The Phoenix Mercury battled back from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit in Game 3 before ultimately falling to the Las Vegas Aces on an A’ja Wilson game winner.
My Aces vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect the visiting team to break out the brooms on October 9.
Aces vs Mercury predictions
My Aces vs Mercury best bet: Aces -2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
The Las Vegas Aces have won six of their last seven games, covering the spread in five of them.
The Phoenix Mercury had a chance to win Game 1 before letting a small fourth-quarter lead disappear in the waning seconds of the contest.
Las Vegas cruised to a double-digit victory in Game 2, and the Aces were on the brink of a blowout before Phoenix stormed back late in Game 3. Enter A’ja Wilson, who hit the biggest shot of the season to ice the game for Vegas.
Wilson is the best player in the W, and it’s not particularly close. On the brink of a third championship, I expect her to bring her A game in Game 4 and close out the series on the road.
She’s gotten excellent support from do-it-all guard Chelsea Gray and elite scoring option Jackie Young. Jewell Loyd — a two-time champ herself — has been great off the bench and shined in Game 3.
Phoenix’s leading scorer in the series, Satou Sabally, suffered a head injury late in Game 3, and her status for Game 4 is questionable. Her health concerns move the needle further in Las Vegas’ direction.
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces -2.5
A'ja Wilson Over 40.5 points+rebounds+assists
DeWanna Bonner Over 20.5 points+rebounds
Wilson has been masterful across her last five games, averaging 44.8 PRA in that span and hitting the Over on this line four times.
She’s done so in two straight, including Wednesday’s monster 34/14/4 performance. I’m not counting on her hot streak ending in Friday’s closeout contest.
With Satou Sabally banged up and potentially out for Game 4, DeWanna Bonner may need to handle a larger workload. She was tremendous on Wednesday, posting a season-high 25 points to go with 10 rebounds in 31 minutes off the bench.
Aces vs Mercury odds
Aces vs Mercury live odds
Aces vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -1.5 (-115) | Phoenix +1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -125 | Phoenix +105
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Aces vs Mercury trend
Las Vegas has won five straight games at Phoenix, winning four of them by at least three points. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, October 10, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Mercury: Satou Sabally (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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