The WNBA title race dodged a seismic shift on Sunday, with tests ruling out any major injury for New York Liberty star Breanna Stewart. But New York still intends to sit her for a few games, certainly tonight against Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings.
These WNBA picks and player prop predictions for Monday, July 28 see value in Stewart’s absence.
WNBA player prop bets for July 28
Jones o15.5 pts (-105)
Diggins o1.5 3s (+125)
Bueckers o6.5 asts (+130)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Jonquel Jones Over 15.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)
The Liberty escaped a worst-case scenario. Losing Breanna Stewart for more than a few games likely would doom New York to the No. 3 seed, a tough pill to swallow given the road demands of the playoffs.
Losing Stewart any longer than that could have crushed the Liberty’s hopes of a repeat title. She is still expected to miss most, if not all, of this road trip, beginning tonight in Dallas.
Without Stewart, New York needs to look elsewhere for interior offense.
The casual fan does not realize Stewart is an inside presence more than anything else, but she has averaged 18.3 points this season while making just 0.6 threes per game. She is an inside presence more than anything else.
Enter Jonquel Jones, the Liberty’s most underappreciated piece. The interior force is No. 3 on the New York roster in usage rate, behind only Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
More touches should be funneled to Jones. Doing so will allow the Liberty offense to keep flowing without changing too much.
Jones has already cleared this prop in two of three games since the All-Star Break. Frankly, it should have moved up by a bucket without Stewart in the rotation tonight.
Skylar Diggins Over 1.5 3-pointers (+125 at Caesars)
The Connecticut Sun pulled off a blowout of an upset yesterday, but do not expect a sequel tonight. The defense is just too abject.
One of the many reasons the Sun have the worst defensive rating in the WNBA is their 3-point defense.
They are allowing opponents to take 25 threes per game, closer to the highest rate in the WNBA than to the No. 3 rate, while those foes make 34.6% of those shots (No. 11 in the WNBA) is a great way to be really bad on defense.
Skylar Diggins is Seattle’s best shooter, outpaced in total by Erica Wheeler by just a touch. That is largely because Diggins has not been chucking of late, going just 1-of-1 on Friday night, for example.
That relative reticence is why this prop sits at plus-money. But against Connecticut, Diggins should default into a more aggressive shot profile.
Paige Bueckers Over 6.5 assists (+130 at DraftKings)
Paige Bueckers is not appreciated enough. Not only has she scored at least 17 points in four of her last five games, but she has also averaged 5.6 assists per game in that stretch.
Sure, she has cleared this prop in only one of those five, but New York’s defense should take a step back tonight due to Stewart’s absence. Her length alone clogs passing lanes.
Again, the casual observer does not recognize this, but next time you see a photo of Stewart, notice how far down her legs her fingertips reach. While she stands 6-foot-4, her wingspan is a preposterous 7-foot-1.
The Liberty defense will still focus on Bueckers, obviously. But with one less stellar defender in the mix, she should spot a few more open passing lanes amid that defensive focus.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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