Best WNBA Player Props Today: Phoenix Falls Flat vs Wilson

Prop bet #1: A rested Caitlin Clark

It is hard to fault the WNBA calendar for the absurdly quick turnaround rookies need to endure. In order to capitalize on viewership, the WNBA plays in the summer, largely opposite in the year of the NBA. This makes sense. And it directly leads to someone like Caitlin Clark having less than five weeks to recover from a national championship appearance before her professional career begins.

It is exhausting.

Top it off with the WNBA overloading the early Indiana Fever schedule — 11 games in the first 18 days of the season — and it's no wonder Clark is exhausted.

That has been most clear when the rookie phenom has had a chance to rest. In four games with at least two days off beforehand, including her debut, Clark has averaged 22.5 points, only once falling short of 20 points. In her other nine games, she has averaged 13.6 points and cleared tonight’s points prop just three times.

The one time Clark disappointed with rest was against the WNBA’s best defense, a 10-point showing against the Connecticut Sun on Monday night in which she played just 22 minutes as Fever head coach Christie Sides tried to make a point about her starting lineup’s effort.

Clark should return to her usual workload tonight, and the Atlanta Dream are 8.2 points per 100 possessions worse defensively than the Sun, so two full days off should be enough to cut Clark loose.

Caitlin Clark prop: Over 17.5 points (+100 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Ogunbowale’s offensive overload

Some of Arike Ogunbowale’s ugly shooting this year ties to her own choices. Despite taking more than 24 shots per game, she is shooting just 33.6% in her last six games. Ogunbowale’s best shooting performance in the last three weeks was going 9-of-23 (39.1%) in a 14-point loss to the Aces.

Some of her ugly shooting this year ties to the Dallas Wings roster. It ranks second-to-last in the WNBA in rate of assisting on shots. Even when she is shooting this much, Ogunbowale is by far Dallas’s best playmaker, as well. She is, effectively, a one-woman offense, given no one else on the roster averages more than 15 points per game.

Fading Ogunbowale tonight is as much a reflection of the Wings’ roster worries as it is of her poor shooting.

The Seattle Storm have the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA, and both Jewell Loyd and Skylar Diggins-Smith have personal enough relationships with Ogunbowale as to relish that defensive matchup. (All three went to Notre Dame under Muffet McGraw.)

Ogunbowale might be chucking, but she has topped this points prop just twice in her last six games, this stretch where her shooting percentages have thoroughly plumetted. One of those came against the Aces, who, as hard as this is to believe, have a below-average defense this year. The other came on Sunday by just the hook against the Mercury, another below-average defense.

Worthwhile defenses can focus their attention entirely on Ogunbowale, and Seattle will.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Under 24.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: A'ja's doing it all

The Las Vegas Aces have lost three straight games for the first time in more than three seasons, the entire tenure of head coach Becky Hammon. Their defensive rating sits No. 7 in the WNBA, while the offensive rating has rallied in recent weeks, up to No. 3.

The offense has been dragged forward by A’ja Wilson’s sheer will power. The WNBA’s best player is not going to fall to the bottom half of the standings quietly. She has scored at least 28 points in seven straight games, averaging 30 points since May 25 on 53.1% shooting.

There is absolutely no logic to oddsmakers being so slow to raise her points prop. Will this dominant run end at some point? Sure, all runs do. But Wilson is scoring efficiently on a team that desperately needs her to do so. The workload is not going to lessen.

The Phoenix Mercury have a Bottom 4 defense in the WNBA. It has improved since Brittney Griner’s return last week, but issues still remain, issues Wilson should be able to exploit.

A'ja Wilson prop: Over 27.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)