Phoenix Mercury veteran Alyssa Thomas is known for stuffing the stat sheet. Her points production has dipped in June, however, with AT scoring more than 10 points only once in her last seven games.
That’s kept Thomas Under her scoring prop in all but one of those outings, shrinking her point total to a low of 13.5 O/U against the Indiana Fever tonight. That's a 2-point dip from last week's prop numbers.
But with bodies missing in the Phoenix backcourt and the Mercury listed as 7.5-point road underdogs, Thomas needs to pick up the scoring slack, and we saw a glimpse of that in limited work last time out.
Our Mercury vs. Fever predictions buy back Thomas’ slimming scoring totals with my WNBA picks taking AT to top her points prop tonight.
Mercury vs Fever prediction
Mercury vs Fever best bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points (+100)
Alyssa Thomas’ usage dropped from second on the Phoenix Mercury (23.7%) in May to 19.6% through seven appearances in June.
Phoenix has been getting more backcourt production from Monique Akoa Makani and Jovana Nogic, but both are out for the second straight game tonight. That’s more than 20 points missing from the Mercury’s offense.
Thomas looked good with eight points on 4-for-6 shooting against Seattle on Saturday, yet played less than 10 minutes in the second half of that blowout win.
She’ll log her usual minutes tonight, and projections sit at 15+ points, which should have the Over 14.5 priced around -105.
COVERS INTEL: Alyssa Thomas is excellent at picking up points from the foul line (13th in FTA). Indiana has trouble avoiding whistles, leading the WNBA in personal fouls (24.0) and opponent free throws (26.0).
Mercury vs Fever same-game parlay
The Indiana Fever need a win badly after taking two straight losses against Atlanta last week. The Mercury have trouble playing up to the WNBA’s top-tier teams, and missing pieces in the backcourt are magnified when facing the likes of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. Indiana is 6-3 SU at home, where it owns a +8.6 net rating.
Thomas’ scoring has shrunken this month, but with backcourt talents out of action, the veteran needs to pick up the pace with her production. Game models call for 15+, and if AT can bait the Fever into fouls, her scoring ceiling is much higher.
Clark plays a passive perimeter protection from the Mercury, who are missing a bunch of guards. She’s been firing the 3-ball better in recent outings and isn’t afraid to shoot herself out of a slump if need be. She knocked down three triples on seven 3PAs against Atlanta on the weekend.
Mercury vs Fever SGP
- Fever moneyline
- Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points
- Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 threes
Mercury vs Fever player prop pick
Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 threes (+105)
Fever star Caitlin Clark has had a tough time knocking down triples in the first two months of the schedule, but that hasn’t stopped her from taking them.
Clark is jacking up almost eight attempts from beyond the arc, while making an average of only 2.5 of those long-range looks. She’s constantly come up short of her 3-pointer prop, staying below the 2.5 O/U in seven of her last 10 outings.
Those results have swung the vig on Over 2.5 from as far as an expensive -198 to a plus-money proposition, which is what we’re getting tonight, despite the Fever facing the worst perimeter defense in the WNBA.
Phoenix allows foes to bang home a league-high 9.6 makes from distance on 36.6% shooting. That softer defense gives Clark closer shots at the arc, as she’s been lacking accuracy on extra-long looks.
According to Fansided, Clark is shooting almost 47% on attempts between 22 and 25 feet but less than 32% on shots of 26+ feet, which make up most of her 3-pointers. She’s finding her range in recent outings, with 3+ makes from downtown in three of the last six games (shooting 34.8% vs. 32.4%).
Projections for Clark sit right on 2.5 triples against the Mercury, and given the matchup and missing backcourt bodies for Phoenix, I like the Over at +105.
- Best bet: 8-8, -1.05 units
- SGP: 3-12, +0.15 units
Mercury vs Fever odds
- Spread: Mercury +7.5 | Fever -7.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +235 | Fever -290
- Over/Under: Over 177.5 | Under 177.5
Mercury vs Fever trend
The Fever are 6-3 Over/Under at home to start the 2026 season and 32-20-1 O/U as a host going back to 2024 (61.5% Overs). Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Fever
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Monday, June 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA |
Mercury vs Fever latest injuries
Mercury: Monique Akoa Makani G (Out), Jovana Nogic G (Contract Suspended), Sami Whitcomb G (Out).
Fever: Caitlin Clark G (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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