If Caitlin Clark is sidelined much longer, the Indiana Fever may need to start worrying about making the playoffs at all. Then again, rushing Clark back from muscle ailments has been what has repeatedly sidelined the superstar.
Without her against the Las Vegas Aces tonight, these WNBA prop picks focus on a different superstar in that matchup, one with more offensive incentive because Clark is out.
Find out more in my WNBA picks for Thursday, July 24.
WNBA player prop bets for July 24
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points (-102)
Angel Reese Over 12.5 Rebounds (+105)
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+120)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points (-102 at FanDuel)
Caitlin Clark’s usage rate is 31.5%, a rather lofty number. For context: A’ja Wilson’s usage rate last season was 32.2% as she won her third MVP. Without Clark, the Fever workload falls to Kelsey Mitchell (26.5% this season) and Aliyah Boston (21.4%).
Mitchell averages four more points per game than Boston does, but the post player’s shooting percentage is far higher. Boston also averages 1.2 more assists per game than Mitchell. Without Clark around, Indiana’s offense usually runs through Boston.
A distinct way for the Las Vegas Aces to minimize her impact offensively will be to attack her on the other end of the court with Wilson, who has already cleared this prop in three straight games and in five of her last seven.
Las Vegas keeps preaching about its need for consistent defense, but that often begins with a made bucket from Wilson.
Angel Reese Over 12.5 Rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
The Minnesota Lynx stand atop the WNBA standings for a pile of reasons, enjoying both the best offensive and defensive ratings in the league. That defensive rating builds upon what was a stellar defense last year.
It forces turnovers at the second-highest rate in the WNBA while playing at the third-slowest pace. There are, obviously, fewer rebounding opportunities whenever playing the Lynx, helping to explain how Angel Reese fell short of this prop in her last three games, all against Minnesota in a scheduling quirk.
Before that, she had cleared this prop in six of her last seven, averaging 16.1 rebounds per game in those seven games.
Do not let Reese’s mild lull against the Lynx dissuade you from trusting her now. The Lynx do that to everyone.
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+120 at FanDuel)
All due respect to the oddsmakers working in the fancy buildings, but why do they continue to disrespect Kelsey Plum? This prop has remained at plus-money the last few weeks, even though she has cleared this prop in five straight games.
Plum has shot 51.6% from deep in those five games despite facing defenses in the top three in opponent 3-point percentage in four of those five games. Even when opponents force only bad looks, Plum is hitting them.
The Connecticut Sun are bottom three in opponent 3-point percentage. This is a ripe chance for Plum to enjoy some good looks for a change. Yet, this sits at plus-money.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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