The first big prize of the WNBA season is up for grabs tonight at Target Center as the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx collide in the Commissioner’s Cup final, but uncertainty over Caitlin Clark’s status hovers over this marquee matchup.
It’s been a stop-start year for Clark, who’s missed time with a quad injury and now a groin issue, and the fact that she’s listed as questionable adds some mystery to the WNBA player props market.
There are fewer question marks around Napheesa Collier and the Lynx, who boast a league-best 14-2 record, and my WNBA picks break down this July 1 battle.
Best Fever vs Lynx props
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Courtney Williams Over 12.5 points (-114) 
Aliyah Boston Over 15.5 points (+100)- Natasha Howard Under 5.5 rebounds (-115)
Fever vs Lynx player props for July 1
Courtney Williams Over 12.5 points (-114 FanDuel)
It’s an ominous sign for the rest of the WNBA that the Minnesota Lynx is off to such a fast start, despite Courtney Williams only just starting to join the party as a scorer consistently.
But Williams has found her stroke now, and she’s gone past this 12.5 number in four of her last six outings. Plus, she would have surely eased to the Over on Sunday too if the Lynx hadn’t overwhelmed the Connecticut Sun in a lopsided blowout that meant she played just 25 minutes.
The Minnesota guard loves the bright lights, especially at home, and I expect her to be aggressive with a trophy on the line. She’s knocked down 12 of her 24 shots across her past two contests, and her 3-point mark is up to 39% overall (after a 33% season in 2024).
Buckle up for plenty of offense here – the Lynx ranked second with 85.3 PPG, the Fever are fourth at 84.1 PPG – and Williams’ ability to score at all three levels is one of the reasons that Minnesota arrives as the favorite.
Aliyah Boston Over 15.5 points (+100 FanDuel)
As much as the Indiana Fever would love to lift the Commissioner’s Cup, there has to be some caution around Caitlin Clark – whether that’s sitting her out altogether or limiting her minutes. Indiana basketball fans have already seen the risk of playing through an injury with the Tyrese Haliburton Achilles tear, and I prefer to look elsewhere for high-value Fever picks.
Regardless of Clark’s status, Aliyah Boston is poised for another big stat line. She’s raised her game over the past two weeks, averaging 21.4 PPG across her last five contests, including a 31-point gem against the Seattle Storm last week, and I’m grabbing this price for Over 15.5 points here.
The third-year forward has taken her efficiency up a notch this year, with a 60% mark from the field, and she’ll be asked to create buckets in the paint as well as battling Napheesa Collier at the other end of the floor.
Foul trouble is the main red flag here, but Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have done a nice job stabilizing the Indy offense, and that fearlessness should carry over to tonight on the road.
Natasha Howard Under 5.5 rebounds (-115 DraftKings)
It’s been a boom-or-bust year for Natasha Howard on the glass. Though she grabbed 13 rebounds on Friday in the victory over the Dallas Wings, the Under on 5.5 boards has been a winning ticket in seven of her last 10 games.
I’m buying into that trend and fading Howard’s tally on the glass tonight against a Minnesota team that boasts three Top 25 rebounders in Collier, Jessica Shepard, and Alanna Smith. There just won’t be anything easy around the rim for Indiana.
Though the Commissioner’s Cup final spotlight could cut into the shooting numbers, this feels like a matchup where scorers on both teams will get to their spots, limiting the rebounding numbers as a result.
We’ve also seen Howard log fewer than 25 minutes in four of her past seven outings, including high-profile battles with the Seattle Storm and New York Liberty. The Fever may need her scoring (11.2 PPG) more than her rebounding here anyway, particularly if Clark remains out.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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