UFC 298 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Nakamura Not Paid By the Hour

UFC 298 takes place tonight at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, and a featherweight title fight for the ages in Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria. Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa also return to the octagon and are set to face off in a long-delayed bout.

On the prelims, we expect Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Miranda Maverick, and Rinya Nakamura to make a big splash before the show.

After looking through the UFC odds, here are my free picks from the UFC 298 preliminaries.

UFC 298 prelim picks and predictions

de Lima vs. Tafa
• Prediction: de Lima ML (-145 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: De Lima by KO/TKO/DQ (+210 at Bet99)

Nakamura vs. Vera
• Prediction: Nakamura ML (-1,100 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Nakamura in Round 1 (+175 at Bet99)

Lee vs. Maverick
• Prediction: Maverick ML (-190 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-325 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 298 prelim odds and picks

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Justin Tafa fight odds

Method of Victory	de Lima	Tafa
To win outright	-240	+195
To win by KO/TKO	OTB	OTB
To win by points	OTB	OTB
To win by submission	OTB	OTB
Draw	OTB	OTB

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 17, 2024.

You can’t help but feel bad for de Lima, who remains a filler fighter though possesses the talent to be so much more. On paper, this should be a breeze for him as Tafa is woefully unequipped to handle the competition in the UFC, but as we saw against Derrick Lewis blasting him out with a flying knee of all things, de Lima should never be a lock. That said, he’s the more varied fighter in this bout and should come in with that awareness that eluded him against Lewis.

Tafa just isn’t that good of a fighter where he can break out of this current level. Unless he catches de Lima with a big shot, and that’s not entirely impossible, he isn’t going to escape the first round if de Lima is intent on coming after him.

I expect de Lima to put forward a strong performance and get Tafa out of there by the end of the first round.

Prediction: de Lima moneyline (-145 at Bet99)
Best Bet: de Lima to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+210 at Bet99)

Rinya Nakamura vs Carlos Vera fight odds

Method of Victory	Nakamura	Vera
To win outright	-1,200	+640
To win by KO/TKO	+115	+3,300
To win by points	+195	+1,300
To win by submission	+270	+3,500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 17, 2024.

The undefeated Nakamura might end up being a force to be reckoned with in the UFC, and he’s primed for a prime-time showing vs. Vera, who replaces Brady Hiestand with minimal notice.

Nakamura is a fantastic grappler who is going up against an opponent that struggles against takedowns. Not only that, the southpaw has demonstrated stopping power in the regional circuit, so he'll be able to handle himself fine in the event that Vera somehow manages to avoid getting grinded out or put on the mat.

The call here is that Nakamura takes care of business against an easy mark, taking care of business in the first round.

Prediction: Nakamura moneyline (-1,100 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Nakamura in Round 1 (+175 at Bet99)

Andrea Lee vs Miranda Maverick fight odds

Method of Victory	Lee	Maverick
To win outright	+160	-200
To win by KO/TKO	+1,350	+950
To win by points	+225	+110
To win by submission	+1,700	+440
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 17, 2024.

This clash of inconsistent fighters serves as a must-win for both. Maverick hopes to get back on track with her second win in a row, and Lee has been in a tailspin over the last four years. A quick look at this bout suggests that Maverick’s wrestling should be enough to down Lee, not to mention her recent form is that much more impressive than Lee’s.

However, Maverick can make poor decisions and lose fights that seem perfect for her. She hasn’t graduated past the prospect stage of her career, and while that may be troubling later, Lee is a stepping stone for fighters on the come-up. While it wouldn’t be shocking if Maverick forgets her wrestling and tries to bang it out with Lee, she should find her assignment that much easier if she sticks to grappling.

Prediction: Maverick moneyline (-190 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-325 at Bet99)

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