The Commissioner’s Cup adds stakes to early-season WNBA games, but some WNBA picks can be made simply by recognizing truly wretched defense.
Yes, that is referencing the Mercury before tonight’s games on Wednesday, June 3.
Top WNBA player prop bets for today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Flau'jae Johnson |
Over 1.5 3-pointers | +178 |
 Marina Mabrey |
Over 17.5 points | -120 |
 Alyssa Thomas |
Under 15.5 points | -112 |
Flau'jae Johnson Over 1.5 3-pointers
By no means should anyone assume the Seattle Storm will replicate the Lynx’s 10-of-17 shooting from deep against the Phoenix Mercury on Monday night, but the Storm should still enjoy a quality night against the worst 3-point defense in the WNBA.
Opponents are hitting an outrageous 39.8% of their 3-point attempts against the Mercury this season while taking nearly 26 per game.
Phoenix may fix this worry at some point, but in 48 hours, while also traveling to Seattle? That is rather unlikely.
Rookie Flau’jae Johnson has not erupted much this season, but she has taken 4.4 threes per game. Those should be open looks tonight. This plus-money payout is priced as if she will take only four contested 3-pointers. It is more likely that Johnson sees five open looks. As long as this lives above +150, it is of distinct value.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: USA Network, Amazon Prime
Marina Mabrey Over 17.5 points
Nobody is giving up more looks from deep than the New York Liberty, opponents taking 29.1 3-pointers per game, a full shot more than No. 14 in the WNBA, the Lynx. There are two worrying differences in this regard between New York and Minnesota. First of all, Lynx opponents hit only 28.1% of their 3-pointers, No. 2 in the league, while Liberty foes hit 32.8%, a middling number.
Second of all, Minnesota plays at a decent pace, No. 4 in the WNBA. Giving up 28.1 looks from deep on an influx of possessions is not that concerning. New York plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. Those 29.1 deep shots are a greater percentage of an opponent’s offense.
Enter Marina Mabrey.
The Toronto Tempo veteran has hit at least three 3-pointers in each of her last three games while shooting 35.5% from deep this season.
Mabrey’s 3-pointers prop is juiced to -125 on the Over 2.5. Taking this points prop instead enjoys the benefit of those likely threes while also leaning into the fact that Mabrey has cleared this modest prop in four of her last five games, averaging 18.8 points.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: USA Network, Amazon Prime
Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 points
Consider this to be doubt in Phoenix’s defense. It is No. 14 in defensive rating, giving up 110 points per 100 possessions. Fortunately for the Mercury, the Storm’s offensive rating also ranks No. 14 in the league.
But when a movable object meets a stoppable force, give the edge to the offense. And every Seattle success will give the Storm a chance to set their defense, thus harming Alyssa Thomas’s scoring chances.
The Storm defense already fares well, No. 5 in the WNBA. Getting to set itself may be an unprecedented delight. And it should cut into every piece of Phoenix’s offense.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: USA Network, Amazon Prime
Where to bet on WNBA player props
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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