 5+ assists is very realistic considering the matchup and the maturity she showed in her last appearance. Other books have this SGP paying -115 but you can get +120 at bet365.
Wings vs Sky same-game parlay (SGP)
Arike Ogunbowale 3+ threes
Paige Bueckers 15+ points
Paige Bueckers 5+ assists
The Sky stink at protecting the perimeter and Arike just told the media she needs to be more aggressive after dropping 17 points in the final 20 minutes of Tuesday’s win.
Bueckers’ projections sit right around 15 points, which is just shy of her scoring average to start the season. But Chicago is dreadful defensively, especially against talented guards.
Paige is dishing out more than six dimes per game as she finds her way with her new team. Game models sit closer to seven assists tonight.
Wings vs Sky odds
Wings vs Sky live odds
Wings vs Sky opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -3.5 (-110) | Chicago +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas -165 | Chicago +140
- Over/Under: Over 169.5 (-110) | Under 169.5 (-110)
Wings vs Sky trend
Dallas is a 2-point favorite on the road. Road chalk is 9-6 ATS (60%) to start the WNBA season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sky.
How to watch Wings vs Sky
| Location | Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, 5-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon |
Wings vs Sky latest injuries
Wings: None.
Sky: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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