Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker Predictions, Picks & Odds

Arman Tsarukyan takes on Dan Hooker in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday in Qatar.

Tsarukyan was booked to fight for the lightweight title earlier this year but withdrew at the last minute due to a back injury. Dana White has essentially punished the No. 1 contender by having him fight the No. 7-ranked Hooker before getting another title shot. 

Still, he's expected to make short work of his opponent with UFC odds installing him as a -600 favorite. Here are my best Tsarukyan vs. Hooker predictions and free betting picks for November 22. 

Tsarukyan vs Hooker prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Tsarukyan moneyline (-600 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Tsarukyan by KO/TKO or Decision (-210 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Arman Tsarukyan made his UFC debut on short notice against Islam Makhachev in 2019. That loss has aged extremely well in hindsight since Islam has gone on to become a two-division champ, and Tsarukyan went the distance while earning a Fight of the Night bonus.

Since then, he's gone 9-1 with the only defeat during that span coming in a decision against Mateusz Gamrot, where 15 of 22 media outlets scored the bout in his favor. 

Dan Hooker is on a three-fight win streak, with his last two victories coming by split decision against Jalin Turner and Gamrot. Before his recent win streak, Hooker had dropped four of his previous five bouts, with three of those losses coming by first-round finish. 

He's a crisp striker with a Muay Thai background, but Tsarukyan can match him in the standup thanks to his dangerous kicks and heavy hands. The biggest gap between these fighters comes on the mat, where Tsarukyan has high-end wrestling and grappling ability. 

Tsarukyan averages 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is particularly impressive since his resume is stacked with fights against elite grapplers. He's coming off a win against former champ Charles Oliveira, whom he controlled for almost nine minutes in a 15-minute bout.

Meanwhile, Hooker was fortunate to get a split decision against Gamrot, where he was taken down five times. If Tsarukyan can land takedowns, he'll win rounds with control or unleash vicious ground-and-pound. 

Best bet analysis
While Tsarukyan is an elite grappler, he has never even attempted a submission across 11 UFC fights. He typically uses his wrestling to establish control or use ground-and-pound.

Hooker has taken plenty of punishment in his career, and he can get cracked with three losses coming by knockout. Four of Tsarukyan's last six wins have come by KO/TKO, and I could see him either finding Hooker's chin or winning by decision.

Betting Tsarukyan on the moneyline at -600 is a lot of chalk to swallow against a tough veteran like Hooker, but getting that number down to -210 with this double method to win prop is much more palatable. 

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Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker odds

Method of Victory	Tsarukyan	Hooker
To win outright	-500	+365
To win by KO/TKO	+165	+750
To win by decision	+240	+640
To win by submission	+375	+1600
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 11-20.

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Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker tale of the tape

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