Last night was the first game of a back-to-back between the Los Angeles Sparks and New York Liberty.
The urgency to push for the final playoff spot was the same for both teams, but the result on the scoreboard told a different story. The result was a 29-point shellacking that might be the nail in the coffin for a tumultuous Sparks season filled with disappointment.
With the regular season ending next week, every game counts for both the Sparks and Liberty, but only one of these teams appears primed and ready for a playoff berth.
Sparks vs Liberty odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
FanDuel opened up their lines well in advance the day before to a -3.5 spread in favor of the Liberty. The other sportsbooks weren't as optimistic about the Sparks as they released their odds after the blowout performance on Tuesday evening. The Liberty are a -6 favorite at all other sportsbooks.
Similarly, FanDuel opened their total at 160.5, which is noticeably different from the 165.5 total at all other sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sparks vs Liberty predictions
Predictions made on 8/3/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sparks vs Liberty info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS Sports
Sparks vs Liberty betting preview
Key injuries
Sparks: Kristi Toliver G (Ques), Chiney Ogwumike (Ques), Rae Burrell F (Out).
Liberty: Betnijah Laney G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Sparks' last six vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Liberty.
Sparks vs Liberty picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
With the Xbox gaming console theme daunting the Liberty's home court at the Barclays, they will run it back again with the Sparks for the second night in a row.
Last night's tilt was interesting, as the Liberty and Spark are both technically still alive in the playoff race, battling for the final spot.
For anyone following the Sparks this year, it might come as a complete shock that they aren't mathematically out of the playoff equation yet.
They have been an uninspiring basketball team, filled with drama, most recently stemming from the departure of Liz Cambage. Los Angeles is 3-7 in its last 10 games and has looked like maybe the worst team in all of the WNBA.
Los Angeles is a team that isn't good. They don't shoot the three well, their ball movement is stagnant, and they don't stop anyone on defense, as evidenced by their 11th-ranked defensive rating. Last night, against a beatable Liberty team, the Sparks, fighting for their season, fell behind by double digits in the first half and ultimately got run off the court.
The Liberty haven't been any better record-wise in their last 10 games, going 4-6, but they've reached higher highs this season and showed great grit in splitting games in late July with the powerhouse Chicago Sky.
The Liberty are an inconsistent team, but when they click, it's primarily due to their ability to space the floor and hit shots from behind the arc. They shot more threes than anyone else in the league this season and hit them at a 35% clip, good for fourth in the league. That doesn't bode well for a Sparks team that gives up the second most points per game (85.5).
The Sparks' Bottom-3 defense will have issues containing the likes of Sabrina Ionescu on the perimeter. The Liberty have averaged 88 points per game against the Bottom-3 defenses in the WNBA for the season.
Look for the reeling Sparks to be at an even further deficit, with valuable players in Kristi Toliver and Chiney Ogwumike questionable tonight.
The Liberty are playing with far more fire, urgency, and grit and are mostly healthy. They will beat the reeling Sparks handily again.
Prediction: Liberty -3.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
For all the losses the Sparks have accumulated this year, they possess a positive Over/Under record at 18-12. This is primarily due to the number of points they give up per game, which is only ahead of the Indiana Fever.
In their last 10 games, Los Angeles has only held an opponent under 80 points twice. That's not indicative of a team looking to make the playoffs.
Like the first two games in this series, this battle will come down to the physicality in the paint. We know the Liberty prefer to shoot their way to a victory, but with Cambage no longer manning the paint for the Sparks, it was easier for Natasha Howard to have a big game, scoring 24 points and grabbing 11 rebounds.
She got the better of Nneka Ogwumike and has grabbed double-digit rebounds in six of her last eight games. The Liberty have an even 15-15 Over/Under record.
Ionescu is also a scary factor to consider for the Sparks. While some better defenses in the league have found some success against her, she typically devours poor ones with her incredible ability to control a game with her scoring, passing, and rebounding. Last night, she was magnificent yet again, scoring 31 points and looking like one of the best players in the league.
While the Sparks' best player, Ogwumike, struggled last night, we should expect a far more inspired performance from her tonight. Her two rebounds were her second-lowest output of the season and were not reflective of her ability to attack the boards and impact games in a real way.
The Sparks will likely be more inspired in this one, but will probably be playing catch-up by halftime again. We could be in for plenty of garbage time points as I believe the Liberty will take command with a big offensive showing.
Prediction: Over 161.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Best bet
One of the key players for the Liberty all season has been the 30-year-old Howard. She's been perhaps the most reliable basketball player in New York over the last year, including the Knicks and Nets.
Howard is grabbing 7.4 rebounds per game for the year, the ninth-best mark in the WNBA. She is currently on an impressive streak, grabbing over 10 rebounds in five straight games. Just last night, she wouldn't be denied, willing herself to 11 rebounds, out-hustling everyone else on the court.
Howard is playing with a sense of urgency as the playoffs are still possible for the Liberty should they close out these final games strong.
Pick: Natasha Howard Over 8.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
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