The Minnesota Lynx are being prudent. Despite Napheesa Collier looking like she was enjoying shootaround this morning, the MVP frontrunner has been ruled out for a second straight game due to some back frustrations.
That choice makes sense. The Lynx remain three-bucket favorites against the Washington Mystics tonight, and Minnesota should be favored in the two other remaining games before the Commissioner’s Cup Final in a week. It's more important that Collier’s back sorts itself out before that game.
Nonetheless, my Lynx vs. Mystics predictions and WNBA picks expect Minnesota to handle Washington with ease. There has been an overreaction to Collier’s absence, even if she is the best player in the WNBA.
Lynx vs Mystics predictions
My Lynx vs Mystics best bet: Lynx -7 (-108 at DraftKings)
It remains an unpopular approach. “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” Few people are enthused by the idea of betting on a team because it is without its best player, but they should be.
Napheesa Collier is the best player in the WNBA right now. There is no hole in her game, and she often sets the terms on both ends of the court. The Minnesota Lynx are worse without Collier, but still, bet on them tonight because Collier is sidelined with a back injury.
She was always unlikely to play tonight. Minnesota should not need her to beat the Washington Mystics, and a far more important game looms in a week against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever for a $500,000 payday for the Lynx roster. Collier’s status may have been officially questionable for tonight, but the likelihood of her not playing was always factored into the spread of -11 this morning.
Once Collier was ruled out, the spread plummeted to -7.
If her absence was always included in the spread of -11, then this move to -7 is nothing but rampant overreaction. That is why “Buy on bad news” is solid advice. It runs counter to an overreaction.
Minnesota rewarded this approach on Saturday against the Sparks, Collier’s absence moving that spread by 2.5 or 3 points, and the Lynx then covered all numbers in a 16-point win. They simply have too many offensive options to be limited by lackluster defenses. L.A. ranks No. 10 in defensive rating; Washington sits at No. 8, better by 5.9 points per 100 possessions but still far from intimidating.
Trust Minnesota, even without Napheesa Collier. In fact, trust Minnesota because of Collier’s absence. This spread has simply fallen too far.
Lynx vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -7
Sonia Citron Over 13.5 points
Under 158
The real want was to include some Kayla McBride props. The world has yet to realize how well she is playing, despite going 5-for-7 from deep and scoring 29 points in that win on Saturday. When Lynx player props are finally available again this afternoon, jump on McBride Overs to the tune of 21 points and three 3-pointers.
As long as those remain unavailable, though, betting on Sonia Citron makes sense. The rookie has cleared this prop in both her last two games, going 6-for-14 from long range as she does so. Minnesota is down the best defender in the world tonight, and that should give Citron a few extra clean looks.
Including the Under 158 is done for two reasons. First of all, it quickly escalates this SGP thanks to the counterintuitive pairing of the Under with Citron’s Over. Secondly, both these teams have trended toward the Under this season.
Lynx vs Mystics odds
Lynx vs Mystics live odds
Lynx vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -6.5 | Washington +6.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -310 | Washington +240
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Lynx vs Mystics trend
The Lynx have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three and 5-1 ATS in their last six. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mystics.
How to watch Lynx vs Mystics
| Location | CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Monumental Sports Network, FDSN - North |
Lynx vs Mystics latest injuries
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Out).
Mystics: Georgia Amoore (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
