No team in the WNBA has had a worse start to the season than the 0-6 Washington Mystics, who welcome the 2-2 Atlanta Dream to town.
Despite being on the road, the WNBA odds have Atlanta as a 3-point favorite led by one of the league’s top scorers.
Find out where my best bets lie in our WNBA picks and Dream vs. Mystics predictions on Wednesday, May 29.
Dream vs Mystics predictions
My best bet
Rhyne Howard Over 20.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Since the Atlanta Dream drafted Rhyne Howard with the No. 1 pick in the 2022 WNBA Draft, they’ve gone just 35-45. However, they’ve improved each season as Howard has ascended to be one of the biggest scoring threats in the league.
While it’s early in the season, this looks like the best Dream team yet with Howard helping it rank third in offensive rating (107.8) behind her 21 points per game. She not only ranks Top 10 in scoring this season, but she’s been one of the most lethal 3-point shooters.
Howard’s hitting three 3-pointers per game, fifth-most in the WNBA, and shooting a career best 38.7% from behind the arc. The two-time All-Star appears to have taken another step forward with her game in her third season, and the Washington Mystics don’t look like a team capable of slowing her down.
Washington ranks fourth-last in defensive rating this season (106.0) and is allowing the fifth-most points per game (84.5) in the WNBA. It’s a defense that’s struggled all over the court, allowing the second-highest field goal percentage to opponents (47%), but has been at its worst inside the arc.
The Mystics are allowing the highest 2-point percentage in the WNBA (56.6%) and that should allow Howard to get to the rim. Among the biggest guards in the league at 6-foot-2, Howard’s combo of size and shooting efficiency make her just as big of a mismatch driving to the bucket or pulling up in the mid-range as it does a 3-point threat.
She’s already topped 20.5 points in three of four games this season and the Mystics are among the worst defense’s she’ll face all year.
Coming off its ugliest defensive performance of the season (allowing 101 points to the Seattle Storm), it doesn’t look like Washington will be ready to stop the scoring prowess of Howard.
Dream vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Rhyne Howard Over 20.5 points
Ariel Atkins Over 13.5 points
Julie Vanloo Over 5.5 assists
What should help keep the Mystics in this game against the Dream is Atlanta’s issues defensively. They rank just 10th in defensive rating (107.8) and are allowing the fourth-most points per game (84.8).
That will open the door for Ariel Atkins to have a big night for Washington. The two-time All-Star leads the team in points per game with 12.3 and has topped 13.5 points in three of six games thus far. Her 3-point shooting can come in handy against an Atlanta squad that’s allowing 8.3 threes per game.
Setting her up to score will be Julie Vanloo. The 31-year-old came from the Turkish Super League to play her first season in the WNBA with the Mystics. She’s already proven her worth with a team-leading 5.5 assists per game and is averaging 7.3 in her last three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Mystics odds
Dream vs Mystics live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Dream vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta -5.5 | Washington +5.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -148 | Washington +129
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Dream vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dream opened favored by as many as 5.5 points with the line since coming down to between 3 and 3.5 at most books.
- Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS this season while Washington is 3-2-1.
- The Over/Under opened at 162.5 and has seen plenty of movement with most books sitting at 164.5 as the game approaches.
- The Dream are among the best Over teams in the WNBA at 3-1, but the Mystics are in the middle of the pack at 3-3.
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Dream vs Mystics trend
The Over is 4-1 in the Dream’s last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mystics.
Dream vs Mystics game info
| Location: | Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 29, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MNMT, Peachtree |
Dream vs Mystics latest injuries
Dream: J. Canada (Out).
Mystics: B. Sykes (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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