UFC 264 Poirier vs McGregor 3 Picks: McGregor Has Good Value Again

Apr 19, 2021 |
UFC 264 Poirier vs McGregor 3 Picks: McGregor Has Good Value Again
After being upset by Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 in January, Conor McGregor is the -126 favorite to avenge that defeat at the main event of UFC 264 in July—the third bout between these fighters.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
After being upset by Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 in January, Conor McGregor is the -126 favorite to avenge that defeat at the main event of UFC 264 in July—the third bout between these fighters.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor is the main event for UFC 264 betting on July 10 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

This is a highly anticipated trilogy fight following Poirier's upset win over Notorious at UFC 257 in January.

With the two lightweight contenders splitting their first two bouts, oddsmakers are expecting a close fight in the rematch with UFC betting lines installing McGregor as a slim -126 favorite while Poirier comes back at +105.

Here are our best free UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 picks and predictions for July 10.

Poirier vs McGregor 3 fight odds

Method of Victory Dustin Poirier Conor McGregor
Win Outright +105 -126
Win by KO/TKO +210 +110
Win by Points +550 +750
Win by Submission +950 +2,800
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Poirier vs McGregor 3 betting preview

Conor "Notorious" McGregor and Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier first squared off in the featherweight division in 2014, with McGregor winning via first-round knockout. 

Poirier avenged that defeat with a second-round TKO win against McGregor in January and he is now 7-1 with a no-contest in his last nine fights.

The 32-year-old is a very strong all-around fighter that combines high-level boxing with good grappling ability. 

Covers UFC 264 Betting Analysis

McGregor has a career MMA record of 22-5 with 19 knockouts but has fought in the UFC just three times since 2017 as the Irishman has pursued interests outside the octagon.

Prior to his defeat against Poirier, McGregor flashed his trademark striking ability with a 40-second knockout of Donald Cerrone in January of 2020.

Notorious can attack in a variety of ways and overwhelms opponents with his pressure and explosive power. 

Poirier vs McGregor 3 tale of the tape

Dustin Poirier   Conor McGregor
32 Age 32
5-foot-9 Height 5-foot-9
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
72 inches Reach 74 inches
27-6-0 (14 KO) Record 22-5-0 (19 KO)

Poirier vs McGregor 3 UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: McGregor to win (-126) - Despite McGregor's elite striking ability, I bet on Poirier at +265 in their previous meeting because I didn't think the odds were anywhere near an accurate reflection of the small disparity between these two fighters.

But now that these odds are much closer, there is plenty of value in backing McGregor coming off a loss. Keep in mind that Notorious showed his trademark striking for much of the first round at UFC 257, landing some heavy shots with his left hand and rocking Poirier with shoulders in the clinch. 

The big problem for McGregor was that he didn't defend Poirier's calf kicks which led to him eventually losing his mobility and getting starched by a flurry of punches. By the second round, McGregor started to check a few of those leg kicks and even got his timing down and caught two of them, but the damage had already been done. 

One thing that I really liked about McGregor was his attitude after the loss, admitting that "you don’t get away with being inactive in this business." He seems to have a renewed focus on the sport and if he learns from his mistakes in January and adapts to those low kicks he has the talent to win this. 

PREDICTION: Poirier by submission (+950) - While I think McGregor ends up taking this bout, I also think there is value in sprinkling a little bit of money on Poirier to win via this prop bet.

The Diamond has seven submission wins in his career and while most of those came earlier in his career, he has been making plenty of attempts lately.

Poirier had a pair of submission attempts against Eddie Alvarez in 2018, made four attempts versus Dan Hooker last year, and even had a tight guillotine choke against Khabib Nurmagomedov, which the former champ escaped from.

It would be very tough for Poirier to win with the same blueprint he used in January so expect him to use his grappling advantage in this bout. With four of McGregor's five career losses coming by submission, don't be shocked if that happens again.

PREDICTION: Fight to start Round 3 - Yes (+100) - The first two fights between these stars ended early but there's reason to think this bout might go a bit longer. At UFC 257 Poirier showed how much his durability has improved since that early-career knockout by McGregor and he ate some big shots while slowing down the striking exchanges with his wrestling ability. 

Expect McGregor to be a bit more sound defensively himself as he should be more cautious about trying to walk through Poirier's strikes and will look to defend those calf kicks. I don't think this fight lasts anywhere near the full 25 minutes but being able to bet it to go at least 10 minutes at plus money is worth it. 

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available.

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