The 5-22 Connecticut Sun may be looking up at every other WNBA squad in the standings, but the team has won two of its last four games and will look to carry that momentum into Tuesday’s matchup with the Phoenix Mercury.
My Sun vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks for Tuesday, August 5 find value in a Marina Mabrey combo prop.
Sun vs Mercury predictions
My Sun vs Mercury best bet: Marina Mabrey Over 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 at bet365)
The Connecticut Sun have covered in seven of their last nine games, but the team spent six straight and eight of the last 10 at home. Conversely, the Phoenix Mercury are just 2-5 ATS across their last seven, but the team has spent five straight and seven of eight on the road.
The oddsmakers heavily favor Phoenix, but given Connecticut’s competitive play as of late, it’s tough to spot the Sun 15 points. Both teams have had too many peaks and valleys for me to feel comfortable betting the spread, so I won’t. Instead, I’m taking three player props with my best bet centering on Marina Mabrey.
This combo line for Mabrey is set deliciously low at just 20.5. After missing nine straight, she’s appeared in five games and started each of the last four. In her first three games back in action, Mabrey averaged just 14.3 PRA across 21 minutes. Over her last two, she’s averaged 25.5 PRA across 32 minutes.
In 13 games prior to her extended absence, Mabrey averaged 24.3 PRA and hit the Over on this line seven times.
Mabrey will need to be at her best if the Sun hope to stay competitive on the road. She’s trending in the right direction in terms of health and court time, and this may be the lowest her combo line is offered for the foreseeable future. Take the value now.
Sun vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Marina Mabrey Over 20.5 points + rebounds + assists
Kahleah Copper Over 17.5 points
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists
Kahleah Copper has missed more games than she’s played in 2025 due to injuries, but she’s been effective as a scorer when on the court.
In 12 games, she’s averaged 16.3 points and gone for at least 18 four times. She’s been red-hot over her last three, averaging 22 points and hitting the mark on this prop in each game.
Tonight’s matchup with the last-place Sun offers a great opportunity to score at a high volume once again.
Alyssa Thomas leads the Association in assists per game at 9.0, and she’s handed out at least that many assists in 11 of 23 contests.
Phoenix has no shortage of strong scoring options, as Copper has been rolling, and Satou Sabally will return following a one-game absence. DeWanna Bonner has also been a worthy scorer, albeit in limited minutes.
With so many great scorers around her, Thomas should have no problem clearing this assists line.
Sun vs Mercury odds
Sun vs Mercury live odds
Sun vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut +15 (-110) | Phoenix -15 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut +750 | Phoenix -1200
- Over/Under: Over 167 (-110) | Under 167 (-110)
Sun vs Mercury trend
The Sun have won and covered in four of the last five head-to-head matchups with the Mercury. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mercury.
How to watch Sun vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, 8-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | AZFS, NBCSB |
Sun vs Mercury latest injuries
Sun: None.
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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