Riding a five-game win streak, the Phoenix Mercury are the hottest team in the WNBA, and they’ll look to extend their win streak tonight when the East’s top team, New York Liberty, visit PHX Arena.
New York has struggled defensively as of late, and my Liberty vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks for Friday, June 27, expect plenty of points and a frontcourt battle between opposing teams’ top forwards.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My Liberty vs Mercury best bet: Breanna Stewart Over 31.5 points, rebounds, & assists (-125 at bet365)
Breanna Stewart has been rolling, so I have no problem going back to the well for another combo line. New York Liberty’s star forward posted a 23/10/3 line in her last game out, but her PRA total hasn’t risen at all from 31.5. There’s value to be had here.
Stewart is averaging 21 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game this season, good for 30.5 PRA. In five games without Jonquel Jones on the court, she’s posted 22 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists, good for 33.8 PRA. Stewie’s points increased minimally with Jones out of action, but her rebounds and assists rose considerably.
Jones will be out of action for the foreseeable future, giving Stewie another chance to shine tonight at Phoenix. In the five games played without Jones this season, she hit the Over three times and finished with 30 and 31 PRA in the other two.
Stewart played tremendously against the Phoenix Mercury in her first meeting of 2025, dropping a season-high 35 points to go with three rebounds and two assists. She cleared the Over on this line in each of her last two trips to Phoenix and in five of her last seven games against the Mercury overall.
The Liberty haven’t been great defensively as of late, and the Mercury have surged on offense. Stewart’s full array of scoring, rebounding and facilitating will be needed tonight to get back on track and secure an upset win on the road.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Breanna Stewart Over 31.5 points, rebounds & assists
Satou Sabally Over 28.5 points, rebounds, & assists
Over 166.5
Satou Sabally is enjoying the best statistical season of her career, sporting averages of 19.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists, good for 30 PRA. She’s been far more productive at home, averaging 32.2 PRA at PHX Arena compared to 27.5 PRA across all other venues.
She hit the Over in nine of her first 12 games of the season, including seven of eight at home, but she’s failed to hit 29 PRA in each of her last three - all on the road. A return home should mean a bump in production.
Over the last five games, the Mercury sport the top offensive rating in the WNBA at 111.4, while the Liberty sport the fourth-worst defensive rating at 107.6. Phoenix has hit the Over in six of its last seven, and New York has hit that mark in five of its last seven.
Both teams have gone Over in eight games, and they totaled 170 points in the first meeting of the season. I expect a lot of points in tonight’s clash of titans.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York +1.5 (-110) | Phoenix +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +100 | Phoenix -120
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Mercury trend
The Liberty are 0-5 ATS across their last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
How to watch Liberty vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, 6-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ION |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: Jonquel Jone (ankle) out.
Mercury: Alexa Held (chest) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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