You better put the coffee on if you’re betting on the WNBA tonight.
All three Commissioner's Cup contests are in the Western Conference and tip off at 10 p.m. ET.
I size up the WNBA player props and prefer these odds to my chances of staying awake until the final whistles of tonight's games.
Here are my best WNBA picks and predictions for June 11.
WNBA player prop bets for June 11
Ogunbowale o2.5 threes (+125)
Williams o3.5 assists (-135)
Wilson 20+ points/o10.5 rebounds (+130)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
The return of Paige Bueckers to the Dallas Wings’ backcourt should put a smile on Arike Ogunbowale's face.
Dallas’ offense sees a significant spike with the No. 1 overall pick on the floor, specifically Ogunbowale’s output. With Bueckers at point guard, it allows Arike to play off the ball and focus on putting up points.
She had an offensive rating of 104.8 in the first six games with Bueckers in the lineup but saw that advanced metric sink to 95.9 in the four games without her backcourt mate.
The Wings are bigger road underdogs against the Phoenix Mercury tonight, painting a game script that says Dallas will be playing from behind and needing big buckets to keep pace.
In the first six games of the schedule — with Bueckers in action — Ogunbowale averaged eight 3-point attempts and 2.5 makes from long range, hitting three or more triples in three of those outings. Even without Buckers in the last game, Arike was feeling it from outside and knocked down 6 of 11 shots from distance.
Player projections hover around 2.5 makes from long range tonight and with Bueckers back and Arike playing a pure shooting guard, I’ll take the Over 2.5 triples at plus-money.
Gabby Williams Over 3.5 assists (-135 at BetMGM)
The Seattle Storm have won two straight and put a three-game slide behind them, thanks in part to Gabby Williams.
The French guard does it all for the Storm, including setting up her teammates. She’s averaging four assists on the season and has dished out four or more dimes in four of her last six games, including seven in Saturday’s win over Phoenix.
Seattle runs into the undefeated Minnesota Lynx in this Commissioner's Cup contest, having last lost to the Lynx by five on May 27. Williams finished that game with 20 points and six assists.
Player projections sit around 3.5 assists from Williams but we’re seeing quick movement on her assist prop market. This total opened 3.5 O/U and jumped to 4.5 O/U at some books with strong action on the Over, but there are still 3.5s available.
A’Ja Wilson SGP 20+ points/Over 10.5 rebounds (+130 at bet365)
Losing by 27 points to a brand-new franchise — when you’re set as 12.5-point favorites — serves as a big wake-up call to the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces were stunned by Golden State on the weekend, prompting head coach Becky Hammon to put her team on blast for their lack of effort in the upset. Las Vegas followed that with a solid practice on Tuesday and faces a Los Angeles Sparks squad it beat by 15 points back on May 30.
Star center A’Ja Wilson scored 35 points and pulled down 13 rebounds in that win and player models call for another big night, with scoring projections north of 20 points and rebounding forecasts around 11.
Her prop markets have Wilson’s scoring total at 24.5 O/U, after opening at 23.5 O/U, and her rebounding total is at 10.5 with the Over juiced to -130. I’m going to combine her Over 10.5 board with the milestone market of 20+ points, which comes out to +130 at bet365.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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