Best WNBA Player Props Today: Aces Struggle Keeping Up With Jones

Prop bet #1: Ogunbowale Under 24.5 points

Arike Ogunbowale is one of the league’s best guards, but she’s not an efficient offense unto herself. Unfortunately for the Dallas Wings, until Satou Sabaly returns from injury, that’s essentially what she’s being asked to do.

Arike’s always been a volume scorer, but she’s being taxed well beyond even her considerable talents in the absence of Sabally. Not only are the Wings losers of six straight, but Ogunbowale has seen her effective field goal percentage dip to 42.7%, nearly four points worse than her career rate.

When the Wings teams last played the Connecticut Sun on May 31st, Arike had 21 points but it took her 21 shots (she was held to 8-21 from the field). But the telling statistic from that previous game is that she shot just two free throws. If Arike’s shot is not falling — and boy has it not been falling recently — her most reliable form of offense comes from the line. 

In her last seven games, Arike has only scored 25 points or more twice, and one of those where she scored exactly 25 came in a double overtime game against the Phoenix Mercury. The only other time she eclipsed 25 points in the last seven games required 10 free throw attempts.

The Sun are not just one of the most physical teams in the W, they marry that force with an almost unrivaled discipline. Only the New York Liberty allows fewer opponent free throws per game, which spells trouble for Ogunbowale.

This Ogunbowale line seems to be taking her average points per game production for granted, but I think Dijonai Carrington and the Sun are going to put a serious dent in her scoring output.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Under 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Wilson Under 28.5 points

The Las Vegas Aces are floundering, but it’s not anything to do with A’ja Wilson. Wilson is already the owner of two MVPs, but she’s on another planet right now with her scoring at 28.6 points per game on 52.9% effective field goal percentage.

But that’s also dragged these A’ja Wilson odds to unprecedented levels just as she’s set to play one of the best defensive teams in the W, the New York Liberty. New York has arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the league with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, and they are very experienced both individually and collectively when it comes to defending A’ja.

As this is the first time the Aces and Liberty have played this season, the most relevant sample size to consider is their series in the 2023 Finals. A’ja averaged 21.3 points as Stewart played a brilliant defensive series despite struggling with her own offense.

A’ja is the best player in the W and is on the trajectory to be the greatest of all time. But these odds have hit their high watermark. Against a locked-in Liberty team with two of the league’s best defenders, I think the smart play is shorting A’ja’s historic run on Saturday.

A'ja Wilson prop: Under 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Jones Over 15.5 points

Returning to that 2023 Finals, Jonquel Jones was arguably the best Liberty player in the series. She averaged 17.8 points and had at least 16 in three of the four against Las Vegas while shooting just shy of 60% from the field. Jonquel spent most of last season working her way back from a knee injury and learning to play with her new team, but this season she’s come out of the gates scorching. 

Jonquel is one of the league’s most efficient players, shooting 56.7% from the field and 39.3% from downtown. She’s ranked in the Top 10 for true shooting percentage in seven of her eight seasons in the W, and her 67.5% rate this season would be a career-best.

Jones ramped up her scoring volume recently as well and is 20-29 from the field in her last two games. 

Kiah Stokes is starting for the Aces at center, and Jonquel has at least three inches on her and nearly 30 pounds. Stokes is a great defender, but Jonquel can and will play bully ball in the post.

But Jones is special because she can do it at multiple levels. While Stokes is outmatched in the post, it’s certainly her comfort zone. She’ll have even less luck if the Liberty deploy Jones on the perimeter, either playing pick and pop with Stewie or Sabrina Ionescu or setting her up to take transition threes.

With a notable matchup advantage and Courtney Vandersloot out of action, I expect her to maintain her increased aggression from the past few games and eclipse these Jones odds.

Jonquel Jones prop: Over 15.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)