The top two teams in the WNBA’s Western Conference will face off in a key Commissioner’s Cup battle on Sunday night as the Minnesota Lynx host the Seattle Storm.
The Storm are riding a six-game winning streak and are a perfect 2-0 in the Commissioner’s Cup, the WNBA’s in-season tournament. The Lynx are coming off a 1-point loss at the Mercury, which broke a three-game winning streak.
I’ll look at whether Minnesota can recover at home and take the top spot in the West in my Storm vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks for June 9.
Storm vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Lynx moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
While much of the basketball world’s attention has been on the Eastern Conference of the WNBA — whether it Caitlin Clark and the Fever, or the great starts for the Sun and Liberty — the Minnesota Lynx have quietly been one of the best teams in the league over the first 10 games of the season.
Minnesota has been one of the best shooting teams in the league this year. The Lynx lead the WNBA in field goal percentage (45.5%), 3-point shooting (39.3%), and points per game (85.7). Combine that with a strong defensive effort — Minnesota’s 92.0 defensive rating is third in the league — and it becomes clear how the Lynx are outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per game in the early going of the 2024 season.
The Lynx have been led by former UConn star Napheesa Collier, who's having the kind of year that could earn her some down-ballot MVP consideration. The 6-foot-1 forward is averaging 21.6 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, ranking in the Top 5 in the league in both categories.
However, this is far from a one-woman show in Minnesota. Kayla McBride (16.6 ppg) has been a consistent contributor on the offensive end, with the sharpshooting guard hitting 48.6% from 3-point range. Alanna Smith (12.5 ppg) has also been hitting at a 46.4% clip from deep. The variety of weapons available for the Lynx has forced opponents out of their defensive schemes by extending the floor and making them pay for open looks.
The Seattle Storm come in on a hot streak, having now won six in a row after a 1-3 start to the season. By no means are the Storm a team to be easily dismissed, as they've established themselves as one of the toughest defensive teams in the WNBA this year.
However, their strengths don’t play well against Minnesota’s offense. Ezi Magbegor is a dominating low post presence, blocking 3.0 shots per game to lead the WNBA in that category, but against a team that spreads the floor and shoots from deep, the impact of those blocks and impacted shots is lessened.
Minnesota won the first two games between these teams this year, and despite Seattle’s run of good play, there’s no reason to discount the Lynx at home.
Storm vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx moneyline
Napheesa Collier 20+ points
Kayla McBride 15+ points
I’m going all-in on Minnesota’s stars for my SGP tonight. That starts with the same Lynx moneyline bet as I made above, with additional bets on their top scorers to hit a couple of scoring milestones. I’m taking Collier to go for 20+, which she's done in each of her last three games, and McBride to hit the 15-point mark, something she’s done in two of her last three.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Lynx odds
Storm vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Storm vs. Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Seattle +3 | Minnesota -3
- Moneyline: Seattle +120 | Minnesota -140
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Storm vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened tonight’s game as about a 3-point favorite, but the script has flipped, with most books now listing Storm -1 as their main line. If you shop around enough, you can still find either side as an underdog on some sites.
- The Lynx are 8-2 against the number this season, while the Storm are 7-3 ATS.
- The total on tonight’s game has come down significantly, opening at around 162.5 before dropping to the current consensus Over/Under of 158.5.
- These teams split on the total in their first two meetings this season, hitting the Under in Seattle before going Over in an overtime game in Minnesota.
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Storm vs Lynx trend
The Lynx are 5-1 SU against the Storm over their last six meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Lynx.
Storm vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports, Bally North |
Storm vs Lynx latest injuries
Storm: No key injuries to report.
Lynx: Diamond Miller F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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