The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun square off this afternoon in Game 4 of their semifinal series, with the Liberty one win away from their first trip to the WNBA Finals since 2002.
Breanna Stewart broke out of a mini-slump on Friday night to lead New York to a 92-81 road win in Game 3, as the visitors never looked back after building a 37-16 first-quarter lead.
The Sun are on the ropes here, with back-to-back losses taking the gloss off their gritty victory in the series opener, but they got a vintage Alyssa Thomas performance in Game 3, with the MVP runner-up finishing with a 23-9-14 stat line.
Read on for our free WNBA picks for Liberty vs. Sun on October 1.
Liberty vs Sun Game 4 best odds
Liberty vs Sun Game 4 picks and predictions
After watching the New York Liberty’s offensive firepower roll through opponents all year, there was some legitimate shock when the Connecticut Sun held them to just 63 points in Game 1, but the Liberty regrouped after that rough outing and have looked more clinical in each contest since then.
It might be too much of a stretch to say that the visitors have figured out the Sun’s defensive schemes, but New York shot 50% from the field on Friday night with Stewart having easily her best game of the series (25 points on 11-for-19 shooting).
Sabrina Ionescu made four triples in Game 3, Betnijah Laney stepped up with 20 points, and Jonquel Jones had her fifth double-double of the postseason. In short, the Liberty looked like, well, the Liberty.
All of that feels ominous for Connecticut in this must-win Game 4, and I’m picking New York to stay hot in today’s showdown.
Sandy Brondello’s team scored 89 points or more in three of their four meetings with the Sun in the regular season, and they got to 92 points on Friday despite only making nine of their 26 3-pointers.
With the WNBA Finals in sight, I see the Liberty riding its offense again this afternoon and I’m grabbing the Over on the team points total.
My best bet: Liberty team total Over 82.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Liberty vs Sun Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis
After New York flexed its muscles on the road in Game 3, it’s easy to see why the visitors are 5-point favorites this afternoon, especially with the Liberty boasting an 18-3 record away from Barclays Center this year.
However, this is a resilient Connecticut team that’s overcome adversity all year. The hosts are 10-3-1 in its last 14 contests against Eastern Conference foes and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in the Liberty’s last six games playing on one day’s rest and 4-1 in their last five road games. I’m leaning that way — in line with picking the Liberty offense to hit top gear — particularly after Thomas found her shooting stroke on Friday.
Though the Under has hit in four of the Sun’s last five Sunday games, I see the hosts playing their part in a higher-scoring contest here, and they outscored New York over the final three quarters on Friday.
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Liberty vs Sun betting trend to know
Even with the New York offense a little more subdued in the playoffs compared to its 89-point average from the regular season, the Over is 6-1 in the Liberty’s last seven games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun Game 4 game info
|Location:||Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT|
|Date:||Sunday, October 1, 2023|
|Tip-off:||3:00 p.m. ET|
Liberty vs Sun Game 4 key injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Sun: Bernadett Hatar C (Questionable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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